Over the next few weeks, we are going to look at the 15 or so Mets who figure to get the most playing time in 2013. The staff of Mets360 is going to offer up predictions for those players in some basic categories. None of us have detailed projection systems. Instead, this is just what we feel the player is going to contribute in the upcoming season.
There is no doubt that a detailed projection system is the way to go on these things. But, those are far from infallible, too. My hope is that with the wide range of opinions that we offer here, that our group can come up with some reliable “wisdom of the crowd” numbers for the players under discussion. We kick things off with a look at Ike Davis.
| Davis Projection | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | Ks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray | 515 | .280 | .345 | .510 | 30 | 110 | 118 |
| Groveman | 600 | .260 | .350 | .450 | 28 | 100 | 140 |
| Hangley | 632 | .273 | .347 | .486 | 32 | 101 | 141 |
| Koehler | 600 | .265 | .345 | .540 | 35 | 90 | 130 |
| Mcwilliam | 515 | .237 | .321 | .470 | 26 | 85 | 135 |
| Parker | 580 | .252 | .325 | .520 | 28 | 87 | 141 |
| Rogan | 595 | .265 | .355 | .540 | 37 | 96 | 140 |
| Rogers | 550 | .270 | .320 | .455 | 35 | 110 | 140 |
| Stack | 587 | .272 | .363 | .502 | 35 | 99 | 145 |
| Vasile | 590 | .270 | .345 | .500 | 32 | 95 | 130 |
| Walendin | 572 | .249 | .331 | .474 | 27 | 73 | 136 |
Since we did not forecast the individual numbers that go into the triple slash lines, we are going to use average for the counting numbers and median for AVG, OBP and SLG to come up with our Mets360 forecast. Here is what our group as a whole projects for Davis in 2013:
PA – 576
AVG – .265
OBP – .345
SLG – .500
HR – 31
RBIs – 95
Ks – 136
You may have noticed a name missing from the above chart – mine. I did not intentionally leave mine out. We have 13 people who were supposed to contribute to this project and only 12 responded. In order to make the median numbers work out, my set was removed. Hopefully for the next projection mine will be back in with the group, where they belong.
Here are my numbers – 562 PA, .252/.333/.489, 31 HR, 95 RBIs, 120 Ks
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of two projection systems – Bill James and ZiPS.
| Davis Projection | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | Ks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 584 | .266 | .354 | .511 | 31 | 94 | 121 |
| Mets360 | 576 | .265 | .345 | .500 | 31 | 95 | 136 |
| ZiPS | 481 | .245 | .328 | .453 | 21 | 70 | 120 |
In general, the Bill James projections tend to be more “optimistic” than other systematic projection systems. In the particular case of Davis, it seems like ZiPS is having trouble handling his schizophrenic year in 2012, when he started off so poorly and ended up strong. These systems also take into account previous numbers and Davis playing so few games in 2011 is undoubtedly hurting the forecast, too.
Our forecasts will run on Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.
I see Ike in light of the infection from last year. Having had 2 bouts of mono (you know, you can’t get it more than once!) and then shingles (a relative), I know what fatigue is like, for months after being over the illness.
I think Ike hits .270 and approaches 40 home runs.
The 2013 Mets are a very likable bunch of underdogs, including hard nose play of Murphy at 2nd, the humble upcoming of our shortstop, and David anchoring at 3rd. Our infield is special.
Todd Harvey reminds me of Seaver. He appears to have a compact ‘healthy’ pitching motion which does push off his legs. This is critical for a fastball pitcher. I love his mechanics.
With the new kid catcher, Zach Wheeler looking to come up…there are a lot of positives. What if Duda returns to Left Field and does what we think he is capable of doing?
We will be a dark horse and have a lot of fun.
Reading what U wrote, i think U are right. A few more weeks till “spring training” looking foward to it. Lets go METS. have a reat weekend.
