Lots of David Wright news going on recently so let’s talk about that and get you to share your opinions.
If you recall, Wright had the best first half of any third baseman but a late push from the San Francisco voters gave the starting All-Star game nod to Pablo Sandoval. Wright was selected to the team but got hosed out of a starting berth. Now it feels like Déjà vu all over again, as some believe that Wright again got slighted when news came down that Chase Headley won the Gold Glove Award. Here is a fielding comparison between the two players:
| Fld Pct | Chances | Double Plays | DRS | UZR | |
| Wright | .974 | 384 | 19 | 16 | 15.4 |
| Headley | .977 | 425 | 14 | (-3) | 6.0 |
Headley had more chances and a higher fielding percentage but the advanced numbers favor Wright by a whopping margin. So, here’s poll question #1.
Loading ...Also yesterday, news came down that the Mets picked up Wright’s $16 million option while continuing to negotiate a long-term contract. The Mets had hoped to have the Wright extension worked out by now but because they didn’t – picking up his option was a no-brainer.
For the sake of the following polls, let’s assume that the 2013 option stands and whatever deal the club works out will begin in 2014. Now, it may or may not work out this way, but this is the simplest way for us to do it, so that’s how we’ll proceed. Please remember, vote on what you think Wright *will* get, not what you *hope* he will get. We’d all love it if he signed a four-year deal for $60 million but we know that’s not going to happen.
Loading ... Loading ...Finally, which one do you see being more problematic for the Mets – the length of the deal or the dollars involved? Frequently the two go hand-in-hand but sometimes one can outweigh the other.
Loading ...Thanks for taking the time to read and vote. I hope everyone made it through Sandy okay and with minimal damage.
Playing here in New York does provide David with an opportunity for additional income via endorsements locally and nationally if he so chooses. So hopefully management will make an offer to him that both sides can feel good about.
I just wonder where are the catchers and OFer’s are coming from? Just wait till 2017? Wright can’t do it on his own and the only bat you can count on belongs to Flores who is not a middle infielder, was too slow at SS and will be too slow at 2B especially as he begins to fill out.
I guess Flores now gets traded for one of the pieces but Wright would bring back so much more than Flores and at some point over the length of Wright’s new deal Flores will be the better player and at about 10 M for six years as opposed to 120 M the ability to surround Wright with comparable talent in the lineup will be so much more difficult than doing the same with Flores.
It’s kind of like the Curtis Granderson, Austin Jackson deal. Yankees got the best of it early but right now it’s looking like the Tigers got the best end of it. I know it’s what the owners want for attendance reasons but I do not think it is for the best long term interests of the team, depending of course on what Wright could be traded for which is a big unknown.
What is known though is that Wright needs help in the lineup and while Davis, Tejada and Murphy are decent enough there is much, much more that needs to be added and where it’s going to come from is a mystery as is when. Will it come from Ike, Niese, Fulmer, Montero, Tapia? Will it get here before Wright begins his inevitable decline (most likely beginning in 2015 or 2016) Will a declining Wright commanding 20 M a year for 3-4 years be tradeable or just another albatross? Will the prospects(s) given up to fill in around Wright come back to haunt us? Will the players they get us make the difference?
This is a very slippery slope that we are treading on and one that threatens to keep us mediocre in the present and on into the future as well.
I don’t buy the “Wright as attendance attraction” argument. People will come out to see a winning team or a player going after a big record, like when Dickey was going for Win #20. If the Mets continue to tread water and be a 75-win team, having Wright on the team will not matter.
I totally agree. It’s not as if he’s representative of a glorious era in Mets history. They lost. They collapsed. Beltran and Reyes have moved on. What’s the big deal in retaining Wright if they aren’t going to be able to surround him with the talent to compete? The argument for keeping Wright is that he’s really good and not quite replaceable. But they happen to have a prospect who’s best position is third. And they aren’t on the cusp of greatness. So, in my opinion, its a worthwhile risk for the Mets to convert Wright into a few promising pieces. For the sake of the fan base, and the politics of playing in a major market, they’d have to get back one piece that’s sellable but also young enough to be a cog in the next great Met era — say, Gordon or Upton — and a prospect or a lesser piece that would have immediate value on the major league roster, say a defensive CF or platoon catcher or reliever with ‘stuff.’ A trade like this would have two ancillary effects that I can see: It would free up cash for to extend guys like Ike, Harvey, even Gee, in addition to FAs like Soria and Hairston; and, further, it would add some depth to the organization that can be used to add a piece like Bourjos.
