Interpreting the results of our 2014 Mets poll

NY logoOn the day that the NCAA basketball tournament started, we asked readers to chime in on eight different questions about the 2014 Mets. The timing of the article may have been poor yet we still got enough responses to make looking at the results worthwhile. Before going any further, we should address some potential issues with these numbers. The first is that this was done anonymously, so there was nothing to keep someone from being a goofball and submitting crazy answers. The other issue is that there was nothing to keep someone from voting multiple times.

Having pointed out these things, I want to say that my personal belief is that neither of these happened to a large degree. All of these questions were ones that reasonable people can disagree and there was nothing in the voting patterns throughout that suggested something weird was going on. There were no massive swings in the percentages after a score of votes were recorded.

With that out of the way, let’s look at the questions and answers:

What should the Mets do about 1B?
54% – Go with Ike Davis/Josh Satin platoon
22% – Go with Lucas Duda/Satin platoon
14% – Acquire someone new
10% – Give the job outright to Satin

My take – The order went as expected, although there was more love for Davis and less for “someone new” than anticipated. Also, Duda polled worse than my expectations.

How worried are you about shortstop right now?
46% – Very worried
28% – Not very worried
26% – Starting to get more worried

My take – Actually pleased that “not very worried” polled as well as it did. My expectation was that it was going to be a coin flip between the other two choices and “not very worried” would be a distant third.

Assuming Jon Niese is healthy, who should be the fifth starter?
67% – Jenrry Mejia
23% – Daisuke Matsuzaka
8% – John Lannan
2% – Someone else

My take – Matsuzaka polled stronger and “someone else” polled weaker than expected. Perhaps if it explicitly said: Rafael Montero or Noah Syndergaard – it would have received more votes. My belief is that more than 2% of Mets fans thought one of the top prospects should be on the Opening Day roster.

What should the starting OF for the Mets be?
79% – Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares, Chris Young
13% – Granderson, Lagares, Eric Young Jr.
8% – Granderson, Young, Young Jr.

My take – Pretty much went down as expected

What’s your biggest concern about the 2014 Mets?
50% – Shortstop
22% – First base
19% – Management
9% – Bullpen
Outfield was also a choice and received votes, but not enough to crack 1%

My take – This one surprised me. My expectation was for the first three choices above to be very close to being evenly split, with the other two being distant runners-up. Perhaps shortstop being identified as the main problem wasn’t a surprise but certainly a greater than two-to-one margin over the second choice was a big shock to me.

How many wins do you think the 2014 Mets will produce?
39% – 75-80 wins
39% – 81-85 wins
12% – Fewer than 75 wins
8% – 86-90 wins
2% – 91 or more wins

My take – Pretty much went as expected although perhaps just a touch surprised that “Fewer than 75” didn’t poll slightly better.

How happy are you with Terry Collins as the manager?
32% – He’s no better or worse than anyone else
30% – Happy but expect results this year
18% – Very unhappy
12% – Not happy but willing to give him one last shot
8% – Very happy

My take – Very surprised that “Happy but expect results this year” polled as well as it did. My expectation was that both the first and third choices listed above would have polled better and “Happy but…” would have finished third. And if you’ll permit me to be snarky for a moment – whatever error is present in this poll should be contained within the percentage that voted “Very happy.”

Does Sandy Alderson deserve an extension?
74% – Yes
26% – No

My take – This went exactly as expected.

*****

Some things we can take away from this poll include:

  • The fans love Lagares, who came in with a 92% approval rating, as judged by how many thought he should be a starter.
  • Despite wildly uneven results, Mets fans still have faith in Davis and don’t trust Duda.
  • While not asked specifically, it’s hard not to infer that Ruben Tejada’s fan club does not have many members right now.
  • Even with all of the injuries, the fans are still optimistic about Mejia.
  • While the mainstream press has been universal in its praise for Collins – 30% selected an answer that indicated they were not happy with his performance. And it’s reasonable to believe that some portion of the 32% who indicated he was no better or worse than any other manager would replace him if given a chance. With another 30% indicating that they’re happy but expect results – it’s hard not to consider Collins being on the hot seat in 2014.

*****

Thank you to all who participated in this poll!

16 comments for “Interpreting the results of our 2014 Mets poll

  1. Mack Ade
    March 23, 2014 at 9:10 am

    Morning –

    I never liked polls. They simply are popularity contests and have nothing to do with reality.

    We all deserve an opinion, but it is management that we place our faith in. It’s their decisions that determine the result of the team.

    I would like Jenrry Mejia to be the SP5 because I would like the Mets to turn 100% towards the future with the young bloods, but I expect Dice-K to get the job because people who know much more about this team than I do have decided he’s a better 2014 solution. Is he? Do those decision makers know more than you, I, and the poll takers?

    Well, they can get inside the fence, right?

  2. March 23, 2014 at 9:24 am

    Management has earned the benefit of the doubt in some areas and not others.

    There has not been one personnel move in what is traditionally in the realm of the manager that gives me great confidence. I have zero confidence that the Mets will start the player at first base that I think belong there on Opening Day.