Peter,
I agree about Ike and as you can see I was very optimistic about his power potential in 2013. I too feel that his health was part of his issues last year, as well as still learning to adjust to the big leagues. Remember, at the start of the 2012 season he really only had what was generally the equivalent of a single full season in the majors and the start of his 2011 was fantastic.
I also agree with your overall optimism about the team. However, I’m as concerned as most with the state of the OF. If there aren’t some improvements made then it will take some very unlikely events to happen for this team to make a serious run.
I think Ike will easily hit .270, but I’m not sure he reaches 40 home runs just yet. In the prime of his career, he could definitely be a 40 HR/year guy, but he’s got some kinks to work out first, including being more selective at the plate. I say he hits 40 3-4 seasons from now.
Ike Davis – as he currently hits – will never be part of truly winning Mets team.
All you need to do is look at his splits between LH starters (bad enough) and the fall to what happens when he faces LH relief pitchers. Last year was not an aberration. Those splits are horrific and they really validate what I my eyes told me.
Time and again, Ike Davis comes to the plate after the 6th inning in a clutch situation and he is wiped out by the opposing manager bringing in a LHP.
I know this sounds like heresy and the boo birds will be on me in a NY second … but I would trade Davis in this rough time period, move Duda to 1B and get yourself a hitter in RF or CF.
One way or the other, Ike Davis will break your heart one day.
Ike Davis was just incredibly bad last year vs LHP, absolutely. “Incredibly bad” is probably even an understatement. But I noticed something interesting when doing some research for these predictions, and that was Davis’ splits in 2010, his only other “full” year in the majors:
2010
RHP: .254/.348/.439
LHP: .295/.362/.443
That really surprised me. Was 2010 the aberration? Or was it 2012? It’s one of the things that will be interesting to watch for in 2013.
In my mind, the stats and splits Ike Davis put up last year have to be taken with a grain of salt. Most of his numbers were severely skewed by the horrid start.
I mean, this is someone who hit .102 at home for the first two Months, didn’t get his first XBH at Citi field until May 16, and didn’t hit his first HR at Citi until June 18.
The splits I am referring to were replicated in the previous year, and in reality have nothing to do with his illness/issues with the early part of the year.
My recollection of his collapse against LH relief pitchers carries through the entire year. His leash for this year will be pretty short, and I hold my opinion.
LH relief pitchers overwhelm him, and that is a split that will consistently lose you ball games is you depend on your slugger.
That’s true. But if you don’t supply a dependable bat behind Ike then all teams will continue to pitch around him. He needs to learn to take the walks even if he believes they don’t help the team. The Mets had a terrific left handed first baseman who hit lefties fairly well, I can’t know why they just don’t invite Keith to spring training and give Ike a chance to pick his brain and pick up some pointers. Can’t hurt.
At the end of the season I thought the same way. The problem, as always is the Met budget. The only player that is a fit is josh Reddick in Oakland, ssimilar salary, age and the A’s could use a 1B. The risk is expecting Duda to rebound and I’m not as confident about that.
I wonder if part of the Duda issue is that he is constantly out of whack on defense, and that fear of being the worst guy on the field is translating problems at the plate. Basically if he can’t field, then his value is only at the plate. If he’s already questioning things by being poor in the field, then he can’t be relaxed at the dish. I’d move him to 1B and give him a chance to see if that would help, esp if getting an prime outfielder for Ike was in the works.
I completely agree, and I would trade him in a flash. He is part of the lefty v lefty issue we have that has been unattended by Hudgens. Last year a number of people here, myself included, advocated for an Ike for Josh Reddcik trade, which I believe name or Metsense originally suggested. Ike was a minor concern for pitching last year given how lousy he was at the plate (valley fever or not), and so got plenty of pitches. But with getting the HR count up in the second half, I’m not expecting him to get quite so many pitches this go around. And versus LHP the outcome is easily predictable. He may be part of the answer for the future, but if trading him for a serious outfielder could happen, Id be all in on moving him.