This is along the lines of what I’d like to see them do this offseason.
I agree Brian that a winning team is all that is required to solve attendance issues.
What I really mean is three fold. 1) The Wilpon’s don’t want to be known as the owners who let Reyes AND Wright sign elsewhere. 2) They don’t want a media ****storm over losing Wright and 3) they want season ticket and plan renewals and single game tickets this coming year and that’s what’s driving the decision.
I would have loved Reyes and Wright someday having their number’s on the wall but the big problem with our team is that we are always so top heavy in payroll and this seems to be more of the same.
We cannot win with just Wright and 3 decent hitters on top of bad defense and it is far more likely than not that we don’t have the pieces near enough to fill in around Wright before he’ll begin a decline in 3-4 years so it’s more about short term attendance and public relations than it is about putting a winning team on the field.
It is a different situation but the end result may very well be the same as Yankee ownership insisting Cashman resign A-Rod a few years ago.
Now Cashman has to work around that contract AND the likely lack of production at 3B the way Alderson has to do the same in LF now and perhaps 3B later.
A big part of a GM’s success is knowing when to say when. If RF, CF, LF and catcher had previously been attended too and those prospects were in AA and AAA re signing Wright would be a no brainer and would more than pay for itself but that is not the case.
If we trade away our future in order to go for it now yet again and fill in around Wright that way we just run into the same thing we have after every cycle of mini success. Top heavy payroll, no realistic prospects close, numerous needs and no cash.
Seeing Flores, Fulmer, Tapia and Montero helping their teams for long stretches at a time would be no different than watching Mora, Isringhausen, Bay, Cruz, Burnitz, Endy Chavez (the first time) and Heath Bell do the same while we are restricted to the FA market or the scrap heap for every need and without the ability to take on salary dumps where does that leave us?
I’d like to believe that Flores will be successful at the ML level, but at this point to proclaim that he will be a better player at some point is wishful thinking. You might be correct, but then again…..
I guess that’s why the best scouts or the statistical-savvy followers can never be sure of their predicted outcomes. At some point you have to make a bet on the youngster or the established player.
You are correct in stating that Wright can’t do it without additional help. If you trade him for that help you are gambling that this new help along with the untested Flores will create a more successful Mets team. If it were up to me I’d want to be overwhelmed by the young talent in a trade for Wright. Then we’d have to see if Mr. Flores would be able to live up to your prediction.
Keeping Wright limits the team’s ability to fill in the gaps left by the minor league personnel.
To trade Wright would cause such an uproar with the fan base that I don’t see that as an option. Everyone keeps talking prospects and how they will become our future stars. Here you have a proven commodity in David Wright.You don’t hear anything negative on or off the field about him. He’s part of the foundation from which you build upon.You speak about his decline why? You don’t think he can produce in his early 30’s? Drop Murphy to the 6 hole, Ike stays clean up.Let’s look to acquire someone who with speed who can get on base in front of David. We still need a right handed bat but I don’t see the Mets moving Bay so put him at 5 hole for the beginning of the season and let’s see what happens.
In an ideal world we keep Wright. But this decade has been anything but ideal for the Mets. It’s why the team should explore trading every player on the roster – including Wright. It doesn’t mean trading them no matter what but if a team offers good value then the Mets should pull the trigger.
And there’s no way on earth Jason Bay should bat ahead of Wright.
Even with the second half, Wright had a good season. He had a 7.8 WAR which equals around 35M in value. A WAR above 4.0 would be about 18M, a value Wright should be able to achieve over the next few years. It would be only 2M more than they are paying him now. Six years is very lengthy, but for Wright , because of what you get off the field, it would be a worthy risk. (and I don’t normally advocate for long expensive contracts but the Mets should be able to absorb one in the future).
7Train makes a valid arguement but a trade doesn’t guarantee anything, there is risk in that also. The strong Met starting pitching makes it necessary to improve the team defensively which only makes signing Wright more appealing. Wright should be traded if he refuses an extension this winter. I would not want a repeat of the Reyes fiasco.
