This offseason is flying along and the Mets have made one move to fill three immediate needs on their roster. The Chris Young signing, much debated, will reportedly fill one of those slots as Sandy Alderson has stated that Young will receive 600 or more plate appearances as a starting corner outfielder or occasional center fielder. That is a full-time player. He also cost 7.25 million, which means that Alderson’s reported maximum 30 million dollar budget has been decreased by one-fourth.
Shortstop has become a bit of a quandary as the market has either dried up via free agency (Jhonny Peralta has been signed and Stephen Drew is beyond the Mets budget, leaving Clint Barmes and Rafael Furcal as the only other options on the market, if you consider those guys options) or the trade market is reportedly too high to make a deal. With next year’s free agent market full of shortstops, it might be that the Mets will stand pat with Ruben Tejada (which gives a reason for the mystery of why Omar Quintanilla still has a 40 man roster spot), knowing that Wilfredo Tovar will be at AAA and that if they need to upgrade, the market will be rich with shortstops next year.
That leaves the outfield. Rumors are abounding that Alderson is working on three way trades. That will be believed when one gets triggered. The much more likely way an outfielder will be acquired is via free agency or a more simple trade, which leads to Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz and Andre Ethier.
So, let’s compare these three players to see which one fits best on the Mets.
Fielding:
Cruz is rated as a plus fielder over the last three years on Baseball-Reference, while rated a negative fielder over that same time period on FanGraphs. Since the advanced metrics don’t agree on Cruz’s ability, it falls to the baseline statistics (fielding percentage and range) and the good old fashioned eye test in order for us to pass judgment. Over the last three years, Cruz has had an approximately league average fielding percentage as a right fielder and below average range. The eye test shows a poor fielder with a strong arm. Even more concerning than all of this is that Cruz used to be better in the field, according to both advanced metrics and the baseline statistics. Over the past three years, Cruz’s ability in the outfield has deteriorated. Cruz is currently 33 and will turn 34 during the 2014 season. It’s difficult to believe that he will be able to play adequate outfield defense over the next three to four years, the rumored length of a deal he would sign.
Ethier is rated as an average to just above average fielder by both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. His fielding numbers this year weren’t as good, but that’s because Ethier was forced to play out of position in center field a position he won’t play with the Mets. As a right fielder, Ethier’s fielding percentage has rated above average and his range has been about average. Ethier’s arm is not plus, but it is accurate, as noted by the fact that he averages about 9 outfield assists over a full season. Ethier has also shown improvement as a fielder over the past three years, so it would be appropriate to expect at least league average defense for at least the first three to four years of his remaining contract.
Granderson has rated as a below average fielder over the past three years on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, but those numbers are mostly for Granderson as a center fielder. His baseline statistics also reflect this, as it shows Granderson as having well above average fielding percentages and well below average range in center field. However, in an extremely short stint in right and left field this past season (185 and 2/3rds innings), Granderson showed to be a plus fielder in all categories. Granderson used to be a gold glove caliber center fielder, but is clearly not that now. However, as Carlos Beltran showed, a gold glove center fielder can transition fairly well to a corner outfield spot. It should be noted though that some outfielders find this transition difficult, which could result in Granderson having a down year as he makes the adjustment.
Judgement:Ethier
Although Granderson might end up being a better fielder, that remains a large question mark. Granderson will be 33 at the start of the season, Ethier 32. Since it might take a year for Granderson to adjust, there’s a chance that whatever plus Granderson might bring as a fielder might be lost in that adjustment year. Cruz doesn’t even make this part of the conversation as his fielding ability is questionable.
Batting left or right:
This is an important distinction for the Mets. The Mets have two left handed hitters who are anticipated to be a part of the team next year (Daniel Murphy, if he’s not traded and Lucas Duda, as Ike Davis appears to be headed out of town). Of those two, only Murphy is a reliable hitter. Duda has power, but has yet to show consistency as a hitter in any capacity. That makes acquiring a left-handed bat all the more important. Obviously left-handed power is also extremely important as the lineup, with the possible exception of Duda, is totally lacking in that department.
Judgement:Granderson
Ethier is a quality bat, but he doesn’t have Granderson’s power from the left side. Cruz bats right handed, which would lump him in with David Wright, Chris Young and, potentially, Travis d’Arnaud, as right handed power bats, giving the Mets lineup very little variety.