Reddick helps us tremendously, a defensively gifted OF with no real splits and power.
Unfortunately for the Mets I have a hard time seeing how Davis fits into a team that already has a lefty masher at 1B that’s young and cost controlled.
BUT … if you put together a package that includes a solution for Beane at 3B (yes, I’m looking at you Wilmer) and Ike Davis, you might have a deal.
Yeah, packaging with Flores would be spot on. I’d love to get Reddick in Mets orange and blue.
You bet and the A’s have excess outfielders.
There are other dance partners … you could look at Texas. There’s Tampa Bay, Colorado. Houston of course, but they are the most bereft team of talent in years.
I’d put Cargo or Fowler into our lineup. Tampa and Texas both have chits we could use to parlay into a three way trade or keep for ourselves. Or why not simply trade Ike Davis for Myers, straight up?
It wouldn’t be like Sandy, but my only fear about him going to a table with Beane is that he’d come home with Crisp and leave Flores behind.
Not mention … a certain RF in our division. Say you package a solution at 3B (Flores), 1B (Davis), CF (den Dekker) and a tier one pitcher (Sondergaard or Wheeler, whatever it takes).
Stanton is just soooooo good.
Stanton would be a coup…even the thought of it surely would get any Met fan all a flutter. Looking a SAs moves though, he clearly is moving on the pitching “über alles” path, so I can’t see any of the projected starters on the block for any reason (Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Syndergaard). Even with the fence changes, Citi plays big and so I think they are headed for a strong rotation, with just enough pop — perhaps a bit like the Giants. Clearly, we lag in speed and power by comparison, but I suspect that’s what we will end up seeing. With that in mind, it really highlights the work in the OF and the pen he needs to do.
Ike for Myers…me likey.
Packaging Flores must be on his mind quite a bit.
Yeah,Ike looked downright pathetic against lefties last season.Overmatched.
Another thing about Ike last season,his defense was at times awful.At times he didn’t seem to give much of an effort.I don’t mind physical errors,they happen,but he sometimes didn’t even seem to know what the right play was.
I think that now that Ike is one more year further removed from his injuries and illness that his health will no longer be a topic of discussion. If the Mets can put a steady bat behind Ike I do believe he will not only improve on last years numbers but cut down on strikeouts.
First of all Brian, a really great idea that should open up some good old fashioned baseball arguements amongst the posters. I think the 360 Consensus is realalistic and accurate. Davis could really improve his WAR by having a very solid defensive year also. National League first baseman averaged 22 HR, 89 RBI, .777 OPS so Ike would be way above average and probably the 3rd or 4th best first baseman in the league if he can meet this projection. He settled arbitration today at a very fair 3.125M. I’m bullish on Ike in 2013.
I would welcome the return of the 2010 defensive version of Davis.
In response to Chris F. If trading Ike Davis makes your day, then who would you replace him with at first bass? Lucas Duda?
If we got a power hitting outfielder in the deal, yes, I would move Duda to 1B and give him a year to see if his natural position led to him improving at the plate. I think part if his issue is constantly being told he sucks as a defender in the OF, which places a very heavy toll on him producing at the plate. I’m not sure it’s a perfect solution, but a trade for (someone like) Reddick would already balance Ike’s production.
So your going to trade a proven commodity in Ike Davis just to see if Lucas doesn’t strikeout 200 times in a season? Why trade a corner infielder who basically just hit 30 home runs and 90 RBI’S with only Scott Hairston hitting behind him? I don’t see the Mets trading Ike Davis and his team friendly contract. Let’s see what free agent Sandy signs to help the outfield in 2013. Put Duda in a package for a starter or corner outfielder. Preferably an American League team with a need for first baseman/DH.
Trade Ike for someone with equivalent or better production. Don’t forget that. Duda just become a possible answer at 1B.
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Yeah, I was pretty close on this one.