The only thing that matters are the games that they play in the majors in real life. Some people are stars and would be stars if we had the ability to play major league seasons like computer situations, bursting through 100s or 1000s at a time. In 1,000 of these simulated seasons, Tom Seaver would be a star in 1,000 of them.
But not every major leaguer is Seaver.
Take old pal Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He’s played in the majors parts of five seasons and in 904 PA, he has a .229 AVG. How many people playing in the minors do you think could replicate what Nieuwenhis has done, if only they had gotten a break? Don’t you think Travis Taijeron could do what Nieuwenhuis has done, if only he got a shot? Nieuwenhuis is probably a better fielder, Taijeron might have a touch more power. Taijeron has a .573 SLG in Las Vegas and Nieuwenhuis put up .465 and .512 SLG marks when he played in that city.
The difference is that Nieuwenhuis got a shot and he had the great fortune of going on a hot streak right away. That’s the difference between the two of them. Taijeron hasn’t ever gotten a shot and it’s unlikely that he would have replicated what Nieuwenhuis did, even if he had. We could computer simulate 904 PA for Nieuwenhuis in the majors 1,000 times and he’d probably have near a .229 AVG in all of them. But how many do you think he would hit .302 in his first 133 PA, like he did in 2012? Certainly not 1,000 of them. I wouldn’t wager on the likelihood of it even reaching triple digits.
We don’t even have to think twice about how to spell Nieuwenhuis’ name because he got a shot and produced in the time that mattered. Bully for him! This is not to look down on him in any way, shape or form. It’s just to point out how thin the line between the majors and minors is. We think of Nieuwenhuis as a major leaguer and Taijeron as a Quad-A guy because in the only simulation that matters, that’s how it worked out.
Which brings us to Darin Gorski. He was an unheralded guy who pitched well in the upper minors and instead of giving him a shot in a season where they were going nowhere in 2013, the Mets recycled Aaron Harang and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Chances are if they gave a shot to Gorski, he would have not performed well and he would be right where he is now. Yet we would have said the same thing about Nieuwenhuis and look how that turned out. Meanwhile, Gorski’s still pitching in the U.S. – which is more than we can say for Messrs. Harang and Matsuzaka.
Gorski left the Mets as a minor league free agent at the end of the 2015 season and wound up in Independent Ball. But with the Mets relying heavily on Las Vegas pitchers here in the last month, the Mets rescued him from the Atlantic League and he’s back with Taijeron on the 51s. In his second outing on 6/30, he allowed 1 ER in 7 IP.
He still has no future with the Mets. But I’m sure from Gorski’s point of view, Las Vegas is paradise compared to Somerset. Here’s hoping he gets a chance to pitch in the majors at least once before it’s all said and done for him.
Triple-A Las Vegas – SS Gavin Cecchini started hitting at the end of April after getting off to a miserable start. The problem was it was mostly singles. But in his last 19 games, he has 11 XBH in 69 ABs and a 1.092 OPS… Those hoping for a quick return by OF Michael Conforto may be disappointed. He’s off to a slow start, with a .723 OPS after 32 PA and only one XBH… The news is not much better for C Kevin Plawecki, who has a .798 OPS after an identical 32 PA. However, it’s unlikely Plawecki returns before rosters expand, no matter how well he hits.
Double-A Binghamton – 1B Dominic Smith missed a chance to duplicate Conforto’s feat from a year ago by skipping Las Vegas and going straight to the majors because he was hitting poorly when an opening presented itself. But Smith has clubbed 6 HR in his last 50 PA and has a 1.349 OPS in that span… In 12 games since being promoted from Hi-A, SS Amed Rosario has a .405/.468/.548 line… 1B/DH Matt Oberse has had the misfortune of being drafted the same year and playing the same position on the same minor league teams as Smith. But he just keeps rolling along, mostly unnoticed. He’s off to a great start in July, going 7-13 with 4 XBH this month… After giving up runs in three of his first five relief appearances, LHP David Roseboom has a 1.90 ERA and a 0.972 WHIP in his last 23 games.
