Many people are baffled by why the Mets are shopping/listening to offers for Jonathon Niese. Last night the reason should have become crystal clear. The Padres traded Mat Latos to the Reds and received four players who all have a chance to be contributors on a pennant-winning team. The popular perception is that Latos is a much better pitcher than Niese. But if we look at xFIP, here’s what they’ve produced the past two years:
| Latos | Niese | |
| 2010 | 3.21 | 3.80 |
| 2011 | 3.52 | 3.28 |
| Total | 3.36 | 3.55 |
To expand on the comparison, Latos, a righty, turned 24 in the offseason and has tossed 429.2 IP in the majors. Niese, a lefty, turned 25 in the offseason and has thrown 370.2 IP in the majors. In the past two years, Latos has 379.0 IP while Niese has 331.0 IP. Neither pitcher has reached 200 IP in a season and both have struggled with some injuries.
Latos has had oblique, shoulder and ankle injuries while Niese has suffered hamstring and rib injuries.
If you asked 100 people in baseball if they would rather have Latos or Niese, 100 of them would probably say Latos. But while Latos is clearly better the difference between them in age, quality and durability is not nearly as decisive. If Latos is worth four quality young players/prospects, suddenly it’s not so far-fetched to think that Niese is worth two plus some filler.
Earlier reports were that Toronto was interested and that the package would include top catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud and a back-end SP candidate – one who had already pitched in the majors. d’Arnaud was once one of the top prospects in the Phillies organization and he was sent to the Blue Jays in the Roy Halladay deal. After a strong start to his professional career, he suffered two uninspiring seasons in the minors before posting a .914 OPS in Double-A as a 22 year old.
New Hampshire is a slight hitter’s park but d’Arnaud was not just a product of his home park. Here are his home/road splits last year:
H – .269/.345/.492 with 10 HR in 220 PA
R – .339/.387/.571 with 11 HR in 243 PA
Catchers develop at odd intervals and no one would have been surprised if he put up these numbers in 2009. Even with his less than glowing 2009 and 2010 seasons, d’Arnaud was rated as the #36 prospect in the minors by Baseball America prior to the start of last season.
Of course, Toronto’s interest in Niese may vanish if they end up being the team to win the bidding rights to Yu Darvish. But even if the potential deal with the Blue Jays disintegrates, the Mets are still not crazy to insist for a lot in return for their young lefty. The Latos deal last night is just the latest indication of how teams view quality young pitchers.
The Padres claim four teams were intersested in Latos and they narrowed it down to two and then chose the Reds. Niese is not Latos BUT there are three teams out there willing to deal for a good young pitcher like Niese and maybe the Mets could fill some roster holes. GM Byrnes did a good job for a team not going anywhere in 2012. To a much lesser extent, with pitching being in such great demand, a market for a Pelfry might develop in late January if the demand is not satisfied.
Expectations for the Metsies in 2012 are not so high. What could we expect from them if they trade Niese or Pelfry? I’m all for building the future, but they still have to play the next season and the starting pitching isn’t too inspiring as it is.
I agree that the starting pitching needs an upgrade and if they trade Niese or Pelfry they would need to get a better pitcher back. Waiting for 2014 sounds nice but there are 324 games to play before then. In an ideal world, prospects perform so well at the AAA level that they push themselves onto the major league roster because they are better (or potentially better) than the current player. Prospects are the fruit of a well run organization, when you rely on them for your future, they are the signs of a desperate organization. I always believed that every spring the team should be positioned to be better than the last season and it is the GM’s (and owners) responsibility to achieve this. Without an upgrade to the starting pitching, clearing some “congested” positions through trades, and spending market value for some bench players , I don’t see the Mets achieving my expectations.