As we approach the start of the season, the Mets’ pitching staff has to accomplish a lot in order to win the trust of hopeful fans. If there is to be any glimmer of hope for a respectable season, the staff has to not only meet expectations, but most likely exceed them.
One thing that can foster some belief among fans is for Jonathon Niese to have his breakout year and perhaps become the ace of the Mets this year. Niese certainly has the potential to make his mark on this staff
With injury concerns, inconsistencies and several question marks surrounding the Met’s staff -a staff that is void of a true ace- Niese could be the best they got.
Let’s break it down this way:
- Johan Santana, despite all the physical tools he has, is coming back from a major shoulder surgery and he can’t be conceivably be trusted to pitch upwards of 200 innings this year. Oh, he will be exciting to watch and is still the most talented pitcher on the staff, but counting on him to be your ace comes with a huge amount of risk
- R.A. Dickey is one of the most stable and dependable arms to trust on the Mets staff. You know what you’re going to get every fifth day with Dickey. Although Dickey’s knuckleball is very deceptive and is constantly fooling hitters, I don’t think it’s fair to label Dickey an ace. Sure, he’s a middle of the rotation, reliable bulldog. But an ace he is not.
- As for Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee, there are just too many unknown factors facing both. Pelfrey has been terribly inconsistent for years (not to mention terrible this spring) while Gee is coming off a second half in 2011 in which he was exposed as probably a mediocre pitcher at best.
So, as you can see the pitcher with the most upside going into the 2012 season is Niese. Niese is pitching admirably this spring (3.98 ERA in 20.1 innings pitched) and is fresh off a solid outing on Wednesday in which he completed six innings while allowing two runs on five hits and one walk while also striking out six batters. In five spring training starts, Niese has 19 strikeouts in 20 innings.
Niese has always teased us with his talent, but he usually comes unhinged in the second half while also being a victim of the injury bug. But if Niese harnesses his talent and puts in a full season of work, then by the end of the year, Niese can legitimately lay claim to perhaps being the Mets’ ace.
The talent has always been there with him. Niese has always had a great strikeout to walk ratio but yet is one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball if you factor in his FIP (he had a 3.40 FIP last year with a 4.40 ERA).
In 65 career games (64 starts), Niese has compiled a 22 and 23 record to go along with a modest 4.39 ERA. Niese has always dazzled us with his buckling curveball. Now he is working with a full repertoire of pitches (not to mention a new nose) to keeps hitters off balance this year.
Judging from his peripherals, and as long as he stays healthy, Niese is primed for a breakout year. Considering the question marks surrounding the Mets’ rotation, a breakout season by Niese couldn’t come at a more ideal time.
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Niese in his career is slightly below average as a starting pitcher. Much of that can be attributed to his second half fade. If his endurance and stamina improve he should become a slightly better than average starter. The word “ace” and Niese should not be used in the same sentence because it would be putting unreasonable expectations on him. If Niese improves, gets his innings over 200, then he will be a solid pitcher the team can rely on in years to come. I would be satisfied with that.
I agree with Metsense. Niese is notheading for “ace,” leaving us in the realistic position, as the rest of Dan’s article indicates, of having no ace in the rotation. We really dont even have a solid #2 meaning the rotation is collection of 3-4-5 guys, which for the NL east is a tough place to be. Clearly Sandy is waiting for the young guns to make the big team to solve the woes on the bump. In the mean time, Santana and RA will shoulder a lot of the hope, and maybe Niese can stay strong enough through the season to survive low in the rotation. It sure would be nice to get a guy like Hamels to be a number 1. I just dont see a Seaver in waiting for the Mets in the minors.