Next up in our projection review series, let‘s look back at the surprisingly fine season turned in by Bartolo Colon.
When Colon signed on in the off-season, he was counted on to replace a good chunk of the pitching production that was lost when Matt Harvey had to have his elbow surgically repaired. After a year in which Colon turned in Cy Young Award-worthy numbers in Oakland – he finished sixth in the voting – no Met fan was convinced he could repeat it. We only hoped he could hold his own and turn in a full season. We only hoped he could be an innings-eater, if you’ll pardon a facile joke.
Our hopes were rewarded.
Here’s what our best guess was:
IP – 166
ERA – 3.65
K – 109
BB – 31
HR – 15
FIP – 3.62
LOB % – 73
Here’s how Colon actually did with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
IP – 202.33
Best – Ferguson (195)
Worst – Kolton (127.67)
ERA – 4.09
Best – Vasile (3.95)
Worst – Joura (2.78)
K – 151
Best – Albanesius (125)
Worst – Walendin (91)
BB – 30
Best – Koehler, Schubert, Vasile (30) !
Worst – Flattery (43)
HR – 22
Best – Schubert (20)
Worst – Kolton, McCarthy, Stack (12)
FIP – 3.57
Best – Ferguson (3.54)
Worst – Walendin (3.89)
LOB % – 70
Best – Flattery (70) !
Worst – Joura (78)
Bartolo Colon was an extremely valuable pitcher for the 2014 Mets. The fact that there are a lot of “career-best-since-2005” descriptions of his stats proves that value: 2005 was his best year as a major-leaguer. None of us figured he’d break the 200 inning barrier, even though his ERA ended up a little higher than we would have liked. Whether he was worth the two-year, $20 million free agent deal he received is open to debate, but there is no arguing the fact that he was the most consistent, steadiest arm among an impressive set of hurlers. That’s not even mentioning the entertainment value he provided as a batter – I hesitate to use the word “hitter.” Colon just had the knack for getting the Mets a win just when they needed it, and when he failed, he failed big. Looking ahead, he will provide value to the Mets, whether actually on the hill or as a big-trade piece.
We fans are the better off for having him.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.
Colon pitched in 2014 pretty much like I thought he would. He was a #4 starter and pitched like one. He did give the Mets innings but a 0.5 bWAR indicates he didn’t earn his $9m salary. He will now earn $11m. I was never comfortable with the signing.
“but there is no arguing the fact that he was the most consistent, steadiest arm among an impressive set of hurlers.”
I thought deGrom was steadier and more consistent. Colon didn’t get to the 6th inning in 5 of 31 starts vs deGrom’s 2 of 22.
” surprisingly fine season turned in by Bartolo Colon”
Sorry, this made me laugh so hard.
Bartolo Colon sucked as a Met. He posted a 4.09 ERA in one of the most friendly pitchers parks in the game.
The only value he provided were consistent innings, something that the Mets really didn’t need as he took away innings from the likes of Montero and Thor.
He certainly wasn’t worth the contract on a 1 year deal, and the 2nd year made it into one of the worst Met signings in recent history. And our almighty GM, who everyone who was so confident was able to flip this guy, found out the hard way the Colon was filled with lard instead of gold.
A good argument can be made that Colon was the second best starter when you look at the whole season. Niese and Gee missed time and Wheeler had problems going deep in games. Dice K and Mejia couldn’t cut it as starters. Thor obviously wasn’t ready for NY and the jury is still out on Montero’s role.
Colon ate innings and lasted long enough in games to pick up 15 wins. He struck out 5 for every walk. Based on FA market prices he was a reasonable acquisition for 2014. The fact that it took a two year commitment to land him may be lamentable but that’s the marketplace at work.