Age and Contract:
All three of these players are over 30 and will carry substantial contracts into their mid to late thirties. Cruz is the oldest, as he will turn 34 during the 2014 season, followed by Granderson (33) and Ethier (32). All three will have approximately the same contract length (3 to 4 years for Cruz and Granderson, 4 to 5 for Ethier). Cruz an d Granderson will probably cost more contract wise as they will most definitely make approximately 15 million plus per season. Although Ethier’s contract is currently larger (average annual salary of 17.25 million per season over the next 4 years with an option vesting year in 2018 of 17.5 million), any acquisition of Ethier will also include the Dodgers paying some part of his contract. Also, his vesting option year contains a 2.5 million dollar buy out, meaning that the Mets don’t have to retain him for 2018, his age 36 season. If the Dodgers pick up 15 million of Ethier’s contract, his average annual salary drops to 13.5 million per season through his age 35 season.
Judgement: Ethier
As long as the Dodgers pick up some money, the Mets would be paying Ethier less through the end of his prime (age 35), whereas they would be paying both Granderson or Cruz more money through, at best, their age 36 or 37 seasons (Granderson) or age 37 or 38 seasons (Cruz), making it much more likely that they get maximum production out of Ethier than Granderson or Cruz.
Power:
Granderson and Cruz both have plus power.
Granderson, over his past 340 hits, has hit 91 home runs and amassed ISO’s of 290 in 2011, 260 in 2012 and 178 in 2013 (an injury plagued season). The argument that Granderson’s power is Yankee stadium based only is also inaccurate. Granderson has hit 43 of those 91 home runs on the road. In addition, of his 702 hits as a Tiger, Granderson hit 102 home runs in a notoriously bad power hitting ballpark, topping out at 30 home runs in 2009, his final season as a Tiger. It is reasonable to expect that Granderson would hit somewhere between 27 and 33 home runs as a Met, at least in his first few seasons.
Cruz, over his past 387 hits, has hit 80 home runs and amassed ISO’s of 246 in 2011, 200 in 2012 and 240 in 2013. Cruz has always played in a strong hitters ballpark in Arlington, resulting in, over the course of his career, nearly 22% of his hits at home going for home runs and approximately 19% of his hits going for home runs on the road. Even with this minor discrepancy, a similar 27 to 33 home run season could be expected out of Cruz, at least over the first few years of his contract.
Ethier has average power. Ethier only hit 12 home runs in 2013, but his spray chart shows that he probably would have hit at least 3 more home runs playing in Citifield. Ethier is also a doubles machine, stroking 35 plus doubles a year over a 162 game average. Ethier would probably project to be an 18 to 22 home run hitter in Citifield, but that could increase as Ethier was actually a much more productive power hitter over the course of his career in Dodger stadium, where approximately 15% of his hits were home runs, as opposed to about 9% on the road. This bodes well for Ethier to show some increased power in a tough hitters park like Citifield, which, although hard on hitters, isn’t as difficult as Dodger stadium.
Judgment: Granderson
This is a close one with Cruz, but Granderson gets the nod due to his age, because he bats left-handed and because he’s played in a similarly difficult park and shown success. The Mets need left-handed power, which Granderson can provide.
Overall hit tool
Cruz is a power hitter who strikes out a lot. That’s basically his modus operandi. Cruz used to show some speed, but that has diminished over his last few years. Cruz has never walked much either and has only had one legitimate double’s season, 2012, when he smashed 45 doubles. Outside of that year, Cruz has never hit more than 31, and for the most part has been in the 20’s. Cruz also doesn’t have pronounced splits against righties or lefties, which is a bonus, but his numbers were also amassed in a good hitters park, which has to be a concern, considering his age and how power diminishes as you get older (unless your Marlon Byrd).
Granderson has more variety to his game than Cruz. Granderson strikes out more than Cruz, but balances that with solid walk rates and speed. Granderson has had multiple 10 plus triples seasons, which is probably why his double’s total’s have never been terribly high. Granderson has never hit for average due to his high amount of strike outs, but also doesn’t have much of a split differential, as he’s equally bad average wise against righties and lefties.
Ethier is the best average hitter and OBP player amongst the three. Ethier doesn’t have speed and doesn’t have the power that Cruz or Granderson have, but he hits doubles and has historically hit very well with runners in scoring position. Ethier has also played his entire career in a pitchers park, where he has performed well throughout his career (with the notable exception of 2013). The two questions with Ethier are: Does 2013 represent a serious regression or was it just an anomaly in what has amounted to a solid career with the bat and can he hit lefties well enough to play every day?
