Mets opt for depth over stars with Porcello and Wacha moves

The Mets made a bunch of moves in the offseason prior to 2019 that gave them some offensive depth. That, along with the positional versatility of several players, allowed them to weather injuries better than they had in recent memory. This current offseason, while it lacks the big moves of last year, is doing the same thing for the pitching side of things.

The Mets’ starters were very healthy last year, with their four main guys combining for 125 starts and the two guys used as the fifth starter adding 29 more. Whether you attribute that to luck or something positive that Mickey Callaway brought to the team, chances are the five starters won’t combine for 154 starts in 2020. Despite losing Zack Wheeler to free agency, the Mets have six pitchers right now who you won’t feel bad if they start a game, three more Triple-A depth starter types and a couple of minor leaguers who might grow into the role for later on in the season. And if worse comes to worst, they also have Seth Lugo to use from the bullpen.

You figure the four remaining guys who finished the year in the rotation in 2019 will be the first four for 2020. Then new addition Rick Porcello figures to be the team’s fifth starter. That pushes another offseason add, Michael Wacha, to the bullpen, where hopefully he will be used in multi-inning appearances to keep him stretched out in case he needs to make a spot start or fill in for a guy on the IL.

Behind Wacha is Walker Lockett, who made four starts last year, Corey Oswalt, who has 12 MLB starts under his belt, and recently-acquired Stephen Gonsalves, a LHP from the Twins who went 9-3 in Triple-A in 2018 before having his 2019 season impacted by a forearm injury. Gonsalves throws four pitches, with his three non-fastball offerings all being average or better. He’ll need good command to survive in MLB but for a guy who figures to slot in somewhere between seven and nine on the rotational depth chart, that’s not bad at all.

Gonsalves and Oswalt both have an option left. Lockett does not, which may give him a leg up to make the team as a reliever out of Spring Training.

Many people expected the Mets to make a big bullpen acquisition for next season. The combination of being burned by those types of acquisitions last year, along with limited available dollars, seemingly has kept that from happening. But even without that big-name guy, the team has no problem filling out a bullpen for Opening Day. And they can do it without depending on known arsonists like Tyler Bashlor or Jacob Rhame.

While my sincere hope is that the Mets use the extra roster spot available in 2020 for a position player, my fear is that it will lead to an eight-man bullpen. But even with the extra relief spot, the Mets can fill their pen right now. There are the two big acquisitions last offseason, Wacha, Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Justin Wilson, Brad Brach and Lockett. Or, if you still hold on to the fantasy that the key to a good bullpen is multiple lefty relievers, you can try to sneak Lockett through waivers and put Daniel Zamora into the last spot.

It’s an improvement from last year, when the club carried seven relievers on the Opening Day roster and still needed to include Tim Peterson and his 6.18 ERA as a rookie in the group.

The pen will still rise or fall on how last year’s additions fare. It’s certainly not an ideal spot to be in but they almost have to be better than they were in 2019. This time last year we were imagining them as lock down relievers for the eighth and ninth innings. Even if they improved to just average relievers who you wouldn’t be afraid to put in the seventh inning, that would be helpful. The hope is the bullpen can improve to middle of the pack, rather than last year’s routine of Lugo and Wilson and avert your eyes.

The Nationals won the World Series last year despite having the worst bullpen in the league, as they finished 15th in both ERA (5.68) and WHIP (1.476) among NL clubs. It’s not an advisable strategy to mimic but it’s a data point that a bad bullpen alone doesn’t have to sink your season.

Another factor to consider is that while the Mets had some good fortune in the health of their starters last year, they had ridiculously bad luck in the performance of their bullpen. There was the complete meltdown of the big imports and the injuries that sidelined multiple guys for six weeks or more at a time, including the season-long loss of 2018 bright spot, Drew Smith. But perhaps the most incredible thing is how no one who was added to the team during the year and who pitched more than six innings gave a big jolt to the squad.

The Nationals add Daniel Hudson and he gives them a 1.44 ERA and picks up six saves in 25 IP. The Braves promote Jacob Webb and he provides 32.1 IP with a 1.39 ERA and a 1.113 WHIP. After one disastrous outing in his first promotion (4 IP, 4 ER) the Phillies recall Ranger Suarez two weeks later and he gives them 44.2 IP and a 2.62 ERA the rest of the year. The Mets don’t have one guy who comes in and gives them anything remotely like that. The six relievers they add after Opening Day to give them at least 15 IP combine for a 5.69 ERA in 134.1 IP. The best of the lot is Wilmer Font, who gives them a 3.48 ERA in 20.2 IP as a reliever. And they cut him loose to keep the Bashlors and Rhames of the world.

Does the Mets bullpen need an overhaul or does it need some health and good fortune?

Yes, it would have been nice to add Madison Bumgarner or Josh Hader in the offseason. And who knows, maybe there’s still a move to be made for the pitching staff before Spring Training starts. But even if this is all there is – the Mets still did a nice job adding depth with the acquisitions of Brach, Gonsalves, Porcello and Wacha. And that’s depth to help both the starters and relievers. Gonsalves may end up being the second lefty in the pen. May one or more of those guys work out as well in the depth department as J.D. Davis did on the offensive side last year.