Speculating on offers Mets turned down for Marlon Byrd

The trade deadline came and went without any deals being made by the Mets. Some people in the blogosphere are upset that the club did not deal Marlon Byrd. The argument goes that the next 50+ games are utterly meaningless and that the team would be better off flipping Byrd for whatever prospect(s) the club could get.

To my knowledge, there have not been any reports of a deal that the Mets declined so all we can do is speculate on what may have been available. There were reports that Sandy Alderson was looking for a prospect who would make a “Top-100” list. Hey, you never know unless you ask. There were also reports that the Mets were seeking a top 10-15 prospect from a club, which is quite different.

To me, that doesn’t pass the smell test. Allegedly, the Mets were looking for a top five prospect from a club last year for Scott Hairston and it seems unlikely the price would have fallen so much in just a year. But, for the sake of a column, let’s pretend that’s exactly what the Mets were being offered in a deal for Byrd.

The clubs that I heard mentioned the most often in terms of potential deals were Arizona, Baltimore, Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles (NL), Oakland, Pittsburgh and Texas. So, I went back and looked at the 10th prospect for each of those clubs coming into the 2013 season, as listed in the preseason by Baseball America. Here’s the type of player a club’s 10th-best prospect would be:

ARI – A.J. Pollock
BAL – Adrian Marin
BOS – Deven Marrero
DET – James McCann
LAD – Ross Stripling
OAK – Nolan Sanburn
PIT – Clay Holmes
TEX – Joey Gallo

Now, remember that this is the top of the prospect haul, because these are the 10th-best while the Mets were allegedly looking/being offered at #10-15. It could be that a club would consider #10 off-limits but make #11-15 available. Or it could be that #10 was a 3B and the last thing the Mets want to do is add another guy who would have to move from the position once they joined their organization.

Pollock you probably know about, as he’s logged significant time in the majors. Alderson said he wanted a guy ready to contribute right away and Pollock would fit the bill. He looks to be a league-average CF with room for growth. If the Mets turned down this trade, it would be understandable for the fan base to be upset. It’s also understandable if the Mets asked for Pollock and were turned down.

Marin is a SS taken in the third round in last year’s draft. He was a high school product advanced enough to start the year in a full-season league, something our first-round pick last year was unable to do. Marin has a .685 OPS in the SAL, a respectable mark for a young SS. To my mind, he has a similar offensive upside to Gavin Cecchini, so a lot would depend on his defensive ability. I wouldn’t be upset if the Mets turned down this offer if it was made.

Marrero is another SS taken in the 2012 Draft. A first-round pick, he played collegiately at Arizona State. He’s in Hi-A and a strong walk rate has him with a .671 OPS. Marrero is supposed to be a good fielder. This type of player has value but it’s also one that’s not too difficult to find. Reasonable people can disagree but this seems like utility infielder upside to me.

McCann was the Tigers’ second-round pick in 2011 out of Arkansas. He’s supposed to be an excellent defensive catcher with a questionable bat. He currently has a .692 OPS at Double-A after posting a .509 mark in 220 ABs at the same level last year. He is likely to be a career backup catcher.

Stripling was a fifth-round pick in 2012 out of Texas A&M. According to John Sickels, he threw 88-91 in college but last year in the minors he hit 96. He’s currently at Double-A, where he’s 5-1 with a 3.36 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He’s got 59 Ks and 9 BB in 61.2 IP. He’s definitely someone Alderson should have traded for Byrd.

Sanburn was a 2012 second-round pick out of Arkansas. He’s currently a reliever in the Lo-A Midwest League with uninspiring results in 10 IP. Supposedly a power arm, he seems like a lottery ticket with some definite upside but a lot of risk. He wouldn’t appear to be worth the risk with all of the arms the Mets already have.

Holmes was a ninth-round pick out of high school in the 2011 Draft. He got a $1.2 million signing bonus, so obviously he was well-regarded. Holmes had a strong year in short-season ball in 2012 but has struggled in Lo-A this year. He’s got a 5.49 BB/9 rate this year, which has led to a 4.21 ERA. This is another lottery ticket and one that it would be hard to fault Alderson for rejecting, if it was offered to him.

If you like power, you’ll like Gallo, a supplemental first-round pick in 2012. A high school prospect, Gallo clubbed 18 HR in 150 ABs in the Arizona League in 2012 and he added four more in 56 ABs in the Northwest League. This year he’s got 26 HR in 311 ABs in Lo-A. He also has fanned 135 times. Currently a third baseman, it’s likely he’ll move to first base. Everyone loves the power but how many guys have thrived in the majors after posting a 38.5 K% in the South Atlantic League? My guess is none.

So, running down the #10 prospects there are two guys that would be undeniable assets for the Mets. Now a 25% return would probably be okay, especially if you factor in the likelihood of backup-type contributions from some of the other six guys. However, this is the best of the lot and there’s no telling if these players were made off-limits by their respective clubs.

Given that, it’s hard to be upset with the Mets holding onto Byrd. The Mets’ farm system has reached the point where depth is not a major issue. If anything, the Mets have an excess of C-level prospects and it seems questionable why they would want to go out of their way to acquire more of them. For me the bottom line is that it’s okay to be disappointed that the Mets weren’t able to swing a deal for Byrd but if all Alderson was being offered were #10-15 prospects with backup player ceilings, then it’s preferable that he just held on to his cleanup hitter for the rest of the season.