Judgement: Ethier
This one is also close with Granderson, but Ethier strike’s out less and, although he won’t hit for as much power, will make up for it with double’s and base hits. There’s just too much to fear with Cruz related to his age. Age saps power and if Cruz loses his power, he loses all of his value.
Overall Judgement: Ethier
That probably won’t be a popular pick, but he makes the most sense. He’s the best hitter by a slim margin, is the youngest, is a known commodity in the outfield and will have the best contract. He’s a lefty bat that could hit in front of or behind Wright. He might only hit 20 home runs, but that would still be an improvement over what the Mets had last year, when you add in Chris Young in the opposite corner outfield spot. Cruz might be another Jason Bay, a player who comes here with power pedigree, only to have age knock him down. Granderson wouldn’t be a total disaster, but his contract size and age make him more likely to be less productive over the time he’d be here than Ethier.
So, Mr. Alderson, it’s time. Go get Ethier. He probably won’t cost much in a deal as the Dodgers need to move an outfielder and he fits the Mets needs. It’s time to get it done.
I’ll take Grandy, who has a NY fan base that may put people in seats, and looking his spray chart over can take the most advantage of rage RF fence down the line
Granderson but any seems very unlikely. There doesn’t seem to be any money. I’m guessing they get a young guy who is somebody’s fourth outfielder or an older guy who has lost his job.
More likely somebody like Stubbs,,Snyder!Davis,Tabata,or Morse.
If we use an in-house option as SS, the corner OFer we add will most likely end up having be be our leadoff hitter. I don’t love either of the OFers mentioned here, but Granderson would make the most sense for us. He can bat leadoff, handle NY, and wouldn’t cost us any existing prospects.
I’d opt for Grandy too. He’s got the power we need to protect Wright, and would handle right field just fine. Expensive, but probably worth it.
I don’t think we’ll get 20 HR’s from Ethier. He is a quality hitter, good glove, younger, and with the Dodgers likely adding a fair amount of cash to move him, it’s a close call and I would not be at all opposed to Sandy dealing for him.
I’m ready to move on from Cruz. Looking at his away splits, he doesn’t seem to hit very well aeway from the hitter friendly confines of Rangers Ballpark. I hadn’t thought of him as another Jason Bay, but that is exactly what he could turn into.
I don’t see any of them being signed by the Mets. As you say Cruz is declining defensively over the past several years. Gee I wonder if the extensive use of PED’s has anything to do with that? Having to play 81 home games in Citifield would require a center fielder to make up the ground Cruz wont cover. Pass
Is Andre Ethier’s contract a burden on the Dodgers? If so the Mets can wait until the Dodgers eat a substantial portion of it. Otherwise why help to bail them out? Ethier is an upgrade yes but at what price? Pass
Granderson has the best upside and can hit home runs anywhere. You could bat him clean up and put David Wright 3rd. Yes he strikes out a lot. But the Mets would finally have a legitimate bat behind Wright. The only problem is I don’t see the team willing to part with 60 million for 4 years. Pass reluctantly
The Mets will probably make a trade for another corner outfielder and shy awawy from any commitments of more than 2 years.
I’d rather try to pull Kemp away than Ethier if we’re making a deal with LA. Granderson has power and good COF defense, but his average is low. Sandy needs to sign/trade for a high OBP upgrade if they’re bringing on a high-strikeout guy.
Mike – I’d rather Kemp too, but I’m very concerned about the long term effects of his lnjury. If there is a way to check him out medically, I might push for him as long as the Dodgers kicked in a fair proportion of his contract. That $128 million he is owed over the next 6 years is really onerous and the risk that it becomes an albatross is high. Ethier would be much simpler and less risky. The Dodgers prefer to move him and I understand that they would be willing to include between 33% and 50% of what he is owed. At that price, if he gave us .285/20/85 he’d be a bargain.
BTW, you do realize that, despite Granderson’s “low” batting average, he is a career .340 OBP. Tha’s not too shabby. Actually, if Granderson could give us 30 HRs and a .340 OBP in the middle of the lineup, I’d accept his .250-.260 avg.
I have been saying Kemp also since the season ended. Would have been nice to have Kemp- Lagares and Granderson left to right. Trade Duda and keep Ike and lower him in batting order to 6th or 7th.
you’ve got the right formula, but the timing is too late. With Young in the fold, it’s pretty certain that we will only get one more corner OF, and we can only hope that it is Kemp or Granderson. (or Ethier, giving away less) Then we should be able to trade Duda (with maybe another prospect) for Yunel Escobar of the Rays.
Kemp is intriguing. He’s got a massive contract massive potential and a huge injury risk.