Hi-A St. Lucie – OF Wuilmer Becerra has a seven-game hitting streak with a .452/.485/.677 line. But he hasn’t played in the field since the last day of May… OF John Mora has hit safely in 10 of his last 11 games. He has a .444 OBP in this stretch and has scored 10 Runs… UTIL Kevin Taylor continues his comeback story. After three years in Independent Ball, Taylor has an .860 OPS after 243 PA. In his last 10 games, he’s batting .429 with 5 XBH… As expected, LHP P.J. Conlon was promoted from Lo-A after starting in the All-Star game. In two starts in the FSL, Conlon has a 2.45 ERA and a 1.023 WHIP.
Lo-A Columbia – 3B David Thompson returned from the DL and picked up right where he left off. In five games, he’s 6-19 with 3 XBH and 9 RBIs… When MLB introduced the current draft signing bonus rules, the Mets went cheap early to spend on guys later. In 2013, they gave top pick Smith a bonus $240,300 less than slot level and gave 11th-rounder RHP Tyler Bashlor a $450,000 overslot deal. Injuries have curtailed Bashlor through most of his time, but he’s finally back on the mound as a reliever, where he has a 1.47 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP with 44 Ks in 36.2 IP for the Fireflies… C Patrick Mazeika and OF Kevin Kaczmarski both had standout years in the APPY last year after being mid-round picks in the 2015 Draft. Both found the sledding a little tougher in full-season ball, though both are heating up here lately. Mazeika has a .926 OPS in his last 12 games, 10 of which he’s been behind the plate. Kaczmarski has hit safely in 18 of his last 24 games and has a .365 OBP in that span.
Short-season – C Brandon Brosher has a six-game hitting streak, in which he’s batting .375 with two homers. He’s caught eight of the 10 games he’s played for the Cyclones… SS Colby Woodmansee, the team’s 5th-round pick in 2016, has seven multi-hit games in his first 12 appearances for Brooklyn… LHP Thomas Szapucki, a fifth-rounder in 2015, has fanned 19 batters in 10.2 IP for Kingsport… After struggling with wildness in his 2016 debut, where he had 4 BB in 4.1 IP, LHP Max Wotell threw six shutout innings with no walks on 7/3. He did hit two batters, though… 3B Eudor Garcia returned from his suspension to go 1-for-3 for the GCL Mets on Sunday… Despite going 0-6 on Sunday, OF Wagner Lagrange is batting .414 in the GULF.
I fundamentally disagree with the thesis here, the give-the-kids-a-chance mentality. Den Dekker will be just as good . . . Gorski deserves a shot . . . don’t get Loney, look at the slug in AAA . . . and so on.
Ultimately, you have to trust in your coaches, your experts, who see these players on a regular basis for years and years. The hope is that they make the right determination.
Some kids deserve a shot. Some don’t. And in between all that, circumstances and dumb luck play a role in who gets that opportunity and who doesn’t.
Are they sometimes wrong? Seems that way. Hard to grasp — from here — why Rivera never gets a shot. OTOH, Ty Kelly was hitting .397 and obviously can’t play.
Anyway, this is just an area where we have a deep, fundamental disagreement. And I think Gorski sucks. But in a small sample size, could have experience a bit of success? Sure, maybe. But that’s no way to run a team that aspires to win.
I’m glad someone thought that this was worth commenting on – thanks!
As my dad used to say, there’s more than one way to skin a cat. The idea that a veteran is always preferable to a rookie is one I cannot get behind. The idea that the late August 2013 Mets were better off with a veteran is one that I will borrow other people’s disgust to add to my own and argue was absolutely the wrong one. And Gorski may never pitch in the majors because of that and I think that stinks.
And I extremely dislike the conclusion that after 14 games (5 starts) over five weeks that Ty Kelly obviously can’t play. I just wrote a piece about Curtis Granderson, who in a three week period of playing every day hit .134 earlier this year. Your conclusion may be 100% correct. But you can’t make that based on the sample size you’ve seen and be anything besides a talk radio loud mouth.
Kelly didn’t do anything to deserve additional opportunities on this particular team. I’m not leading the Kelly bandwagon in any way, shape or form. If asked about him before his initial promotion in May, I would have said his .457 BABIP was completely insane and not repeatable. But I’m not closing the book that he may repeat his Triple-A success this year in a more normal environment for some other team in another org in 2017 and merit a shot.