Giving thanks for our readers and no Nelson Cruz

Louis CK pointed out that everything’s amazing and no one’s happy. In Mets land we have a variant of that theme where it’s a tough row to hoe and everyone acts as if the sky is falling. Every single thing gets interpreted in the worst possible light. No one is suggesting that it’s all sunshine and lollipops – it’s a long way from that – but does constant gloom and doom somehow make things all right in certain peoples’ worlds?

Recently the Mets’ have put out a lame Christmas video, saw potential SS option Jhonny Peralta sign a below-market deal with the Cardinals and inked outfielder Chris Young to a one-year deal. It’s a mixed bag of news yet it’s interpreted in each case as being proof of how awful the team is.

When the video came out and the overwhelming majority of reviews were bad, my reaction was not to watch it. Some people like looking at car wrecks. Once it’s clear that they are all strangers, my goal is to get past it as quickly as possible. The car wreck is not my problem and neither is what the team puts out as a video card. Let fans of other teams have a laugh and don’t spend one second worrying about it.

The Cardinals needed to upgrade from noodle bat Pete Kozma and got one of the top free agent shortstops available in Peralta. A lot of people are upset because the price tag didn’t seem too outrageous. Yet it is clear there was one price for the Cardinals and a more expensive price for everyone else. A player used his rights to sign with the team he preferred and that team was not the Mets.

The going freight for non-Cardinals teams was allegedly 5/$75 and it seems like an easy call to say no to that rate. Peralta was very good last year but over the past six seasons he’s been the exact opposite of consistent. Here are his OPS numbers, starting with 2013:

.815
.689
.824
.703
.690
.804

It would be super to get an .815 OPS from our shortstop. It would be another thing entirely to pay $15 million and get a .689 mark, instead. But that’s essentially what Peralta has delivered in three of the past six years. He’s also 32 and is listed at 215 pounds. While today’s SS bear little resemblance to Bud Harrelson, it’s still not a good idea to look like you spent the offseason at all-you-can-eat buffets. Just ask Ruben Tejada.

Even the Young signing gets panned by Mets fans. You hear, “It’s too much money!” or “Why didn’t they get an option year?” or “Did they even look at his batting average?!?”

No one is suggesting that fans rubber stamp every move or non-move made by the club. Instead, judge each one on its own merits and not let whatever previous baggage you may be carrying influence the move in question.

Which brings me to Sandy Alderson.

The honeymoon is long over for Alderson and the Matt Harvey injury only makes matters worse. Nothing is ever enough, no move is ever good and every non-move is fatal. The Mets are destined to finish 74-88 for the rest of eternity, with fans sentenced to worry about finishing with a bottom-10 record to avoid first-round draft pick compensation and then unhappy when the club refuses to sign any free agent with any compensation attached.

Last May, Mets baseball had me totally depressed. It’s one thing for circumstances to be against you but the Mets were horrible then because of decisions made by the manager and general manager. Since then Juan Lagares turned into an elite defensive center fielder, Dillon Gee got untracked and pitched extremely well, Zack Wheeler made his major league debut and made steady improvement and Alderson turned two old guys into two pieces who could be parts of a championship team in 2018.

My rock bottom happened in May. There have been a bunch of positives that happened since then. Certainly, it hasn’t all been positive – hello Terry Collins extension – but there have been more good developments than bad ones. The minor league system is starting to supply players and our general manager isn’t going to make a move just because the fan base demands a “splash.”

One doesn’t need to agree with everything Alderson does to view him as a positive for the franchise. When it comes to GMs, the gold standard for the Mets is Frank Cashen. He inherited a barren squad and after four dreadful years, the Mets broke out with an exciting team that won 90 games and had young stars galore.

Despite Cashen making splashy moves like importing big-name veterans like former All-Stars George Foster, Randy Jones, Dave Kingman and Ellis Valentine – it was moves to add talented youngsters to the system that ultimately paid off for him. And before you start complaining about Gavin Cecchini and Alderson’s draft record, recall that Cashen spent fourth-overall picks on Terry Blocker and Eddie Williams and the number-one pick on Shawn Abner, so it’s not like he was perfect in this regard, either.

