Ike Davis has been out so long that we almost forget how good he was the first six weeks of the season. Since then, the Mets have been in survival mode, trying to keep alive in the Wild Card race until Davis and David Wright return. But much like in 2009, we face the real possibility that the injured star – in this case Davis – might be lost for the season.
Earlier, we were wondering how the Mets would handle things when the big guns returned because Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada and Justin Turner were all hitting well. Since then they have all cooled off to varying degrees and another variable has been added to the mix.
Lucas Duda has been promoted and in his last start had a four-hit game.
Jerry Manuel had many faults as a manager but one thing he did right is that he did not bury young players. Duda looked completely overmatched when he came up last year, but Manuel stuck with him and at the end of the year, Duda started hitting with authority.
In his first 37 plate appearances, Duda had just one hit, a double. That resulted in a .030/.135/.061 slash line. Manuel could have easily put someone else in the lineup at this point, but he believed in Duda and kept writing his name in the lineup card. In his final 55 PA, Duda posted a .314/.345/.647 line, with 4 HR and nine extra-base hits.
It’s easy to say this was a slump followed by a hot streak. Overall, Duda had a .678 OPS last year, which is nothing to get excited about from a corner bat. But what has been talked about frequently this year in regards to Duda is confidence. Perhaps Duda got confidence last year from Manuel sticking with him. Perhaps finally getting some regular at-bats here in June is doing the same thing for Duda’s belief in himself.
So, now that Duda seems to be finding his confidence again, what happens now? It’s a little easier to get him in the lineup now, with interleague games. But when the Mets go back to an exclusive NL-only schedule and Wright returns, how do the Mets get him consistent playing time?
My idea is a Duda-Turner platoon.
Against RHP, Duda plays first base and Muphy plays second. Against LHP, Murphy plays first base and Turner plays second. I expect that this idea will be met with resistance, as people still think Turner should be playing every day. And there are still some who balk at Murphy playing anywhere except first base.
But the Mets need Duda’s bat in the lineup for his long ball potential. While Duda has yet to hit a HR in 65 PA in the majors this year, he had three doubles in his last start and it seems like a homer is just around the corner. Duda also had a big homerless-stretch last year before breaking out.
Having a Duda-Turner platoon keeps from burying Turner, as he knows when he’ll be in the lineup and it will give him the platoon advantage in most of his at-bats, giving him the chance to break out of his slump. Plus, with Turner’s ability to hit with RISP, he provides a nice pinch-hitting option late in games where he starts on the bench.
So, if the Mets need Duda’s power, why not a Murphy-Turner platoon?
Here’s how our three players have performed in June:
Duda – .297/.333/.405 in 42 PA
Murphy – .318/.347/.386 in 95 PA
Turner – .198/.298/.272 in 95 PA
Plus here is how Duda and Murphy have performed overall this year versus LHP:
Duda – .222/.300/.333 in 10 PA
Murphy – .296/.304/.389 in 56 PA
In more than twice the playing time overall in June, Murphy has been every bit as productive as Duda and this is despite a 3-25 stretch in the middle of the month. Plus, Murphy has hit better versus southpaws in more playing time. Murphy has earned the right to be in the lineup on a regular basis with his play over the entire 2011 season. Duda’s recent hot streak has earned him additional time.
If Duda continues to hit, then maybe he can become a full-time player. But right now a platoon gives him the necessary ABs and puts him in the best position to succeed. Plus, despite his lousy play in June, Turner does not deserve to be buried and he needs a chance to be on the field.
Tejada becomes the odd man out here and he should go back to the minors where he can play every day once Wright returns. But this is still a couple of weeks away and Tejada still has time to make his case to remain in the majors.
Meanwhile, I am going to dream about Jason Bay, Duda and Wright combining for 30+ HR after the All-Star break. If the Mets can be 20-18 with Wright out of the lineup and the offense providing no home runs – just imagine what the Mets could do with some long ball threats around.
Your right on again Brian. Duda needs the time also because Beltran may not be here on Aug 1st and apparently not next year. That is why I would mix him in to LF with Bay also. Turner is hurt and I believe that is why the drastic drop in average (I expected him to drop off none the less) but the man does smell the rib eye steaks. Tejada is the odd man out but at this point I would keep him around for defense and confidence after all he may be our starting SS in 2012 (I hope Not, but …). When this decision needs to be made, around 7/15, there will only be 6 weeks left in the minors, so keep the kid up, he earned it.
Hey Metsense – as always, thanks for reading and commenting!
If you don’t send down Tejada – who do you send down/release when Wright comes back?
Harris, because offensively Pridie and Harris are similar but Pridie is better defensively. Harris is not the future, Pridie may be the team’s 5th OF in 2012.
Another more prudent move may be to see if you can move an OF in a trade.