News has it that the Mets are finalizing a contract with Michael Wacha that will pay him $3 million, with the chance to earn up to $7 million more with incentives. Given the constraints of the Mets’ likely budget, it’s hard to imagine them getting a better deal than they did here. Over the past five years, the oft-injured Wacha has delivered an average of 139 innings per season. Jason Vargas and Marcus Stroman – who combined for 29 starts last year for the Mets – recorded 154 innings.
In addition to the injuries, Wacha was done in by the gopher ball last year. He surrendered 26 HR in 126.2 IP, which is hard to fully comprehend. But Wacha seemed to be improving at the end of the year. In his last nine games he put up a 2.89 ERA with a normal .308 BABIP. A shoulder injury kept Wacha from appearing in either the NLDS or NLCS last year but he threw simulated games during the NLCS and possibly would have been on the roster if the Cardinals advanced to the World Series.
Is he healthy? You’d like to think the Mets did their due diligence on his medicals. But even if he goes to Spring Training healthy, there’s no guarantee that he’ll avoid the IL all season. Injuries are part of the bargain with Wacha at this point in time. Which is why he was available for such a relatively low guaranteed salary.
In 867.2 lifetime innings in the majors, Wacha has a 3.96 FIP and a 4.00 xFIP. Compare that to Rick Porcello, who the Mets were also rumored to be interested in this season. Porcello has lifetime marks of 4.09 and 4.03, respectively. Porcello has a much better track record of health. He’s also likely to get a deal with four times the guaranteed money, possibly getting multiple years, too.
Ideally the Mets would have re-signed Zack Wheeler and this wouldn’t be an issue. But the reality is that until Steve Cohen gets approved, the Mets are operating with less financial muscle than we’d all like. We don’t have to embrace reality but we need to make our peace with it.
And for me, adding Wacha now adds an element of closure to the ugly 2012 Draft. The Mets had the 12th pick in the draft that year, which was the first one where teams were limited in how much they could spend. The Mets decided to go cheap early in the draft to spend more in the later rounds. It didn’t make sense at the time and looks every bit as bad with the benefit of hindsight.
My preference was for the Mets to spend more early and grab Lucas Giolito, who went to the Nationals four picks later. Giolito had TJ surgery and took a while to get established in the majors. But last year it finally came together for him and he put up a 5.1 fWAR season. Meanwhile, the Mets took Gavin Cecchini, who signed for $2.3 million or $250,000 under slot. Gioltio signed for $2.925 million or $800,000 above slot for where the Nats picked.
In a comment left by me in the above-linked, June 2012 article was this snippet:
Pitchers are always going to be injury risks. That’s why it’s more important to stockpile them than middle infielders. If Giolito was too much of a risk for your tastes, I’d rather have any of the pitchers drafted consecutively from 19-22 over Cecchini.
Wacha was the 19th pick and Stroman was the 22nd pick.
A rarity to see a “bet on yourself” deal.
In a world where guys like Harvey and Gausman can get salaries in the range of $10 mil despite having horrific cringe worthy seasons, you have to wonder how bad Wacha’s agent is to only have gotten him a $3 mil guarantee.
Wacha will essentially be pitching for his job all season and have no job security. If he’s struggling for an extended stretch and he has bonuses due for additional starts, then he will always have the threat of being cut to avoid paying the incentives.
He’s not betting on Himself for Next Year’s money, alone…. if Wacha Pops 180-200 innings and a sub 4 ERA, he will then guarantee himself a multi season contract of at least 10 million per season. He’s taking a shot in a decent Pitcher’s Park with a team that can help him win games…and they have a wide open slot for him to roll out and pitch 30 games, if he’s healthy.
Name, Grandal took a “bet on yourself” offer last year and it sounds like Porcello will too. He has supposedly rejected a three year offer to take one year only in order to re-enter the market in a better position.
As for Wacha, I could live with this deal in January when the options are limited. In December, while there are healthy and effective pitchers available, I don’t understand this move.
If the Mets aren’t going to spend, then I’m with TJ and few others who in the Catch-All said they prefer a standstill rather than lose youngsters in order to dump the overpriced players the Mets have accumulated.
I should clarify my comment as you are right that players often sign 1 year deals in hopes of securing a big multi year contract down the road.
The contract that Wacha sign offers him little guarantee of lasting even the entire year and puts him in constant scrutiny.
Let’s just say his incentives are $1 mil for his 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th, 30th start.
That means at start 9,14,19,24,29 you have to take a hard look and decide whether you want to start him next game and pay him, or cut him and go with an alternative. This is different from someone with a fully guaranteed deal who has to truly stink it up like Trevor Rosenthal for the team to move on because maybe he has so-so 4.90 ERA but the Mets decide that Peterson is worth a shot and they could cut Wacha.