Will Travis d’Arnaud, Dilson Herrera, Rafael Montero, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Noah Syndergaard and Wheeler be as fondly recalled as Ron Darling, Lenny Dykstra, Sid Fernandez, Dwight Gooden, Kevin Mitchell, Darryl Strawberry and Walt Terrell as youngsters brought into the system? Odds are against it yet it does not seem impossible, either. The latter septet produced 131.0 fWAR as Mets, so it would be quite an accomplishment if they did.

The Mets wanted us to believe before the 1980 season that the magic was back. Over the next four years they proceeded to go 241-358 for a .409 winning percentage, which works out to 66-96 in a traditional 162-game season. In 1983 they lost 94 games and went 10-16 in September. If the internet was around back then, Cashen’s popularity would have been in the toilet.

Yet we know how that story played out.

The Mets took off when the youngsters Cashen assembled were teamed up with a dynamic new manager. It’s disappointing that Alderson saw fit to keep old man Collins around. Still, there’s a reason to be hopeful given the youngsters that Alderson has added to the team.

He still needs to add the in-his-prime veteran like Keith Hernandez and he still needs to find the aggressive Davey Johnson-type manager. But Cashen added the veteran during the fourth season and the manager prior to the fifth.

My hope was that Shin-Soo Choo could play the role of Hernandez for this version of the Mets. While he couldn’t hope to match the defense or the leadership of Hernandez, it sure would have been nice to have added a guy with a lifetime .389 OBP to the order. The key is for Alderson to add a productive veteran, not the next Foster or Valentine.

Hernandez added 26.2 fWAR during his career in Flushing, including three straight years with at least a 5.0 fWAR. He never reached his 1979 MVP peak (7.9 fWAR) but it was just what the doctor ordered for a young team. When the Mets do spend money on a veteran, it needs to be someone with a solid track record yet still young enough to provide strong, if not peak, production going forward. In the four years before joining the Mets, Hernandez delivered 23.1 fWAR. In his first four full seasons in New York, he produced 20.1 fWAR.

Meanwhile, Peralta added 12.1 fWAR his four previous seasons. Given his inconsistent track record, was this really the veteran the Mets absolutely needed to add to the team?

Even Choo only added 14.8 fWAR the past four years, so it’s hard to fault Alderson for not making him the impact veteran. My feeling is that Choo will surpass that total the next four years, making him an even better addition than Peralta. But, that’s based on a lot of conjecture and Alderson is being paid to be the adult in the room.

Other names being mentioned as potential big free agent acquisitions produced the following fWAR over the past four years:

Nelson Cruz – 8.8
Stephen Drew – 9.5
Jacoby Ellsbury – 16.1
Curtis Granderson – 13.9

None of these players are the ideal person to add to fill the Hernandez role. Cruz is in complete freefall, Drew comes with draft pick compensation, Ellsbury has big injury risk and Granderson has one outlier year propping up his overall numbers. It’s no Jedi mind trick to say that these are not the droids we’re looking for.

We all want it to be 1984 and have it be the beginning of an extended stretch of 90-win seasons. Unfortunately, it seems more likely to be 1983, hopefully with a few more wins. Yet, it still seems like Alderson is on the right path and it’s not his fault that there’s not a Hernandez-type available to make a long-term contract worthwhile.

We should also recall that Cashen added Hernandez via trade. We’ve seen Alderson hit home runs when he’s dealt veterans for prospects. Let’s see if he can duplicate Cashen’s Hernandez move (and not his Foster, Jones, Kingman or Valentine ones) and knock one out of the park when he acquires a veteran for longer-term production.

It’s too soon to be this down on Alderson. It seems a mistake for burying him for not picking up a big bat when the ones available seem more likely to turn into Jason Bay than Hernandez. While we wait for the much-needed offensive star to become available, let’s look for good moves on the margins, a good draft and no albatross contracts.

When that key offensive piece becomes available – whether that’s Carlos Gonzalez, Giancarlo Stanton, Troy Tulowitzki or someone not even currently on our radar – we want Alderson to have the money to acquire him. What a waste it would be to have that money tied up in an anchor like Cruz, instead.

Today is Thanksgiving. There are an abundance of things for me to be thankful for this season. And on that list are the people who come to Mets360 and read our stuff. It has been a terrific thing to be part of this site and extremely gratifying to see it enjoy tremendous growth. Hopefully we have brought you some joy in return, too. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone and may you enjoy a turkey-induced coma sometime today. And when you wake up, hang in there and don’t be such a misery.