Next up in our projection series is Dillon Gee. From an ERA and W-L prospective, it was a so-so year for Gee, who posted a 6-7 record with a 4.10 ERA before coming down with a season-ending injury. But looking at his peripherals, Gee had a very interesting year. He significantly added to his strikeouts and significantly reduced his walks allowed. He finished the year with a 3.34 K/BB ratio, which doubled his 2011 mark in the category.
By all accounts, Gee is over the damaged artery in his pitching shoulder and should be ready to go at the start of Spring Training. Will 2013 be the year when Gee turns peripherals into results? Or will he regress in those departments and turn in a forgettable season? Here’s what out group thinks Gee will do this year:
| Gee Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB | QS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hangley | 172 | 3.62 | 135 | 47 | 15 |
| Joura | 190 | 3.60 | 143 | 63 | 20 |
| Koehler | 170 | 4.00 | 120 | 50 | 14 |
| Manners | 140 | 3.90 | 125 | 49 | 17 |
| Mcwilliam | 185 | 4.35 | 139 | 55 | 22 |
| Parker | 150 | 4.50 | 100 | 60 | 10 |
| Rogan | 165 | 4.15 | 150 | 65 | 17 |
| Rogers | 150 | 4.25 | 95 | 35 | 10 |
| Stack | 175 | 3.87 | 153 | 53 | 18 |
| Vasile | 180 | 4.15 | 140 | 55 | 22 |
| Walendin | 201 | 3.89 | 172 | 60 | 23 |
Nobody sees Gee’s injury as likely to significantly disrupt his 2013 season but there is still a wide variety of opinions on what he will give the Mets. Spencer Manners sees both a relatively good ERA and a high number of Quality Starts yet has the fewest innings from him. Charlie Hangley sees an average innings year from him, with the second-best ERA, yet fewer QS than Manners. Chris Walendin sees him cracking the 200-IP barrier while Doug Parker thinks he will be neither overly durable nor overly effective.
Here’s what the group thinks Gee will do in 2013:
If you combine the Gee projection along with the ones that we did earlier for Jonathon Niese and Matt Harvey, we see these three pitchers giving the Mets 541.2 IP and a collective 3.67 ERA. Last year’s three pitchers with the most innings pitched delivered 541 IP and a 3.43 ERA.
Assuming that our forecasts are 100% accurate, we’ve already made up for the loss of innings from R.A. Dickey and are not far from matching the quality he delivered over those innings, too.
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of two projection systems – Bill James and ZiPS.
| Gee Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 55.0 | 4.09 | 43 | 19 |
| Mets360 | 170.2 | 4.00 | 134 | 54 |
| ZiPS | 134.1 | 4.49 | 110 | 46 |
Both of our systematic projection systems see Gee throwing significantly fewer innings and with much worse results. FanGraphs now has projections from two more systems available on its player pages – Steamer and Oliver. Steamer in particular is noteworthy because their pitching projections are highly regarded.
Steamer sees 173 IP and a 4.16 ERA, which is extremely similar to the Mets360 forecast of 170.2 IP and a 4.00 ERA. Oliver predicts 148 IP and a 4.07 ERA.
Check back Saturday for our next entry in this series.
I had no idea I was that smart…
I enjoy watching Dillon Gee pitch. His physical talent level is probably that of a journeyman, but his intelligence and toughness raises that level. Not everyone can be an ace, but every team can benefit from having players like Dillon Gee.
When Dillon Gee first came up, I was not very high on him: another Omar Minaya back of the rotation righty starter. Over the past two seasons, we’ve seen a transformation in Gee. His control is impeccable, his change up is very good, and in my book, I now see him with the ceiling of a 3 starter, which is a vast improvement over the 5 starter that he was seen as in the minor leagues.
I love the guile Gee pitches with and is a fine 4th and 5th starter to rely on.
I agree with Dan Stack. I’d definetely take him on my team as a back of the rotation starter. P.S I love the word guile.
Thank Bryan!
There were 86 NL starters that threw 80 innings. Gees rank in ( ).
Dillon Gee 4.10 ERA (54) 1.25 WHIP (41) .697 OPS (28) 3.71 FIP (32)
His stats in WHIP, OPS, and FIP indicate he is a #3 starter. I don’t think many are overly impressed by Gee in baseball. Eventually there will be 5 other Met starters that others will be impressed with. Gee is the kind of pitcher that will allow the more “impressive” pitchers to be traded for greater return talent while Gee will remain in the Met rotation as the hidden gem. I see Gee as the Mets future #5 starter that on another team he would be #3. I have high hopes for Gee (and the future staff of 2014 and beyond.) I think the consensus opinion is accurate.
A year ago, looking at the Mets dearth of position players, I hoped that Gee would become a tradeable chip. An asset we could move. I wanted to see the Mets flip him last year — that was my master, diabolical plan — then he got hurt and ruined that plan. I’d still love to see Gee re-establish himself as a quality starter this season, working for peanuts, and then ship him out as part of a larger package for a talented, everyday player or promising outfield prospect.