Yesterday we learned that the Dodgers wanted to acquire Daniel Murphy from the Mets during the Winter Meetings but the trade never materialized because the Dodgers’ trading partner “satisfied its need elsewhere.” The Mets acquired a defensive-first outfielder and three relief pitchers during the Winter Meetings. So, who were the Dodgers offering for Murphy?
Yes, he’s the son of Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn. But talent does not always run in the family in equal quantities. For every talented sibling or father-son duo that you can name, I can name two that had a huge discrepancy. Bobby and Barry Bonds were both great. Dale Berra didn’t show the same talent as Yogi Berra nor did Lance Niekro measure up to dad Joe Niekro.
The elder Gwynn was one of the best hitters of his generation. The current Gwynn posted a .660 OPS last year and has a lifetime .643 OPS in six seasons and 1,394 PA.
But while Gwynn Jr. seemingly uses a bat made out of balsa wood, one area where he is the equal, if not superior, player to his dad is as a defender. Last year, Gwynn saw time at all three outfield positions and in 677 innings he posted a 10.1 UZR. Extrapolated to 150 games, that’s a 23.7 mark. In his career, Gwynn has a 21.1 UZR/150, so it’s not like last year was a fluke.
But still, it’s hard to get past that .660 OPS, which translated into an 84 OPS+. It’s difficult to get an accurate judge of the total value of a player when so much of his contributions come on the defensive side of things. We all agree that this type of player has value, but how much? And this is why the WAR statistic is so appealing. Last year, Gwynn’s contributions totaled a 1.6 fWAR.
Meanwhile, Murphy had an .809 OPS and a 125 OPS+ last year. Defensively, Murphy is neither natural nor fluid, which makes the average fan conclude that he is a disaster in the field. But Murphy does have one defensive asset which even his detractors admit – he has very good range. The total defensive package, while nowhere near Gwynn’s value, ends up being better than most realize. Last year Murphy posted a 5.6 UZR/150 while led to a 3.2 fWAR.
Gwynn logged 136 games and 340 PA last year while Murphy had 109 and 423, respectively. Gwynn turned 29 in the offseason while Murphy turns 27 next April. Murphy carries some injury risk while Gwynn’s managers have never seen fit to let him get even 400 ABs in a season. Gwynn is arbitration eligible and made $675,000 last year. Murphy is still under team control and made $422,000 last year.
When you add everything up, there’s little reason to think that Gwynn for Murphy is a fair deal, especially given that Murphy was twice as valuable last year despite his shortened season. But when the Mets pulled the trigger with the Giants, they got an outfielder and a reliever. Is there a reliever on the Dodgers roster that would have evened this trade out?
Kenley Jansen had a 1.5 fWAR last year as a 23 year old. He also had a 16.1 K/9 and a FIP (1.74) and xFIP (2.04) significantly below his 2.85 ERA. A Gwynn-Jansen for Murphy deal seems like it would have been in the ballpark. There’s no doubt Dodgers fans would be hesitant to give up their hard-throwing reliever. But hopefully they realize that something needed to be added to the pot to even out the deal.
But it seems unlikely that any Mets-Dodgers deal right now would include either Gwynn or Jansen coming to Queens. If the Dodgers are still interested, and the story seems to indicate they are, they would have to offer either a SP or prospects if they want to get Murphy.
The only SP on the Dodger roster that makes sense is Chad Billingsley, who posted an 11-11 record with a 4.21 ERA in 188 IP last year. That translated into a 2.1 fWAR. But Billingsley might be a bit rich for the Mets’ blood right now. He’s signed to a three-year deal which calls for salaries escalating from $9 million in 2012 to $11 million the following year and $14 million in 2014. His deal also included a team option for $14 million in 2015, with a $3 million buyout.
The top three prospects for the Dodgers according to Baseball America are all pitchers. Their top hitter, outfielder Alfredo Silverio, had a nice season at Double-A as a 24 year old last year. Still, he seems like a tweener – a guy who can hit a little and run a little but not possessing one top tool.
