Let’s go back and re-visit the preseason projections made here at the site. Today we’ll look at the starting pitchers. A forecast was made for all five guys who began the year in the rotation. Let’s compare the Mets360 forecast to what the player actually did. And if a reader put in a particularly good prediction in the comments section, they’ll get a shout out now.

Jacob deGrom
Forecast – 198 IP, 2.54 ERA, 240 Ks, 55 BB, 16 HR
Actual – 204 IP, 2.43 ERA, 255 Ks, 44 BB, 19 HR

This was a pretty strong forecast. And if he hadn’t made that last start of the year he would have had 197 IP and a 2.51 ERA with 248 Ks and 43 BB. It’s unlikely we’ll see a better forecast than that the rest of the year. A tip of the hat to Eric Bloom, who predicted a 2.35 ERA with 267 Ks and 45 BB.

Noah Syndergaard
Forecast – 190 IP, 2.80 ERA, 53 BB, 201 Ks, 12 HR
Actual – 197.2 IP, 4.28 ERA, 50 BB, 202 Ks, 24 HR

Well, the gopher ball sure did cause havoc with this prediction! IP, BB and K’s were all very strong but intel about the new ball did not filter down to me before making this forecast. For what it’s worth, Syndergaard allowed 5 HR when Tomas Nido caught (78 innings) and 19 HR when anyone else (119.2 innings) was behind the dish. None of the readers saw the ERA or HR allowed, either.

Zack Wheeler
Forecast – 205 IP, 2.70 ERA, 210 Ks, 57 BB, 15 HR
Actual – 195.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 195 Ks, 59 BB, 22 HR

It was a streaky season for Wheeler, who ended the year on an up note, with a 1.80 ERA in his final 40 IP over six starts. But there were too many bad starts for him to meet my high expectations. Seven starts with two homers allowed certainly didn’t help matters. Chris F. predicted an ERA north of 3.50 but also said, “he would be surprisingly lucky to get 30 (starts).” Wheeler made 31 starts.

Steven Matz
Forecast – 110 IP, 3.40 ERA, 108 Ks, 40 BB, 12 HR
Actual – 160.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 153 Ks, 52 BB, 27 HR

My forecast was for Matz to pitch pretty good but to suffer some type of injury. He was healthy for the second consecutive season but didn’t pitch nearly as well as expected. After the All-Star break, Matz had a 3.52 ERA and gave up 9 HR in 79.1 IP. If he had pitched like that the entire year, this forecast would have looked a lot better. David Klein predicted an ERA around 4.00 for the best from the comments section.

Jason Vargas
Forecast – 141 IP, 4.40 ERA, 125 Ks, 47 BB, 23 HR
Actual – 149.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 124 Ks, 63 BB, 21 HR

Well, this forecast was pretty strong, too. And Vargas was even better when he was on the Mets – it took the Philadelphia stench to get him in line with my preseason forecast. It would be kind of funny if Vargas ended up being the low-cost 2020 replacement for Wheeler. Name predicted a 4.43 ERA and Gus saw a deadline deal.

One comment on “Mets 2019 projection review: Starting pitchers

  • Edwin e Pena

    Mets starters were all good, Degrom ‘A’, others ‘B’.
    Do the same forecast vs projection with the BP and good luck !! The BP killed the Mets in 2019 with like 27 blown saves.
    Half of those in the win column and the Braves would have heavy competition for the division, forget wild card. Now what ?
    Wheeler maybe on the outs, Lugo too valuable to make a starter. Mets can’t trade Thor on the low, nor should they. Maybe they can turn Gsellman into the 5th starter behind Degrom, Thor, Stroman and Matz. Spend on the BP and please don’t let these guys see another inning at the ML level > Bashlor, Gagnon, Lockett, Maaza, Sewald, Rahme, Peterson, etc.
    Try to trade Familia if possible, maybe Diaz has value too based on his youth and still lite contract. Sign Will Smith of SF, maybe Greg Holland, add to Lugo, Wilson and Avilan and let’s go into spring w/ a better BP.

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