Mets Notes: Murphy defense, grand slams and Pelfrey’s xFIP

Conventional wisdom coming into the 2011 season was that Daniel Murphy could hit a little but fielding problems would prevent him from ever being a big contributor to a major league team. Now at the beginning of July, injuries have made Murphy the team’s cleanup hitter and no one is disappointed when he comes to the plate.

Overall for the season, he’s batting .303/.348/.426 and in his last 40 games, he has a .359/.387/.458 slash line for an .845 OPS over his last 163 PA. Heading into the season, Murphy had a .275/.331/.437 line with the Mets. So his .774 OPS this season is right in line with what he had done previously in the majors.

But what has been glossed over lately is his defense. Before the year, many people acted like Murphy played with his glove on the wrong hand. You don’t hear those complaints now. This year Murphy has played 100 or more innings at three different positions. Here are his numbers at each of those slots:

Position	Innings	DRS	UZR
1B	301.2	1	1.2
2B	167.0	-4	1.8
3B	100.2	3	1.0

Defensive numbers typically take larger samples than batting numbers to produce reliable results. Still, it’s important to note that Murphy is far from the sieve he was portrayed to be earlier in the year. Defensive Runs Saved has him as a neutral fielder overall this year while UZR shows him four runs above average.

The bottom line is that Murphy’s defense should not be viewed as a huge detriment no matter where he plays in the infield.

THE .500 METS: By salvaging the last game of the year against the Yankees, the Mets climbed back to .500 with a 42-42 record. All things considered, .500 is a good mark for the Mets given what’s happened this year and the schedule they have played. But most people don’t realize how .500 this team actually is. All told there are seven splits in which the Mets are .500 after 82 games.

Vs. NL East: 15-15
Vs. NL Central: 10-10
Vs. NL West: 8-8
Interleague: 9-9
Extra innings: 4-4
Vs. >/= .500 teams: 25-25
Vs. <.500 teams: 17-17

BAY, PAGAN SIMILARITIES: Mets outfielders Jason Bay and Angel Pagan have both missed considerable time this year and have turned in disappointing seasons. But their overall batting lines are also eerily similar, especially for two guys who do not appear to have similar skill sets. Here are their 2011 numbers:

	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	Runs	RBIs	SB	DRS	fWAR
Bay	244	.248	.333	.332	31	23	8	9	0.6
Pagan	232	.250	.335	.350	29	24	14	2	1.0

Even though Bay has saved more runs, Pagan takes the edge defensively for playing the tougher position.

BASES LOADED MAGIC: Earlier, I lamented the Mets’ performance with the bases loaded. But this past week the Mets broke a grand slam drought by hitting two in the same game. This newfound success with the bases juiced caught everyone off guard. The Mets now have a .312/.330/.494 slash line with the sacks full and in 91 PA they have scored 70 runs. The Mets now rank third in the NL in runs scored with the bases loaded and their .823 OPS ranks fifth.

RAINING HR ON PELF: Mike Pelfrey has surrendered home runs in six straight starts and has given up 15 HR in 100.2 IP this season. He has a 10.7 HR/FB ratio and a 1.34 HR/9 mark, both career-worst numbers. Pelfrey has typically been very stingy with the long ball throughout his career and needs a low HR/FB, one below 7.0, rate to be successful.

xFIP calculates all pitchers with a normalized HR rate. Since Pelfrey typically has a lower than average HR/FB mark, his xFIPs are above his FIPs. But this year, with all of the HR allowed, it’s the exact opposite, with his xFIP (4.43) lower than his FIP (4.75) which just uses the actual HR rate of the pitcher.

Most people view Pelfrey’s season so far as a disappointment. But xFIP shows Pelfrey as the same pitcher he’s always been. Here are his year-by-year xFIPs, starting with 2008 when he became a full-time starter:

4.45
4.47
4.31
4.43

That’s outstanding consistency to go along with mediocre results. Given my track record with Pelfrey, you should now expect him to rip off five straight great starts. I’m here to help.