The better prospect might end up being Joc Pederson, a two-sport star in high school that the Dodgers lured with an over-slot offer back in 2010. Pederson put up a .997 OPS in the short-season Pioneer League last year. He had 11 HR in 266 ABs and led the league with 64 RBIs. BA named him the league’s third best prospect. Yet some wonder if his power will improve. Last year Pederson hit 7 of his 11 HR at home and had a .596 slugging percentage at Lindquist Field, which while beautiful, has a power alley to right-center of just 350 feet.
But even if the power doesn’t develop, he shows a better eye at the plate than Silverio. Pederson had 36 BB and 54 Ks in 310 PA for Ogden last year while Silverio had 30 BB and 91 Ks in 572 PA for Chattanooga. Pederson *seems* to offer both a higher ceiling and higher floor than Silverio, although Silverio is likely to make the majors and Pederson has had just 60 PA in full-season ball.
I’m perhaps the biggest Murphy fan that is not a direct relative but the Mets have to explore all options and certainly trading Murphy is something they should examine. The Dodgers are a potential fit and they certainly seem interested. Billingsley is potentially a nice return, but probably too expensive. The Dodgers have high-profile pitchers in the minors but the Mets would probably prefer a bat at this point in time. A package with Joc Pederson and some filler seems like a decent return.
And to tie it all together, Pederson’s dad Stu Pederson got a cup of coffee with the Dodgers back in 1985. Since talent is not always equal between father and son – perhaps this means the younger Pederson is destined for a fine major league career.
The Dodgers have several good choices.
I would send Murphy and Parnell to LA for some combination of Eovaldi, Elbert, Lindblom, Federowicz and Sands. All young and showing potential. We have the depth in the bullpen to include Parnell and Murphy is a guy without a position.
We would still need to pick up a spare outfield, a middle infielder and a back up catcher, of course. Duda can play first if Davis is not able, so that extra outfielder might be critical.
Thanks for reading and commenting lareplus!
BA has Eovaldi as the Dodgers’ #3 prospect and he made his major league debut last year. Elbert has bounced back and forth between the majors and minors the last few years. Lindblom’s the team’s #8 prospect but may top out as a reliever. Federowicz, a catcher, is the team’s #10 prospect who is supposed to be a strong defensive backstop. Sands is an OF who saw significant playing time in LA last year.
Eovaldi is the one who’s most intriguing to me from your list. But I was working under the assumption that the Mets wanted minor league hitters more. Sands is interesting but I feel like Pederson has more upside and that’s what Alderson seems to want with guys that he’s acquired like Wheeler and Nimmo.
so i guess the mets want to trade every good player on the roster so we can be the buffalo bisons boycot citi field this team is pathetic
If the Mets get something good in return, why not trade him? He isn’t exactly the 2B of the future.
And how do you boycott a stadium anyway? Is it just not showing up to games but instead of moving on, whining about it at home? It’s not like they’re committing some heinous act anyway, just baseball. Nothing moral to boycott. I don’t get it.
The Mets need to upgrade their starting pitching and Billingsley would do that. Jansen looks like a future closer. The only way to afford Billingsley and pry away Jansen is to substitute Wright as the core in the deal instead of Murphy and then build upon the trade from there. The likelihood of trading Wright is minimal so lareplus and Brian’s way seem to have the most merit. My concern about Murphy is the 2B defense, especially at turning the double play.
I think we have to break down the issue of Murphy and the double play into two distinct parts. The first is ability to convert DPs at an acceptable rate and the second is to convert the DP without getting hurt.
In his brief time at 2B last year, Murphy had a decent DPR, the double play component of UZR. His DPR was -0.3 or a little below average. Compare that to Justin Turner (who no one complains about his defense), who had a -2.7 DPR last year.
The jury is still out on his ability to play 2B and stay healthy, but from what we saw last year, no one should be overly concerned about his ability to convert DPs at an acceptable rate.
Thanks for the defensive info, and if Murphy plays 2B adequately and produces at just his career #’s then the Mets could have the third best offensive 2B in the NL. The avg NL 2B had a 698 OPS while Murphy on his career is 784 and for 2011 810. To have an offensive player at such a traditionally weak offensive position would be such a huge plus for the Mets.