Mets360 2013 projections: John Buck and Travis d’Arnaud

11 comments on “Mets360 2013 projections: John Buck and Travis d’Arnaud”

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  Name On February 17, 2013 at 12:38 pm

  Just a suggestion. When you are doing platoons, you should remind each projector what a general number of PA’s someone can get in a season. If you use 4 PA’s a game with 162 is 650. Of course some will pinch hit and backups will also be used, but it should generally be in the 600-650 range.
  I mentioned this because i noticed that some of the projectors are off the mark. Projecting less is OK because one might think that someone else will get some playing time, but projecting more isn’t feasible because there aren’t that many PA’s available. There were 4 extremes: 3 had a combined projection of 700+ PA and 1 had only 390 PA. The other 6 were in the 500-600 range, but i even think the 500 mark is a bit low unless they think that another catcher will get 150 PA.
  Just food for thought.
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    Brian Joura On February 17, 2013 at 12:52 pm

    FWIW – Mets catchers had 601 PA last year. The other seven starting slots had between 660 and 704.
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      Name On February 17, 2013 at 1:30 pm

      Mets catchers were generally in the 7 or 8 hole last year. I think that Buck/D’arnaud will probably be hitting in the 5-7 spots most of the time so they should be closer to the 650-700 mark, unless someone is forecasting one of them getting hurt.

      The one i was most perplexed by was Groveman’s predicting for d’arnaud, which I now think was a typo. 6 HR’s and 21 rbi’s in 65 PA is kind of much; i think he meant it to be 165? Of course we can wait for him to comment and clear things up.
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    Rob Rogan On February 17, 2013 at 2:12 pm

    There will be at least 1 other catcher that will get PAs this year. It will be whoever backs up Buck to start the year, and whoever backs up d’Arnaud when he is brought up (probably Buck). The rest of the plate appearances not captured here would go to them.
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      Name On February 17, 2013 at 3:01 pm

      It all depends on when you think D’arnaud will be brought up (or if you think that one will get injured)
      My general rule of thumb is that a backup catcher will get max of 30-40 PA a month, which 2 starts a week at 4 PA per game.
  • 

    Joe Vasile On February 17, 2013 at 4:59 pm

    I’ll admit I was a high in my predictions. I don’t really foresee Buck getting 300 PA this year, but I tend to make my PA predictions based on a “best case scenario.” I think that Buck will, the best case (for him) get 300 PA this year. I also think that d’Arnaud will get 400 PA in his personal best case scenario. This adds up to 700, which will most likely not end up being the case over the course of a full season.
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      Name On February 17, 2013 at 5:26 pm

      At least you weren’t as high as Stack, who predicted 797 PA between the two!

      I only mentioned it for the upcoming projections on the OF. Since there probably is going to be a lot of rotating/platooning, just wanted to remind everyone to make sure that their PA make some sort of sense, as that could easily affect other counting stats like HR’s/RBI’s/hits
      • 

        Dan Stack On February 20, 2013 at 4:36 am

        Yeah, I never factored in the backup catcher who will backing up Buck at the beginning of the season. My bad.
  • 

    Bryan Mcwilliam On February 19, 2013 at 3:54 pm

    In response to the comment above. My projections were based on Buck, another catcher (Recker, Powell) and d’Arnaud getting PA’s.
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  Metsense On February 18, 2013 at 9:04 am

  NL Avg: 18 HR, 75 RBI, .722 OPS
  d’Arnaud: AAA Stats 16 HR, 52 RBI, .975 OPS
  Buck: 12 HR, 41 RBI, .644 OPS
  Recker:only 66 MLB AB’s : AAA stats 10 HR, 33 RBI, .789 OPS

  d”Arnard needs to win the starting catcher job sometime in 2013 and at least be an above average catcher in 2013 for the Mets to have any chance at .500 ball.
  Buck may likely be the starting catcher coming into 2013. Hopefully that will not be the case for the whole year. He is overpriced and has seen better years even though he is only 32 YOA. Buck as a backup would be solid enough and if Recker can stick (as third catcher) then his HR threat in late innings off the bench is a plus.
  Recker seemed to be a good minor league player and could catch on as the backup if d”Arnard is not ready. He also is a RH first baseman which could spell Davis.
  Buck makes 6M a year and is only 32YOA. Has he resigned himself to being Travis’ caddy in 2014 at 2M a year or is he hungry to start somewhere at 4M-5M a year? If he is hungry then I see him as a potential .780 OPS 16-20 HR player and traded by July 31st. I expect Travis to be promoted by June 1st (because of free agency rules) and produce better than an average NL catcher, similar to the consensus. Buck I also expect a big year like Rogers predicted, but the end results will be for another team. Recker will slot in nicely as d’Arnaud’s backup.
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