Sources indicate that the Mets have signed Rick Porcello to a 1/$10 million deal. While the Mets were linked to Porcello earlier in the offseason, it seemed that yesterday’s signing of Michael Wacha closed this particular door. Now we’re left wondering if this means that Wacha will be in the bullpen or if it means that a Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz trade is on the table.
Unlike Wacha, Porcello has been extremely durable, making 31 or more starts in seven of the past nine seasons. The two years he didn’t make that many starts, he had 29 and 28. And the season with 29 starts, Porcello also had three relief appearances.
Porcello won the 2016 CY Award, on the strength of a 22-4 season. And while he won 17 games in 2018, his quality has gone down considerably since 2016. That year he posted a 3.15 ERA but in the three seasons since, Porcello has recorded a 4.79 ERA. Last season he had a 5.52 ERA, and an 87 ERA+
His durability makes him a better choice than Wacha. But a healthy Wacha is likely just as good, if not better, than Porcello. But none of us know if a healthy Wacha is a real creature at this point in time.
Perhaps the most interesting thing about this deal are the payroll implications. Cot’s had the Mets with an estimated OD payroll of $176.5 million and an estimated CBT payroll of $196.6 million before the Wacha and Porcello signings. Those add $13 million to the OD payroll and some undetermined amount to the CBT payroll, as we don’t know the incentive clauses in Wacha’s deal.
The assumption was that Wacha’s incentives were based on starts. But what if they’re based on days on the 26-man roster, instead? That could mean that the Mets are adding $20 million to the CBT payroll. If asked to guess, my reply would be no, that’s not what the incentives are. But it’s at least a possibility. But even if Wacha doesn’t reach any incentive, that would put the Mets estimated CBT payroll at $209.6 million.
The MLB luxury tax threshold for 2020 is $208 million. And while the penalty for going over by $2 million would be negligible, it’s still shocking that the Mets are at this level while the Wilpons are in charge.
It could mean that the sale to Steve Cohen will be completed before the tax is due. Or it could mean that a salary dump trade is just around the corner.
Now the Wacha deal make more sense. They’re paying him to be a reliever and if he ends up spending more time as a starter he’ll get paid for that too.
I am ready to give Cohen # 25 and put him up on the wall already.
They aren’t done yet.
I think they have 2 major moves left:
1. trading Dom and attaching him to Lowrie either to Texas for Jose LeClerc+ or to Oakland
2. Using savings from Lowrie and signing Betances (who I think wants to play under Beltran and stay in NY).
I just read that BVW proclaimed the Mets have the deepest rotation in baseball. One year later, BVW still can’t shut up and just go about his business. He needs to be smug and act like a spoiled teenager that lacks professionalism.
There is still plenty of time to make a splash but the reality is that we were never going to vie for the top level FA, instead picking up bargains to complete the roster. We do have a pretty good young core of players and a strong starting staff and won 86 games with numerous shortcomings that we have all beaten to death. Wish we knew more about Cespedes’ return which if it happens gives a huge boost even at 34 years old age. He would be the bat that teams fear most and if he hit behind Alonso, teams will have to throw Pete strikes and we saw where many of those landed. So the key again is reshaping the pen and hoping that Hefner is a better coach than he was a player. Porcello and Wacha are great #5 candidates to come in and effectively eat innings much like Big Sexy did. And they could be a surprise and move up the rotation scale as Colon did by being healthy and working deep into games. Another question to be answered is which of the two would be more effective in the pen. Hoping Lowrie and Smith leave the roster and a solid BP arm comes back in return. Then we are back to being all in on Hefner working out the kinks with Diaz and Familia. Lots to be excited about.
Nimmo CF
McNeill/Lowrie/Davis 3b/LF
Conforto RF
Alonzo 1b
Cano/Lowrie/McNeill 2b
Davis/McNeill3b/lf
Rosario SS
Ramos C
Pitcher
Marisnick, Dom…. Lowrie, Davis
I like the flexibility and depth and also the quality. I don’t Believe Dom will be here. I’d like them to keep Lowrie for now. Either He or Cano are insurance for one another.
Ces?….. that’s a mid season booster, if anything… no other assumptions
One of my bigger concerns is whether Davis can Glove either LF or 3B with Survivable Plus Skills—if He can, he’s useful on a win now team as a low cost, productive piece.
That team can win with Pitching.
The Nats are Worse today, versus Last Friday. The Phils are thin on Arms and Bench…nice line up.
Met’s are in a good spot, for mid december
I’d get rid of Lowrie for a bag of cherries, even aged ones. There’s an article in The Athletic covering his year, and I read it looking for something, but I never found it. I wanted to hear that he wished he could have been healthy to help the team: Lip service. Bullshit. I didn’t see it. Nothing in that article made me feel like he wished he could have offered more. I don’t know if anything/anyone pissed him off early on and he sat out, but it’s interesting how the Mets still don’t know what was wrong with him, but they’ll pay him while they beat on Cespedes who was hurt and tried to play hurt. Yet, Lowrie’s hamstring took all year to heal. No surgeries, no information, all year. Lowrie is as good as gone. Another CAA client taken care of by Jeff’s buddy. Thank God these idiots are leaving, hopefully before I do.
Gus……You don’t like a guy who’s injured, based on an article that someone wrote about him? That’s Harsh and unfair and unrealistic….”Fair Weathered”, sadly
Has nothing to do with that Eraff. Has to do with his mindset and his tone that raised my antennae. Three days ago BVW, his tightest BFF in the organization, was asked if he knew what kept him out all year and BVW’s answer was “I don’t know”. Now, there have been people to call for the voiding of Cespedes contract – on these comments as well – because he was hurt. And when he broke his ankle coming off his horse at his ranch, then the calls got real loud. But, Cespedes has played hurt. Even came back for the Yankees series because “it couldn’t get any worse”. Cespedes has carried this team in the past. What has Lowrie done? We don’t even know if he was hurt. How many hamstrings take four months to heal? That’s all I’m saying. Basically, calling out Lowrie.
If he did it because Jeff wanted him to play hurt and tried his famous ‘get on the field’ crap and Lowrie told him to read my finger, then good for him. But, it’s hard to gauge this “injury” vacation.
What I love is Cespedes pay cut. He got half of his 2019 salary and will have a significantly reduced salary for 2020. What that number is. We will find out. I am glad they played hard ball with him. And for the reduced salary, we can thank Mr Ed.
So, there is our 10 million. Enough to pick up a reliever. But, they probably knew this was going to happen and that is where the Porcello money came from.