Next up in our projection series is Zack Wheeler. One of the top pitching prospects in the game, everyone expects Wheeler to make his major league debut sometime in the 2013 season. A minor Spring Training injury probably eliminated any slight chance Wheeler had of being on the Opening Day roster. Yet it would be a shock if he was not on the team at some point in September.
It’s hard enough to predict what pitchers are going to do in the best of circumstances. And with Wheeler we not only have to forecast how he will do versus major league hitters, but when he will make his debut and how long the Mets will let him go in what promises to be a non-playoff season. Remember they shut down Matt Harvey last year after a combined 169.1 IP.
So, here’s what we think Wheeler will do in the majors in 2013:
| Wheeler Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB | MLB Debut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joura | 65 | 3.93 | 60 | 35 | July |
| Koehler | 100 | 3.75 | 100 | 45 | July |
| Mcwilliam | 48 | 4.21 | 49 | 24 | September |
| OMalley | 87 | 3.80 | 70 | 30 | June |
| Parker | 125 | 3.50 | 115 | 55 | June |
| Rogan | 62 | 3.15 | 63 | 26 | July |
| Rogers | 150 | 4.10 | 120 | 55 | July |
| Stack | 98 | 3.59 | 101 | 30 | June |
| Vasile | 60 | 4.25 | 55 | 25 | July |
In a bit of a surprise, no one sees Wheeler being called up before June and only three people see a promotion that quickly. Perhaps the most interesting projection of all comes from Steve Rogers, who sees the Mets re-hiring Dallas Green to nurture Wheeler’s workload. Perhaps influenced by the fantastic debut of Harvey last year, none of us see Wheeler falling flat in his rookie season.
Here’s what the group as a whole thinks Wheeler will do with the Mets in 2013:
We think he will pitch more innings than Harvey did in the majors in 2012 but not be anywhere near as dominant as Harvey was, with an ERA a full run above what his fellow phenom recorded a season ago.
After the table and chart were compiled, Chris Walendin shared his thoughts on Wheeler. He expects: 90 IP, 4.16 ERA, 97 K, 36 BB and a July promotion.
Here’s what the other projection systems available on FanGraphs forecast for Wheeler in the majors this year:
| Wheeler Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 88.1 | 3.80 | 81 | 36 |
| Oliver | 114.0 | 3.81 | 92 | 59 |
| Steamer | 50 | 4.58 | 41 | 26 |
| ZiPS | 141.2 | 3.81 | 136 | 69 |
There was no forecast by James for Wheeler.
This wraps up our pitching projection series. However, we have one last thing to share. Each of us added which pitcher that we did not project that we expect to throw the most innings. Here’s an additional pitcher we see playing a key role for the 2013 club:
Joura – Greg Burke, 70 IP
Koehler – Brandon Lyon, 65 IP
Mcwilliam – Aaron Laffey, 99 IP
OMalley – LaTroy Hawkins, 36 IP
Parker – Jeremy Hefner, 120 IP
Rogan – Hefner, 94 IP
Rogers – Jenrry Mejia, 115 IP
Stack – Hefner, 100 IP
Vasile – Hefner, 100 IP
Walendin – Lyon, 82 IP
Check back this weekend when we wrap up our hitter projections.
Somehow, I missed this boat. Had I presented, it would have looked like this:
Wheeler: 90 IP, 3.72 ERA, 97 K, 40 BB, called up Memorial Day.
My dark horser picher would have been Mejia, with 112 IP.
I see Wheeler coming up around the same time as Harvey, which is why I saw him getting about 60 innings, roughly what Harvey got.
Same here. I see roughly around the same promotion date and I factored in the Mets shutting him down a bit early too.
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He will be up sometime in July after he loses Super 2 status. Heffner earned the first rotation replacement spot and I think Mejia will be force fed (because his window of opportunity to start is closing) if a second starter is needed before July. Barring unforseen circumstances it will be Wheeler in July. He is supposed to be more talented than Harvey and so I like Rogan’s ERA projection and month over the consensus but take the consensus in IP K’s and walks. I think his competitive spirit with Harvey is going to push him. This may be the year the Mets will actually improve in the second half instead of fading . Heffner will be the 100 inning man but Lyon will actually be a more key man.
One more thing, Alderson made a great trade in getting such a highly touted prospect in July 2011. The Mets dropped the ball in the winter of 2011 when they didn’t sign Beltran for two years at 26M . His 32 HR, 97 RBI’s and .842 in RF sure would have solved a need. A big market team would have made this move.
We didn’t have the money at the time and had Bay and Duda in the corners.
It’s still early, but I’m becoming more pessimistic about the contributions of Santana and Marcum.
I, too, don’t believe we will see Wheeler early on, because the Mets don’t want to lose the extra year
of control. Hefner and/or McHugh might have to play a larger role than was anticipated. I’m still not
sold on Mejia.
This McWilliam cat seems both pessimistic and confused. The pessimistic I buy but there’s now way Aaron Laffey pitches 100 innings when we have Hefner, McHugh, and Mejía all ahead of him.
I don’t think he’s confused. I’m with Mcwilliam in thinking that Laffey will pitch significant innings for us this season because when late April/May rolls around i think he will leapfrog McHugh and Meija on the SP depth chart.
Personally, i would have him on the starting schedule now but we have the idiot Terry Collins as our manager who thinks that the only role for Lefties is as a LOOGY.