Viewed like this, no one has had a more encouraging or productive start than the 8-1 Mets. The Mets’ chances of making the playoffs, according to us, have gone up 24 percentage points already. It’s not just that Noah Syndergaard looks good and healthy. It’s not just that Jacob deGrom looks good and healthy. The bullpen has been outstanding, Michael Conforto is back and hitting the crap out of the ball way ahead of schedule, and the club recently wrapped up a three-game road sweep of the Nationals. The Mets are 3.5 games ahead of the Nationals, today. They used to be projected 8.2 games worse. The gap has narrowed considerably. It’s never too soon to sweep your main rival.
Source: Jeff Sulivan, FanGraphs