“Name”— 31 Starts- 22 of them with 6 or more innings pitched. 21 starts 3 earned runs or less. 23 starts- 4 ER or less. Colon took the Loss in 6 games where he allowed 3 runs or less. In today’s MLB, this is pretty darned good performance, and 200 innings eaten is a really important chunk. If you erased Colon’s name and age, and put those numbers out to a “pool” of GM’s, 90% would “take that guy and those numbers and run with it” at $9mil for the mid-back end of the pitching rotation.
I’ll humor you and pretend those are impressive stats you threw out (they’re not).
If,as you claim, “take that guy and those numbers and run with it” at $9mil for the mid-back end of the pitching rotation.”, why was there zero interest for him at the trading deadline?
I’ll answer that for you. Because you can get much better value elsewhere.
You know what players were available last season at a similar price point?
For 4 million more (plus an extra year)-Phil Huges
For 3.5 million more-Bronson Arroyo
For 3 million more-Tim Hudson
For 2 million more-Scott Kazmir
That’s 3/4 who performed much better than Colon.
And here were guys who signed 1 year deals
Dan Haren-10 mil
Josh Johnson-8 mil
Jason Hammel-6 mil
Ryan Vogelsong-5 mil
Edison Volquez-5 mil
It was a crappy signing then, and it’s still a crappy signing.
“Name” You’d have preferred Bronson Aroyo, who pitched 86 innings in 2014 and sustained an injury and Josh Johnson, who pitched 13 innings and sustained an injury????— both were lost for the season… Thank you for making my point. Yeah- GM’s would line up and say *yes* to Colon’s numbers at Colon’s price point… ****think****, “name”
Did you not read what i wrote?
From the first group i said 3/4 performed better than Colon. Any guy with common sense would realize that the one who didn’t perform better was Arroyo.
And you use the same logic for the second one.
If you were so blind not to see my point. I named 9 other guys who were FA last season, and 7 of them either performed much better than Colon or were much cheaper than him. Seven out of 9. I repeat, again, 7 out of 9 were better or (better and cheaper) than Colon.
No, GMs are *not* lining up for Colon, never were, never will be.
If you are one of those who think that Colon had a fine season, you were probably also content with 79 wins this season.
Name, I followed your reasoning until your last paragraph.
Thinking Colon had a fine season doesn’t necessarily relate to be satisfied with 79 wins. The below .500 record had greater causes in the below par season of David Wright, the lack of consistent production from Curtis Granderson, the poor first half for TDA, the early reliance on older, practically useless bullpen arms, the failure to bring in a decent SS, the presence of Chris Young in the lineupfor too long…..I could go on.
Having Colon as an every fifth day starter was much more of a positive than any of the above. It doesn’t equate with being satisfied with a losing record.
I love your calm, well-thought responses, Norme. It gives me hope in humanity.
Thank you. Keep up your good work.
Hudson Simply would not have signed with the Mets….any need to discuss that? As for any of the pitchers for X million more….. especially hughs at 4 million more and an extra year—Alderson wouldn’t sign those guys.
I didn’t agree with the signing…more to the point, the state of the team and how it’s being run dictate some moves that are “less” than I’d like.
Free agent Pitchers who provide 200 innings of competitive ball in the mid/back of rotation are priced as Colon is. I don’t see that or the quality of his work as debateable. Bringing him to last year’s team???? I can only explain that they actually thought they’d compete with the crap they rolled out at the beginning of the season!!!!!… why else would you bring Colon here?….
…and that makes me question the quality of the Baseball operation.
The 10 million dollar GM TRoika…I’d rather have a left fielder!!!!
Name- I gave my opinion/assessment of Colon’s performance, **not** a defense of the Mets picking Colon up in the offseason. Those are two different issues. I said if you **erased** the name and age, most GM’s would view the **mystery-man* stats and say, “I’ll take that production at that price.” Alas, you’re too busy flailing, bloviating, and naming names -Arroyo, & Josh Johnson- which undermine your own thesis, in addition to naming other pitchers which defend my own>>>> Colon’s performance was good value for the price.