They don’t call it a New York minute for nothing. We’re all impatient and we want to get things done so we can move on to the next thing we’ve got to do. So, while Sandy Alderson takes his time and acts like the adult in the room, here’s my armchair GM and the 25-man roster to take north on Opening Day.
C – Travis d’Arnaud
1B – Lucas Duda
2B – Daniel Murphy
3B – David Wright
SS – Chris Owings or Nick Franklin or Stephen Drew
OF – Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares, Chris Young
SP – Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Jonathon Niese, Zack Wheeler
RP – Vic Black, Joel Carreno, Josh Edgin, Jeurys Familia, Bobby Parnell, Carlos Torres, Jose Valverde
Bench – Andrew Brown, Anthony Recker, Josh Satin, Ruben Tejada, Eric Young
It makes no difference if Ike Davis opens the year in Triple-A or on another team. While the possibility exists that he’ll go all Chris Davis in 2014, the better odds are that he’ll be, you know, the Mets’ Davis from April and May 2012 or 2013. It’s time to move on.
Tejada is a favorite of mine. But it seems crazy to spend the entire offseason trashing the player and then expect him to be the starter on Opening Day. He doesn’t have to go like Davis, but he can’t be the Opening Day shortstop. If the Mets can’t pull a trade or sign Drew, then have Anthony Seratelli as the starter at the beginning of the year. Then if he flops, Tejada can come in and save the day.
While there are serious questions whether Lagares can hit enough to be a starter, anyone who watched him play the outfield last year and didn’t think he earned a starter’s job on Opening Day is crazy. Now, that’s not to say he’s gifted a job for the entire season. Rather this is a nod to his strong 2013 and giving him a serious opportunity – not to be confused with a Collin Cowgill opportunity – to swing the bat every day. He should be the starter for a minimum of six weeks, no questions asked.
While John Lannan and Daisuke Matsuzaka are both credible options to be an MLB starting pitcher, it’s time to move past the dumpster diving model of the past three years and give a shot to a guy with the potential to be very good in 2014, not to the guy who was once good three-plus years ago. Some people worry about Mejia being in the rotation on Opening Day and then having to be replaced once his innings cap – whatever that may be – is reached. This is so not a problem for this team. All they have to do is slide Rafael Montero or Noah Syndergaard or even Jacob deGrom into that position when that happens.
No matter who makes the Opening Day roster in the bullpen, there is going to be turnover. Here’s hoping that the Mets take their seven-best relievers and not their five best and two who throw with their left arm. We need to move away from the LOOGY model and anyone who wants Scott Rice throwing to RHB on a consistent basis clearly wasn’t watching last year. Valverde may well be toast but my hope is that having him around makes Familia more comfortable and if we have to suffer through two months of the seventh pitcher in the pen blowing up to get Familia and his 97 mph fastball on track, that’s a tradeoff worth making.
It’s a coin flip for me between Recker and Centeno and if the younger guy wins out, there’s nothing wrong with that. Picking Recker was a nod for how he got the short end of the stick last year, never getting the chance to play, even when John Buck turned back into a pumpkin after the first two weeks of the season.
Hopefully, Matt den Dekker figures into things before all is said and done but I’d like to see him getting every day ABs in Las Vegas than getting 3 PA per week in Queens. Wilmer Flores needs to be a starter, too. Seratelli will be on the roster at some point, as well, but if the Mets make a move to acquire a SS it will be later rather than sooner.
Opening Day lineup
Young
Duda
Wright
Granderson
Murphy
d’Arnaud
Owings
Lagares
Colon
Everyone focuses on the leadoff spot and sure, it would be nice to have a .370 OBP guy in that slot. But unless we’re willing to bat Wright there, we don’t have that on Opening Day. As a show of faith in our new free agent acquisition, Young should be given a shot to begin the year there. We need to stop hoping that Duda hits 50 HR and instead look to maximize what he does do. Murphy needs to be in a power spot in the lineup so he thinks about pulling the ball more often. The batting order should be considered a work in progress.
It’s not yet time for a prediction but that team should surpass 74 wins.
This won’t be popular but the other potentially high OBP guy in that lineup is Travis d’Arnaud.
I like Lagares and Mejia in there. I hope that’s the way it works out as well.
Given choice of those three shortstops, I take Owings. What are you projecting you have to give up for him? He’s not going to be cheap.
I think there’s little chance both Lannan and Dice-K miss the team. Lannan as a long/swing man and another lefty in the ‘pen seems likely. Daisuke has not looked close to a major league pitcher yet this year but it’s still very early.
Do you think they’d take Ike Davis?
In all seriousness, I’d make anyone besides Montero and Syndergaard available in the right deal.
Yea but if I’m Arizona I’m asking for Syndergaard and settling for Montero. Remember they gave up Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorius who is a lesser shortstop in my book. Young shortstops are pricey. One name that I keep returning to is Dillon Gee. 200 innings with an ERA under four is worth between 10 and 15 million annually in this market and you can have him for pennies on that dollar. Mets really like Dillon, though.
If they hold firm to Montero then you don’t trade with them.
If they accept Montero for Owings or Franklin you make the deal.
