Taking stock: The Mets’ 2014 Outfield

Note: This is a continuing short series comparing (at a high level) where the Mets roster stood last year at this time and where it stands heading into Spring Training 2014.

We’re quickly approaching the reporting date for pitchers and catchers and the start of baseball for 2014. The off-season may not have gone as well for the Mets as some would have liked. It also may have gone better than some would have expected. That’s baseball, for you. Although the off-season is not over and the Mets will continue to make small additions to the roster, the big moves are likely in the rear-view at this point. So where does the team stand as compared to this time last year?

This week we discuss the outfield.

There’s been much discussion about the Mets outfield situation the last two seasons. There’s good reason for that, as entering the 2013 season it was in absolute shambles. Countless articles analyzed just how bad the outfield situation was at the time, reaching a hyperbolic apex with an article claiming that the Mets’ outfield could be the worst unit in professional sports history. Heck, even Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson got in on the joke.

Behind all of the negative talk was the truth that the Mets’ outfield really was a significant weakness on the roster. The team entered Spring Training 2013 with the following players competing for playing time in the outfield: Lucas Duda, Mike Baxter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jordany Valdespin, the recently acquired Collin Cowgill, and the recently signed Marlon Byrd. Valdespin and Nieuwenhuis were unproven, Cowgill and Baxter had never shown they could be more than reserves, Duda was once again forced into a position in which he couldn’t possibly succeed, and Byrd was a lottery ticket signed as a favor. There really was nothing to be excited about.

So how did the 2013 outfield perform? Well, that depends on how you look at it. It certainly wasn’t the worst outfield of all time. It wasn’t even the worst in the league. It wasn’t good, though, and a few fortunate breaks kept it from being in the basement. The outfield had a collective fWAR of 7.0, which placed them at 20th in the league. Their .685 OPS landed them at 28th in the league, ahead of only the Astros and Twins.

In right field, the Mets were the unexpected benefactor of a Byrd resurgence that started almost immediately in Spring Training. It was quite the pleasant surprise when there was really no reason to even expect him to break camp with the team. In fact, he performed so well the team was able to flip him to the Pirates for two solid prospects. Baxter, Andrew Brown, and Matt den Dekker split time in right field after the trade to close out the season with some uninspired play.

Duda was a disaster in left field, as pretty much anyone could have predicted (UZR/150 of -29.6). This is less of a knock on Duda and more a knock on the Mets’ insistence on forcing him out there again after it was clear he was not outfield material. After spending some time on the disabled list and being optioned to Las Vegas for a bit, he returned and split time between left field and first base. The Mets acquired Eric Young, Jr. in June and he got the bulk of playing time in left field to close out the year.

Center field was a game of musical chairs during the first half of the 2013 season. By mid-June the team had started six different players there, including an inexplicable amount of playing time for Rick Ankiel. The Mets again benefited from an unexpected source, this time in the form of Juan Lagares and his elite defense. Almost all of his value came from defense, actually. Lagares earned the starting job in center field during the second half, though den Dekker received some playing time there to close out the season.

Playing devil’s advocate here, but the outfield performance is very different if you were to remove the unexpected contributions from players who were not on the squad to start the season or were essentially lottery tickets. If you remove Byrd’s 3.5 fWAR, Lagares’ 2.9 fWAR, and Young, Jr.’s 1.7 fWAR, you now have a bottom five outfield that combined for a -1.1 fWAR.

The Mets have made more of an effort to address the outfield situation going into 2014. They signed what is another reclamation project in Chris Young, though there is some perceived upside in this move. It looks as though the right field job is his to lose going into Spring Training. The Mets’ biggest signing of the off-season, Curtis Granderson, is an immediate upgrade in left field. It is presumed that Lagares will return as the everyday center fielder, though there are now several players on the roster who can handle the position who may be able to provide more offensive value. It remains to be seen how Terry Collins decides to align these players, but he absolutely has much more to work with than he did at this time last year.

So what can we expect? Byrd is gone, and that is actually quite a huge hit to their projected production. This will be offset by the additions of Granderson and Young, as well as full seasons of Lagares and Young, Jr. How much it is offset remains to be seen. Beyond what is in place now, the team may also see some contribution from some of the outfield prospects they have at the higher levels of the system. There is also some addition by subtraction. Duda will no longer provide negative value in the outfield. There should also be less uncertainty and many fewer at bats given to the likes of Cowgill and Ankiel.

The outlook for the 2014 outfield is much, much brighter than it was going into the 2013 season. A Granderson/Lagares/Young outfield looks much better on paper than the Duda/Cowgill/Byrd outfield did last season. Of course, you never know how it will all play out. That’s why they play the games.