Prior to the start of the 2014 season the perspective on Jonathon Niese was one of low expectations for many. This was partly due to the fact that Niese had some injury concerns in 2013 and had shown some regression statistically after having a breakthrough season in 2012. In 2013, Niese’s strikeout rate had decreased, his ERA and WHIP increased and his strike out to walk ratio decreased. Some were wondering if Niese was really a solid number two or three starter, as he seemed to be in 2012, or really the four or five starter he appeared to be in 2010 and 2011.
It’s safe to assume that Niese proved his detractors wrong in 2014.
Let’s look at the numbers.
Our Projection was the following:
IP: 178.1
ERA: 3.50
K’s: 141
BB’s: 51
HR: 16
FIP: 3.64
BABIP: .325
Here’s how Niese actually did and which of our individual projections were most on point or off base.
IP: 187.2
Best: Flattery 188.2
Worst: Kolton 91.1
ERA: 3.40
Best: Schubert 3.42 and Walendin 3.38
Worst: Kolton 4.26
K’s: 138
Best: Stack 139
Worst: Kolton 96
BBs: 45
Best: O’Malley 45 (nailed it)
Worst: Flattery and Joura 66 (broke the Kolton streak)
HR: 17
Best: Albanesius, Joura and McCarthy 17 (wow, three hit it out of the park)
Worst: Vasile 23
FIP: 3.67
Best: Albanesius 3.67 (nailed it twice)
Worst: Kolton 4.30
BABIP: .309
Best: Schubert .310 (ridiculously close)
Worst: Kolton .382
Overall, our projection was pretty on point. The resident contrarian Dan Kolton aside, many of our writers either directly hit on Niese’s numbers or got extremely close. As a whole, we almost nailed his strike outs, home runs allowed and FIP, while getting very close (six percent or less differentiation) on his innings pitched, walks and ERA.
On top of that our projection overall was much closer to Niese’s actual numbers than the Steamer, Oliver and ZiPs projections. Our more favorable projection was actually much closer to the mark, although those projections hit closer on his BABIP than us and his total walks. The total walks though were probably lower than they would have been because Steamer, Oliver and ZiPs projected he would pitch much fewer innings.
It’s in all of this that we can see just how successful Niese was in 2014 as it was virtually the same season as he posted in 2012. He had the exact same ERA, a similar FIP and SO to BB ratio and almost exactly the same number of innings pitched over the same number of starts, 30. Basically, Niese proved that he is a quality, top three starter in this league. Let’s also not forget that he battled some injury concerns this year and was still as productive as he was.
The future for Niese is hard to project. Some of his injury concerns are legitimate, as it appears he does have a decent amount of wear and tear on his throwing arm, elbow and shoulder. Yet it appears that, as of now, none of those injuries are adversely affecting his performance. On top of that, he is a left handed starter, not common in major league baseball, and on an extremely team friendly contract that controls him, in effect, through his age 31 season in 2018, but also has the ability to opt out in 2017 or 2018 if the injuries catch up to him.
Because of the year he had, his contract and his left handedness, Niese is a very attractive commodity. Even with the injury concerns he had after 2013, Niese was still the topic of discussion and rumor throughout the offseason. That can be expected to continue this year, especially after he proved again that he is the pitcher he was in 2012. With the abundance of major league ready or close to major league ready pitching in their system, along with the return of Matt Harvey and an underwhelming free agent market, it could be very likely that Niese is traded. The Blue Jays have shown interest in the past and if talks over Niese lead to an offer involving Jose Bautista, the Mets would have to listen.
No matter what happens this offseason, Niese proved to the baseball world his value and where he stands among pitchers throughout the league. The Mets currently have a bulldog on the mound who gives them quality starts nearly every time out, always at least keeping them in the game if not dominating the opposition entirely. That is something to celebrate.
A major concern with Jon Niese is that there appears to have been a drop in the velocity on his heater. I don’t know if this is due to the aging process, a planned outcome of his pitching strategy or because of a lingering problem with his pitching arm. The latter could be a factor in his marketability.
Scott, I agree with you about his “bulldog” attitude on the mound. I think it is a quality one also sees in Dillon Gee.
“Nailed it twice” was my nickname in high school. Niese had a great year, and should be a vital part of the rotation next year.