Why were you expecting the Wilpon Mets to be chasing more expensive pitchers right now? That was a pipe dream on your part.
Instead of being upset that they didn’t go after Player X with an 8-figure salary now, be glad that they got someone with realistic upside who wouldn’t be available if they followed your path and waited until the end of January to make this type of move.
I’ll answer both Name and Brian here.
Name, I hope they aren’t such scumbags about looking to screw a pitcher. IF they want to shut him down or send him to the bullpen at some point, splitting hairs doesn’t get you ahead with next year’s crop of free agents.
Brian, I wasn’t happy with the Wacha signing as a solo move, but combined with Porcello it’s ok, for one spot. However, if they are guaranteeing him a spot when he just two months ago had inflammation in his shoulder, then I have to take pause. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the guy throw 170 innings! I’d prefer to see a Gio Gonzalez or a Ivan Nova signed and letting these three guys handle two spots.
Why would it be wrong to cut a guy who isn’t performing well…
The player signed the contract. If he’s an idiot then hopefully he surrounds himself with smart people who can explain these things to him. He signed a very team friendly contract and now he’s going to have to live with it. For the Mets, it gives them the option of cutting him at any point with minimal risk.
LOL, “If he’s an idiot then hopefully he surrounds himself with smart people who can explain these things to him.” True!
I didn’t imply they shouldn’t cut him if he isn’t doing the job. I meant that they shouldn’t look to just screw him if it’s only to save money. My motivation for the former is feeling Mesoraco got screwed by the Mets last year. If he had a verbal agreement to be released, or if it was implied, or if there was no agreement at all, as a veteran he should have been released. That’s a Jeff Wilpon move as he likes to throw his stature around. Last year the Mets signed many veterans to minor league deals, but I’m going to predict they sign no more than one veteran (I’m allowing for some desperate soul to swallow his pride and agree) of more than 6 or 7 years because that treatment will be on everyone’s mind.
If you are a Mets fan than drafting poorly is in your DNA. The evaluation of hitters has never been our strong point. That being said, there are always surprises. One of those poor moves was selecting Steve Chillcott over a prospect named Reggie Jackson. On the other side of the draft coin was Mike Piazza who was drafted by the dodgers so low down that it would never have happened without Tommy Lasorda’s connection and prodding. The other issue is how we go about developing the talent we select which has always been suspect. I like the Wacha signing as a potential 5th starter and would like to bring in more candidates to compete for the spot. If more contracts were cheaper and then loaded with incentives, it would make more sense for the game. Strasburg, Cole and Rendon have broken the bank and in each case the second half of their contract could easily turn into albatrosses for their new teams. We have a strong nucleus and if Ces comes back we are pretty strong. Can’t wait for SP.
Wow – MetsBlog reporting Mets to sign Porcello!!!
No confirmation yet at ESPN
Porcello is a bit of a gamble as well, but as Name pointed out, $10 mil is the going rate for gambling on a veteran starter that have any glimpse of MLB success. I see this as a better gamble than Macha, although the Mets’ defense will need to play well behind a more contact pitcher.
Now, in Metland, when we hear “good” news, there is usually something offsetting or negating it. Hopefully this doesn’t mean parting with controllable talent married to a bad contract to fit in the budget. Hopefully it doesn’t mean trading one of their 2 though 4 starters. And, hopefully it doesn’t mean they are settled on the pen…a more legit BP arm would be a better spend than Macha as a 6th starter/pen guy.
If we are bringing up all the should-a would-a could-a’s on the 2012 draft.
Corey Seager
Michael Wacha*
Marcus Stroman*
Jose Berrios
Joey Gallo
Lance McCullers
Alex Wood
Edwin Diaz*
Max Muncy
Jake Lamb
Josh Hader
* People now on the Mets
Personally, I find speculation days after the draft that was proven right to be much more interesting than applying perfect hindsight 7 1/2 years later. YMMV
I recall wanting both Seager, Giolito and Wacha more than Cecchini.
Interesting list David, especially in light of the news that the Mets are still chasing Hader. The Brewers needs are first base and starting pitcher. Do the Mets have any excess in those areas?
My opinion: I don’t care how unbelievably phenomenal incredible amazing Hader is, I’m not chasing another reliever’s tail. Smith and a medium prospect, like Sanchez, would be ok. If they don’t like it, let them see if the Dodgers or Yankees give up more.
Well hell Smith and a prospect for Hader is too good to be true.
Wacha strikes me as someone with the potential to bounce back if his home run rate stabilizes (22.0% HR/FB in 2019!). Now that MLB has finally admitted that the seam height has been lower on the baseballs, we’ll see if that issue is corrected and HR rates stabilize across the league. If they do, Wacha should be able to recapture his old form.