Wright had a very good season.
But I’m scared of the “shape” that Wright’s season took. The vast majority of his value came in the first half of the season (5.1 fWAR by end of June) and what he produced down the stretch was too much like what he did in 2011 for my comfort. Then there’s the fielding. Wright had a 15.4 UZR after being a double-digit negative each of the past three years. That’s a 2.5 Win swing on defense alone. To my eyes, he looked like a great fielder last year. But if you asked me if I thought he could post a 15.4 UZR again in 2013, I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on it.
Generally, there’s not much to splits for predictive value but what’s true for the general population may not hold for the individual.
I don’t think anyone worries too much about Wright being worth his contract in the beginning of the deal. The issue is if he’s an albatross by the end of it. Five years down the road, I don’t want to be counting down the days until Wright’s contract comes off the books and how we get to replace his sorry carcass.
Is it Wright’s fault that ownership doesn’t have the financial means to attain another bat? The only reason the Mets are mediocre is because the Wilpons’ don’t have any money for free agents. Almost every team has 1 bad contract.The Mets are treading water until 2014 after which Bay and Santana will come off the books. I understand that. Bay batting 5th would give alternating lefty, righty with Wright batting 3rd,Ike 4th,Bay 5th and Murphy 6th. I don’t think Sandy will be able to move Jason.So I’m just trying to make the best over a bad situation and I agree Bay cannot bat in front of David. I think you misunderstood my previous comment.
No, it’s not Wright’s fault that the Wilpons are cash poor.
But, since that’s the situation we have, giving Wright some type of $120 million contract is not helping the predicament.
My first choice by a mile is for Wright to be a life-long Met. But if the only way that happens is to overpay him – in both dollars and years – I’d rather that they trade him for young major league talent and then invest the remainder of the savings into the team in multiple places.
Flores can hit. He will always hit and the power is coming. The Mets would be foolish to trade their best hitting prospect while operating at a 100 million dollar payroll. If either gets trade, the money dictates that it should be David and I think that since they probably won’t fill enough holes this offseason, Dickey should be traded to gain valuable pieces for a 2014 run towards dominance. Attendance is based on winning with the Mers, not based on number 5. If they trade David, yes the attendance will drop, but depending on who they get, that all goes away if they become a fun, young, winning team in 2014.
I have a question for those of you who could see David Wright being traded for the “right” players. Who is going to play 3rd base? Yes his production dropped as the season progressed but take into account when Ike didn’t bat behind him who was hitting.I think opposing teams would look at the Mets line-up and say who is the one player who we can’t let beat us?
I am not sure that a big market would develop for David that would make sense to trade him but if it did then I would line up Turner, Murphy, Lutz, Flores, Marte and Campbell and yes I know that we would not be as good, at least for the first few years at 3B and maybe never but if we were to add a full time OFer and a first string catcher, the combination of whoever seizes 3B and those 2 players and the payroll flexibility offered by having them in their early years, added to what we have on the way would be a very attractive scenario.
If Dickey and Johan could get us another one of those pieces each we could very well find ourselves dealing from a position of strength especially if MDD, Harris, Vaughn, Forsythe or Pena develop. Then we can talk to any team about any player because we’ll have what it takes to get who we want and not be restricted to only those that are free agents or non tendered.
So yeah. I live with Turner, Murphy, Lutz, Flores, Marte and Campbell while expecting that one of them (or two if need be) will hold the fort and someone will eventually take over at league average offensively and defensively and if not at least we have pared down the positional needs and done so for a 6-10 years.
If we then do need to address 3B down the road it is a position that is not in short supply. For every Cinn, Miami, Philly or Atlanta there is a Texas, Detroit or San Diego that have a top prospect or two blocked and with free agents no longer costing first round draft choices, payroll flexibility in solving OF and catcher with inexpensive long term solutions and Bay and Santana coming off we could go that route as well.
You don’t need an All Star at every position either. If Wright got us two above average future starting position players we’d be in pretty good shape and who’s to say Arenado, Olt, Castellanos or Spangenburg wouldn’t find their way to Queens via a trade.