The curtain is down, the peanut shells have been swept out to the wind and another October arrives with no further Mets baseball. If the last two months were an indication of – as Leo Durocher was so fond of saying – “the real Mets,” the end of the year comes as sweet relief. From August 9 onward, the boys in blue & orange were a boring 20-28. I was going to call the finish “ghastly,” but it didn’t warrant even that much passion. Dancing on the edge of mediocrity for the better part of two months is nobody’s idea of how to end a summer. And if an exclamation point can be added to ennui, then that was what we saw in the season finale: Jose Reyes winning the batting title while simultaneously collecting splinters. A tempest in a teapot, to be sure, but still…He could’ve given the fans a chance to do the “JOSE! JOSEJOSEJOSE!” chant one more time before he heads for more hospitable climes. I just hope he knows how much he will be missed by most sectors of the fan base if he does go off packing.
And so, once again, earlier than we’d like, we turn our gaze to the season hence. Since Awful August, we’ve tried to get a bead on just what 2012 might look like. As ever and as with most teams, next season will be the success to which the starting pitching allows it to be. In its current state, the rotation begs five questions for five spots:
1 – Will Johan be Johan? 
If Johan Santana can come back at all and be close to what he had been, the staff is in significantly better shape than we think. BUT… Scuttlebutt right now is that he will be on an innings limit. Just how many innings that is will determine how Johanic he will need to be. If he’s capped at 30 starts, he’d better be Johan the Magnificent in 26 or 27 of them.
2 – Can Jonathon Niese finish a year? Ever? Niese has shown flashes of ability that may lead one to think he could be a big-time pitcher. He also has the peripherals to back it up. The bugaboo is keeping him on the field, as he’s exited the last three seasons before the Ides of August.
3 – Can a knuckleballer be an ace? I know people will cite Hall-Of-Famer Phil Niekro for the Atlanta Braves in the 70’s, but they were the Braves before they were THE BRAVES. They won the very first NL West title in 1969, then nothing until 1991, by which time Niekro was long gone, having received little or no support from the bats or the defense. 
It took signing as a free agent with the Yankees – who else? – to get him into another pennant race. R.A. Dickey may suffer a similar fate – which would be a shame.
4 – Whither Gee, Capuano and Pelfrey? I’ve lumped these three into one question, seeing as all of them are basically number fives. The Mets will need two of them — owing to possible injury scenarios — to pitch like a three. A pretty tall order.
5 – Are the kids alright? Matt Harvey, Jenrry Mejia, Jenurys Familia…It’s possible, but highly improbable that any one of these three baby arms rockets himself into the rotation in 2012. I think that’s a pipe dream and 2012 will be a holding action until Mejia/Harvey mature and make the club in ‘13
All in all, barring any miracles Sandy Alderson may conjure between now and April, the starting staff looks to be pretty much the same as the end of 2011.
And look how well that turned out…
Only 107 pitchers logged at least 150 IP this year. By that measure, all Mets were #4 starters or better.
If we drop it down to 100 IP, we get 145 pitchers. Pelfrey ranked 117th in ERA among starters with at least 100 IP, which makes him a 4th SP by ERA. He was a #2 by IP, so what do you call him? I’m not sure what, but it’s not a #5.
It may be a nitpick, but I think everyone misjudges how bad 5th SP are. I think it would be more accurate to call the Mets’ guys 4th starters rather than 5th starters. And it was an asset to not have a “true” 5th SP.
The Mets only had 13 starts by pitchers other than their regular 5 guys, and 4 of those were by Chris Young. Just compare that to 2010, when the Mets had just 4 regular guys and had 44 starts made by other guys.
The pitching seemed bad this year but it easily could have been worse – much worse.
The pitching really was that bad this year. Yes some guys tossed a lot of innings but many of those innings were bad but who else did the Met’s have?
Capuano gives you 5 strong innings then is gone maybe the bullpen would be a better spot for him?
Gee a solid 4/5 pitcher nothing more.
Niese who in the world thinks he is a number 1/2 pitcher he tops out as a number 3 pitcher at best and that is if he can stay on the field.
Dickey a nice guy to have around for a change of pace a good number 3/4 pitcher.
Pelfrey its time for him to move on before his whole career is wasted in NY he just can’t handle the pressure.
I say make Reyes an offer of no more than 5 years and if he turns that down the Met’s spend their money on pitching, pitching and more pitching that’s what wins
I agree with Brian: Gee, Capuano and Pelfry are #4 starting pitchers. Most teams would love to have them as there 5th starters and that is why I have always seen value in them. There are not enough starting pitchers in baseball. The Mets have offensive players that when packaged with any one of these pitchers could bring back a better, front end of the rotation pitcher. Pitching wins, and the Mets could improve their rotation with some good trades and thus improve the team.