    In big trades, our general manager has done a fine job. Even in his biggest miss (Pagan-Ramirez/Torres) – it looked like a solid deal at the time it was made. If the GM tells me there’s not a good trade to be made, I believe him.

    Just because they’re inside the fence doesn’t make every manager Casey Stengel and every GM John Schuerholz.

    To me there’s value to see what the crowd thinks. And I also think it’s valuable for people to look at what they think should be done versus what is done and compare the results. If you’re happy with the manager but he picks Matsuzaka over Mejia, Davis over Duda and Eric Young over Lagares and those are three positions you are against — can you really be happy with the manager?

  3. TexasGusCC
    March 23, 2014 at 10:09 am

    Collins is always managing for today. His unlimited bullpen moves, his screwing of the youngsters, and his favoritisms all point to managing like each game is his last. I don’t get how you are “a manager”, i.e. navigator, and you are always playing your Baxters and your Turners over the future and the front office still let’s you sit in the dugout. Why is Flores not starting today over Quintanilla in the split squad game? This a-hole is totally unbearable.

    • TexasGusCC
      March 23, 2014 at 10:40 am

      A better example of the above was at the end of last year, Baxter started the last week and den Dekker never played. For this, Alderson gave Collins an extension but cut Baxter right after the season ended. Extension? 62% of the readers are willing to put up with that?

  4. Jerry Grote
    March 23, 2014 at 11:47 am

    I can’t stop thinking of Brad Pitt and Phillip Seymour Hoffman … after having been part of that environment, do any of us really think that Terry Collins has that much power over the roster makeup … or who really gets played as the season is drawing to a close?

    I just don’t. I think the roster makeup and who plays has Sandy’s fingerprints all over it. Terry Collins is Sandy’s alter ego, the part of Sandy we hate and blaming Terry (guilty) outside of tactical decisions doesn’t make sense.

    Side note: Adam Rubin inferred that Lagares makes the team as a bench player today. You know, I saw trouble in that steal of third base by EYJ in a preseason game yesterday right away.

    • Chris F
      March 23, 2014 at 12:17 pm

      Lagares making the team as bench player instead of starting center fielder pretty much sums up the personnel confusion this FO and field management team has. Only the Mets could figure out how to start a <1 five-season cumulative WAR player over someone who posted nearly a 4 WAR in his rookie year and who is being mentioned on MLB channel by a number of talking heads as one of the best defensive CFs or maybe the best CF in the game. We dont have a need for people like this on our team.

  5. Chris F
    March 24, 2014 at 10:36 am

    Looking over the starting line up against St Louis today, I cant help but wonder: is this what we will see on the 31st?

    Mets
    Eric Young Jr. lf
    Daniel Murphy, 2b
    David Wright, 3b
    Curtis Granderson, rf
    Chris Young, cf
    Lucas Duda, 1b
    Travis d’Arnaud, c
    Daisuke Matsuzaka, rhp
    Ruben Tejada, ss

    Flores just sent packing, and no Lagares. Dice K clearly #5. Duda at 1B. Im a bit disappointed if it is.

    • Jerry Grote
      March 24, 2014 at 11:34 am

      I’d take nothing from Duda at 1B. Davis has gotten the lion’s share and its still supposed to be a “competition” (yeah, right) so you have to at least give Lucas some ABs.

      Mejia has another pitching opportunity this Saturday; I don’t think Dice-K has anything completely sown up yet.

      Young, leading off and playing LF? That’s an issue.

      • Name
        March 24, 2014 at 11:54 am

        The Mets “depth” at pitching has been decimated to due mismanagement by not allowing Torres to start at all during the spring and shifting Lannan to the pen this early and therefore I have come to the conclusion that Dice-K has been given the final slot. I guess there’s a minute chance that the Mets would pay Dice-K the 100k retention bonus, but does anyone really think they would do that? The only way Mejia makes the starting 5 is if Niese can’t go by April 6th.

        • Name
          March 25, 2014 at 12:18 pm

          Wow… so the Mets are actually paying Dice-K 100k to keep him off the roster for now… Another frivolous use of money in my opinion; make your damn decision, one more spring start shouldn’t alter your decision, but they could be waiting on Niese’s health. At least there’s hope for Mejia.

          • Jerry Grote
            March 25, 2014 at 1:06 pm

            Aaron Harang was just signed. I don’t think it will take long before Chris Young gets signed.

          • Jerry Grote
            March 25, 2014 at 1:08 pm

            … (hit submit b4 I completed the thought)…
            Dice K at the least is trade fodder, especially if he throws a couple more like that one in preseason against the Cards in the regular season.

            $100,000 represents a bit more than 1/10th of a percent of the salary budget for a year. It’s a rounding error, nothing more.

            • Jerry Grote
              March 25, 2014 at 1:10 pm

              math error … ok … it’s around 1 percent. Still, not much more than a rounding error.

  6. Jerry Grote
    March 24, 2014 at 3:16 pm

    well. that story is over for now.

  7. Sean Flattery
    March 24, 2014 at 5:35 pm

    I think Tejada has a month to prove his productivity and Ike has even less time. Both will be in Opening Day lineup most likely.

    Lagares will prove the fans right per this poll.

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