Kemp just had microfracture surgery on his ankle. That kind of injury could adversely effect the rest of his career.
Or not. I would be fine with taking a risk on Kemp, but the Mets won’t due to contract and risk.
Granderson over Ethier because he his only money not players.
If Granderson is 4/60 and Ethier is 4/48 but you have to include a Montero then Montero would have to be below $12M in value for the next 6 years. We all see that even mediocre pitchers are worth much more than that.
Granderson at 4/60 is uncomfortable but that appears to be his market but before I signed Granderson, I would offer Choo the Pence deal with a McCann like option year to make it look like a $100M deal..At least Sandy would go down swinging and hey, you never know if you don’t ask.
I would also be moving Davis for Joyce (Rays) or Aoki (Brewers) before his market dries up. Of course these deasl will involve more players. Patience is a virtue, overpaying is a fault but the Mets may be painting themselves into a corner. We should know by the end of the winter meetings.
SS looks bleak as it is a very expensive market via FA and trade.
Just because several teams made inquiries about Davis doesn’t mean there is a market for him. You can’t trade him for the sake of a trade Metsense. You say patience on one hand and then say something must be done before the market dries up. Can’t have it both ways.
Ike could bring back a #4 OFer type who could platoon or might develop into a full time starter.
Initially, I wanted Cruz, strictly from a power standpoint. But he’s not a great defender, and there’s always the danger of PED’s coming back to haunt you.
I never wanted Eithier. Besides the money, you have to trade away talent to get him, he doesn’t posess too much power, and he’s kind of generic…
What I like about Granderson is that he has power, good OBP, smart ballplayer, stand up guy, and maybe most importantly, he’s NY tested. We have no idea how Cruz or Eithier would handle the NY environment. Granderson thrived in it, and will do well here.
The Mets are loaded with 4th outfielders already.
For the Mets?
Power: At premium
Defense (OF): Less (in light of current options)
Speed: Less
OBP: Higher
Contract: Highest
I question whether Dodgers will be giving ANY contract relief for Ethier. I’m probably going signing Granderson, and reserving talent as needed to acquire the SS in a trade.
It’s a helluva risk you’re taking on Kemp with his micro surgery on his ankle. No guarantee the player you’re getting is the player you saw before. The Dodgers are in a bind with 4 starting outfielders and a young prospect to add. I am wondering if the Dodgers are more concerned about Kemp’s health and his ability to return to form by spring training. If they feel he isn’t going to be ready why would trade Ethier?
I think the Ethier Kemp thing comes down to who can be traded. The Dodgers need to move an outfielder. Puig is going nowhere and Crawford can’t be moved. Reports say the Dodgers would rather keep Kemp, but that could be simply a lack of a decent offer. If Kemp didn’t have the ankle thing, there’s no way he’d be traded but on the flipside, due to the injury and his contract he won’t generate much of a return, hence an Ethier trade.
Also, Ethier has played his whole career in LA. He’ll be able to handle NY.
Granderson has gotten a lot of support. I’d be ok with that signing, I just have a gut feeling that whoever signs him to a four year deal will regret 1 or possibly 2 years of that deal.
I consider deals for contracts like Ethier, Crawford, Kemp, Fielder and the like something along the lines of buying a car used, as opposed to buying one new.
I’d just prefer getting a bad contract, discounted for underperformance, than face the possibility of giving one out … all day long. And the track record of bad, long contracts goes out as far as the eye can see.
Sign Granderson. Don’t trade away any young players, there are still too many holes to fill before we make a run.
I definitely would take Granderson. He can succeed in NY, has local cred and is a true power bat. His base running speed is also a major upgrade. I would not trust Ethier in a big spot. It would cost more to get Ethier. The talent you lose would end up being a higher cost than the money spent on Granderson.
the the best scenario for now would be to offer Granderson a 3 year deal with a team option for a 4th. If it isn’t acceptable to the Granderson camp then move on. I still say offer Choo the same type of contract McCann received from the Yankees. He’ll earn his contract and you’re signing a player not only based on past performance but what he should be able to provide consistently for the next 3-4 years..
If I had a vote it would be Granderson. He’s proved he can play in NY and has the power to hit it out of Citi. Plus he’s a good club house presence.
Unfortunately we can all be in favor but the bottom line is will the Mets be the team to offer the most money? It feels like we’ve been here before when Omar Minaya had to over pay Pedro Martinez to sign here. I don’t think SA will do the same. the Mets will make a fair offer but will be outbid by another team who will use part of their new television money to sign CG.