Next up in our projection series is Bartolo Colon. It would have been great if the Mets had signed him prior to the 2012 season and now we have to hope that this is a case of better late than never. Colon was fantastic last year and if he can accomplish over the next two seasons what he did in 2013 alone, this signing will be a good one.
Since the end of World War II, Colon’s 5.1 bWAR is the fourth-best mark among pitchers in their age 40 season, as he slots in between 1987 Nolan Ryan (5.4 bWAR) and 1985 Tom Seaver (5.0 bWAR). Ryan pitched until he was 46 but Seaver lasted only one more year in the majors. Of course, age 40 Colon had little resemblance to Ryan or Seaver, who remained power pitchers until the end.
We don’t have velocity readings for Colon’s first five years in the majors, but in 2002 he averaged 93.2 mph with his fastball. Last year he was below 90. The current version of Colon survives thanks to pinpoint control and stinginess with his homers allowed. Last year he added the eighth-best LOB% in the majors, as he stranded 80% of the runners who reached base against him.
So, will a switch to the league without the DH allow Colon to maintain most of his great numbers from a season ago? Or will regression and age catch up to him in 2014? Here’s what our writers think:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | LOB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 160.0 | 3.75 | 125 | 35 | 15 | 3.51 | 73.0 |
| Ferguson | 195.0 | 3.75 | 115 | 25 | 17 | 3.54 | 73.0 |
| Flattery | 156.0 | 3.75 | 96 | 43 | 13 | 3.88 | 70.0 |
| Joura | 181.0 | 2.78 | 117 | 28 | 13 | 3.30 | 78.0 |
| Koehler | 165.0 | 3.50 | 105 | 30 | 16 | 3.73 | 65.0 |
| Kolton | 127.2 | 2.89 | 106 | 36 | 12 | 3.61 | 76.8 |
| McCarthy | 181.0 | 3.49 | 112 | 34 | 12 | 3.39 | 72.5 |
| O’Malley | 166.0 | 3.65 | 105 | 35 | 16 | 3.82 | 72.5 |
| Rogan | 172.0 | 3.65 | 115 | 33 | 16 | 3.65 | 73.0 |
| Schubert | 179.2 | 3.45 | 115 | 30 | 20 | 3.87 | 74.6 |
| Stack | 145.0 | 3.77 | 99 | 18 | 12 | 3.28 | 73.0 |
| Vasile | 180.0 | 3.95 | 110 | 30 | 18 | 3.78 | 75.2 |
| Walendin | 151.0 | 3.33 | 91 | 26 | 16 | 3.89 | 75.0 |
As you might expect, our individual numbers are all over the map. Dan Kolton projects the fewest innings but has the second-best ERA, so it’s difficult to call his projection pessimistic. Only two writers (Joura, Kolton) predict Colon to once again post an ERA below 3.00 but no one has him blowing up, either. Essentially, we expect him to suffer a decline from 2013 but nothing that would cause a fellow to consider retirement.
Here’s what the group as a whole projects for Colon in 2014:
Interestingly, our group projection has his ERA and FIP within a few points of each other, something that hasn’t happened with Colon since 2004, when he had a 5.01 ERA and a 4.97 FIP. The last two years he outperformed his FIP by a considerable amount.
After the table and graphic were compiled, David Groveman shared his thoughts on Colon. He expects: 153.2 IP, 4.10 ERA, 86 Ks, 44 BBs, 15 HR, 65 LOB%.
Here’s our forecast along with what the other projection systems available on FanGraphs predict for Colon this year:
| System | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | LOB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 166.0 | 3.65 | 109 | 31 | 15 | 3.62 | 73.0 |
| Steamer | 182.0 | 3.79 | 132 | 34 | 19 | 3.54 | 70.2 |
| Oliver | 175.0 | 3.45 | 110 | 32 | 18 | 3.71 | 74.9 |
| ZiPS | 147.2 | 3.60 | 97 | 24 | 14 | 3.54 |
There was no forecast by ZiPS for LOB%.
Somewhat encouragingly, our projection is not the most optimistic one for Colon. All four systems were fairly close, with the biggest difference coming in the IP expectations for ZiPS (147.2) and Steamer (182). The Steamer prediction calls for a 2.2 fWAR. Recall that fWAR uses FIP in its calculations, so it was not nearly as excited about Colon’s 2013 as Baseball-Reference and bWAR. Colon had a 3.23 FIP last year and a 3.9 fWAR.
Check back Thursday for our next entry in the projection series.
Well, we’re right in the neighborhood with the experts. If we’re wrong, so are they. Well played.
I will make the note that I expect him to be traded at the deadline. Those numbers were for his whole season, and not just with the Mets.
I think that Colon is being sold short. He will be facing the pitcher now, so expect strikeout percentage to rise. Colon threw 96 when he first came up with the Indians, I remember because I drafted him on my fantasy team. The surgery he had in Germany allows him to get back up to the high nineties and he conserves himself by looking for weak contact over the strikeout. But, as he throws 97, the K’s should come. I am more scared with his health and how he’s going to handle the bat. Will he pull a hammy running to first? How many times will he get thrown out by an outfielder at first? Will it be off the left field wall?
My projections: 197 innings, 180 hits, 3.20 ERA, 16 HR allowed, 165 K’s, 35 BB.
I thought your velocity numbers sounded high so I went ahead and checked. But judging just by his last game of the year, you were right on. In his last start of 2013, he threw 29 pitches that registered 95 or more and he topped out at 96.4 in this game. He threw 97 pitches in this game and his last one was 95.6 mph.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/tabdel_expanded.php?pitchSel=112526&game=gid_2013_09_27_oakmlb_seamlb_1/&s_type=&h_size=700&v_size=500
The signing of soon to be 41 YOA Colon, who in 2013 was a #1 starter with a 3.23 FIP (14), 2.65 ERA (6), 1.17 WHIP(23). In his career he has a 4.10 FIP (56) 3.94 ERA (47), 1.31 WHIP (46). He is an attempt to replace Harvey. If Colon repeats his 2013 season, it won’t be as good as Harvey. This is no fault of Colon’s. He just was the best affordable option at the time to replace Harvey. I feel reasonable expectations, based on his age, are that he will pitch near his career numbers which would make him a #4 starter. I am not bullish on Colon but I am definitely in the minority. ( Note that the numbers in parenthesis are his ranking if he pitched last year in the NL. Rankings are based on 70 IP. total of 76 starting pitchers)
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