A look at how select Mets pitchers are doing so far in the minors

One of the themes in recent years in regards to the Mets’ farm system was that it was short on pitching prospects, both in terms of high-end quality and overall depth. Coming into 2024, my opinion was that the first point was debatable and the second point was downright false. Let’s take a look at early results, with a focus on players who have a shot at getting some starts in the majors. Sorry, Mr. Gervase, you’re still one of my favorites.

Name	G	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP
Felipe De La Cruz	4	4	17.2	3.06	1.30	3.22
Dom Hamel	4	4	18.1	4.42	1.36	4.85
Nolan McLean	4	4	14	3.86	1.00	3.70
Kade Morris	4	4	18.1	2.45	1.25	4.12
Christian Scott	5	5	25.1	3.20	0.71	5.16
Brandon Sproat	4	3	14.2	1.23	1.23	3.97
Tyler Stuart	3	3	15.2	3.45	1.40	2.43
Joander Suarez	4	4	21.1	3.38	1.1323,	4.08
Blade Tidwell	4	2	21.1	1.69	0.84	1.92
Jonah Tong	4	2	18.2	0.00	0.64	0.73
Austin Troesser	4	1	13.2	2.63	1.02	2.67
Mike Vasil	5	5	15.2	10.91	2.43	8.81
Jordany Ventura	4	0	10.1	3.48	1.16	3.08

Now for a few words on each of them. In parentheses will be their seasonal age, level and where they are age-wise to level, with a “+” being young for the level and a “-“ being old compared to my target. For Triple-A, the age is 23, Double-A, the age is 22, Hi-A, the age is 21 and Lo-A the age is 20.

De La Cruz (23, Hi-A, -2) – Got a late-season promotion to Brooklyn last year and it would be nice if he got a mid-season promotion this year. De La Cruz has given up 6 ER and five of them came in one game, on the road versus the Blue Claws. Brooklyn is a pitcher’s park and in two home games, he has 9 IP and 1 ER.

Hamel (25, Triple-A, -2) – His first start of the year saw 5 ER and 7 BB in 2.2 IP. In three games since then, Hamel has a 2.30 ERA with 5 BB and 24 Ks in 15.2 IP. Hamel’s overall numbers last year don’t jump out but he was terrific in the second half of the season.

McLean (22, Hi-A, -1) – A two-way player in college, the Mets planned to let McLean do both in the minors but the thought was that his future would be on the mound. My thought was that he was going to be a reliever but the Mets have begun his first full season as a starter and the early results are promising. And the bat has been a pleasant surprise, too, as he has a .946 OPS with 2 HR in 32 PA.

Morris (22, Lo-A, -2) – He was very good in his first three starts and then got knocked around in his last outing, where he allowed a triple and two homers. Overall, it’s been a solid start, although LHB have given him trouble. Righties have a .564 OPS against Morris, while lefties have an .878 mark.

Scott (25, Triple-A, -2) – He has 36 Ks and a 12.79 K/9, which are fabulous numbers. Scott has also allowed 7 HR and a 2.49 HR/9, which is every bit as bad as the strikeouts are good. Among 36 qualified pitchers on the FanGraphs leaderboard in the International League, Scott’s 3.20 ERA is the ninth-best. And his 5.16 FIP is tied for 24th.

Sproat (23, Hi-A, -2) – While home runs are killing Scott, walks are the reason why Sproat’s FIP is 2.74 runs above his ERA. He’s allowed 9 BB in 14.2 IP, which is a 5.52 BB/9. But a 10.43 K/9 and a 69.7 GB% are two strong building blocks for any pitcher.

Stuart (24, Double-A, -2) – While Scott and Sproat have out-pitched their peripherals, we see the opposite here early with Stuart. And he’s increased his IP and lowered his ER in his starts. He’s gone from 4.2 to 5.0 to 6.0 in IP, while going from 3 to 2 to 1 in ER.

Suarez (24, Double-A, -2) – Like Morris, one bad outing is skewing Suarez’ numbers here early. He allowed 5 ER in 5.2 IP against Reading. In his other three starts, its’s 15.2 IP and 3 ER. Suarez’ strikeout numbers are down, primarily due to 2 Ks in 6 IP in his last start. Otherwise, it’s 15 Ks in 15.1 IP.

Tidwell (23, Double-A, -1) – One of the main knocks on Tidwell has been his walks allowed but he’s improved in that area each step of the way. After a 5.07 BB/9 in Hi-A last year, he cut that to 4.46 after his promotion to Binghamton. So far this year, he has a 3.38 BB/9. In his last outing, Tidwell went 6.2 IP, threw 61 of his 88 pitches for strikes and had 9 Ks.

Tong (21, Hi-A, 0) – The stats in the above chart for Tong were posted in Lo-A but he just got a promotion to Hi-A, bringing him to the age-appropriate level. And Tong got this early bump due to a dominating pitching performance, one where he allowed one unearned run in 18.2 IP, while fanning 36 batters en route to a 7.2 K/BB ratio.

Troesser (22, Lo-A, -2) – It may be a stretch to include Troesser as a potential MLB starter. He had more relief appearances in college than starts, a trend he’s continued here in the pros. But all of his numbers are good and seem to be crying out for a bigger role.

Vasil (24, Triple-A, -1) – An early frontrunner for most disappointing season by a Mets’ farmhand, Vasil has not been good in any of his five starts to begin the season. He went to the team’s pitching lab following the 2023 season and it’s possible that the tweaks they made will take some time to manifest in good results.

Ventura (23, Hi-A, -2) – In 23 of his 25 games last year, Ventura was a starter. Perhaps the decision is set in stone that he’s now a reliever. But his results have been very good and he’s made great strides in cutting his walk rate, while also recapturing his strikeouts.

*****

It was heartbreaking to see Calvin Ziegler go down with TJ surgery after just two starts. And that came on the heels of missing almost the entire 2023 season, too. It’s hard to come back from one missed season, much less two. Mets fans will be pulling for Ziegler, as well as Matt Allan, who hasn’t pitched since 2019.

There hasn’t been much news on Allan. Anthony DiComo had a piece on him back on March 22nd. DiComo said then that Allan had begun playing catch and hoped to be back on a mound in May. Allan’s latest procedure was UCL revision surgery in February of 2023. The DiComo piece said that the average return time for this surgery was 18-20 months, compared to a 15-18-month timetable for TJ surgery.

*****

Generally speaking, you want your pitchers making their MLB debut by their age-24 season. While there are exceptions to every rule, if you expect a pitcher to make at least 50 starts in the majors, you have less than a 5% chance of that happening with a guy that makes his MLB debut at age 25 or later. That info was derived from a sample of 183 pitchers between the 2008-2012 seasons, giving them plenty of time to amass 50 starts in the majors.

If you missed that the first time, you can read these two pieces. The first link has the 5% info and the other is worth reviewing, too.

A last look at age-based minor league comps for Christian Scott

A look at starting pitchers who make their MLB debut at age 25 or above