Let’s go back and re-visit the preseason projections made here at the site. Today we’ll look at the starting pitchers. A forecast was made for all five guys who began the year in the rotation. Let’s compare the Mets360 forecast to what the player actually did. And if a reader put in a particularly good prediction in the comments section, they’ll get a shout out now.
Forecast – 198 IP, 2.54 ERA, 240 Ks, 55 BB, 16 HR
Actual – 204 IP, 2.43 ERA, 255 Ks, 44 BB, 19 HR
This was a pretty strong forecast. And if he hadn’t made that last start of the year he would have had 197 IP and a 2.51 ERA with 248 Ks and 43 BB. It’s unlikely we’ll see a better forecast than that the rest of the year. A tip of the hat to Eric Bloom, who predicted a 2.35 ERA with 267 Ks and 45 BB.
Forecast – 190 IP, 2.80 ERA, 53 BB, 201 Ks, 12 HR
Actual – 197.2 IP, 4.28 ERA, 50 BB, 202 Ks, 24 HR
Well, the gopher ball sure did cause havoc with this prediction! IP, BB and K’s were all very strong but intel about the new ball did not filter down to me before making this forecast. For what it’s worth, Syndergaard allowed 5 HR when Tomas Nido caught (78 innings) and 19 HR when anyone else (119.2 innings) was behind the dish. None of the readers saw the ERA or HR allowed, either.
Forecast – 205 IP, 2.70 ERA, 210 Ks, 57 BB, 15 HR
Actual – 195.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 195 Ks, 59 BB, 22 HR
It was a streaky season for Wheeler, who ended the year on an up note, with a 1.80 ERA in his final 40 IP over six starts. But there were too many bad starts for him to meet my high expectations. Seven starts with two homers allowed certainly didn’t help matters. Chris F. predicted an ERA north of 3.50 but also said, “he would be surprisingly lucky to get 30 (starts).” Wheeler made 31 starts.
Forecast – 110 IP, 3.40 ERA, 108 Ks, 40 BB, 12 HR
Actual – 160.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 153 Ks, 52 BB, 27 HR
My forecast was for Matz to pitch pretty good but to suffer some type of injury. He was healthy for the second consecutive season but didn’t pitch nearly as well as expected. After the All-Star break, Matz had a 3.52 ERA and gave up 9 HR in 79.1 IP. If he had pitched like that the entire year, this forecast would have looked a lot better. David Klein predicted an ERA around 4.00 for the best from the comments section.
Forecast – 141 IP, 4.40 ERA, 125 Ks, 47 BB, 23 HR
Actual – 149.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 124 Ks, 63 BB, 21 HR
Well, this forecast was pretty strong, too. And Vargas was even better when he was on the Mets – it took the Philadelphia stench to get him in line with my preseason forecast. It would be kind of funny if Vargas ended up being the low-cost 2020 replacement for Wheeler. Name predicted a 4.43 ERA and Gus saw a deadline deal.