Hey Stephen, I thought I was the only one who felt that TDA should be given a shot at leading off. With the lack of a natural for the top spot the Mets have to be thinking outside the box ( sorry for the cliche).
Leading off, at this point in his career, would be counter-productive for Td’A. Let him get his feet on the groung batting lower in the lineup. If Lagares demonstrates that he can hit major league pitching decently this spring, he belongs in CF. That being the case, I am perfectly happy with Chris Young leading off.
Matsuzaka does not look like the pitcher who closed out 2013, and Lannan doesn’t loook much better. I know it is still early in ST, but I hope it does mean that Mejia gets the nod. He could be a big part of the Mets future if he can stay healthy. The problem is that I don’t think Alderson wants to lose either Daisuke or Lannan to their opt out clauses, so they just might make the 25 man by default. Matsuzaka at #5 and Lannan as the long man, even though he is not very adept at getting lefties out.
Regarding shortstop, I just don’t think the Mets match up that well with the D-Backs. The Yankees, on the other hand, have the surplus at catcher that Arizona is seeking, are still up in the air with their infield for 2014, and definitely need a successor to Jeter in 2015. Owings would be perfect for them. The Mets, on the other hand, have the bounty of young pitching that Seattle wants. They may ask for Syndergaard, although most Mariner fans are realistic in hoping for Montero. Alderson, however, is likely to hold the line on both of them, and I see deGrom going with a lower level prospect (perhaps a reliever or starter further away or even a young position prospect) for Franklin. If they insist on Montero, Sandy should reply with Brad Miller and let Franklin play short in Seattle.
I forgot the catchers name, I believe he played in the 80’s and 90’s he used to lead off for the Halo’s.
You’re thinking of Brian Dowling I believe. Also unusual for another characteristic, the capacity to hit long ball/not be fast and yet batting leadoff.
Several studies on the effects of batting Dowling first, not the least of which was my fav … Bill James.
Brian Downing actually. When I lived there he was a fan fave…we called him “the Hulk”. Pure hustle.
LOL. Brian Dowling actually was the Harvard QB that was one of the inspirations for Doonesbury, I do believe.
Bite your tongue! It was Yale!
!
Indeed. Bigger question … do people even read the comics anymore, in an age of Internet meme’s?
Brian, barring any unforeseen circumstances and the customary PED screening, I’m recommending you for the job of GM.
As far as I’m concerned, your duties could be assumed immediately.
Don’t like your bullpen. Only one lefty, and he’s one of the worst of the options, thus far. Cross off Edgin for Rice. Cross off Carreno for Lannan. Cross off Mejia for Matsuzaka. Look, I’m all for the Mejia/Synderguard/Montero/deGrom call ups, but they’re all on innings limits. Leave them in AAA, and limit their innings for a few months, and let Matsuzaka eat up some up in the show. If he’s great or at least decent, trade him to a team that needs him, and if he struggles, cut him loose.
The young guns, do not have that type of luxury. Matsuzaka and Lannan do. Start with them, use the young guys to make adjustments during the season, and limit their innings until then.
“if he struggles, cut him loose”
We’re trying to win games. I give the 5th starter spot to the pitcher who best gives me that chance. That is Mejia to me and many. Brian brings up a great point, as well, that as soon as Mejia hits his innings cap, we have Montero, Syndergaard, deGrom, and potentially someone like Fulmer, Mazzoni, or Bowman. Let’s not waste starts on declining pitchers who aren’t throwing well. If either Lannan or Dice-K prove to me that they’ve turned a corner in their declining careers, I’m all for it. I doubt that happens. Mejia is the most talented option for the 5th starter spot, assuming Syndergaard and Montero don’t make the team–which they shouldn’t.
I’m tired of throwing away games. Last year we gave 58 of our starts to guys named Laffey, Marcum, Daisuke, Harang, Hefner, Torres, and McHugh. I just don’t want to do that again. Those pitchers combined for an ERA just shy of 5.00. Let’s not make this mistake again. If you replace those 58 starts with Mejia, Montero, Syndergaard, deGrom? Forget all of the questions about the offense…this team is already significantly better than last year.
I agree on not wasting starts on washed-up guys, Steve. And for Tejada, everyone should try to forget he ever played for the Mets just for a moment – and then think, if they signed him to a minor league contract in the off-season, would you be inclined to have him be your starting SS….I think most would say MAYBE utility guy, that’s it.
Duda – no more leg pulls – win the job decisively…to do so, you need to play
We need to stop viewing it as preferable to have guys on the roster who can only pitch to lefty batters. Check Rice’s splits vs RHB last year compared to Edgin.
Our bullpen has been bad and getting worse each year under Alderson/Collins. And it’s because of the insane desire to bring in a LHP anytime a lefty comes up to plate in the late innings. We carry lefties on the roster who simply cannot get RHB out. And what ends up happening is we burn through too many relievers so we can get the platoon advantage for one batter in the 7th or 8th inning. We’re running our entire bullpen to benefit the guys who throw the least amount of innings. It’s not going to get better until we change that behavior.
Bullpen ERA by year
2013: 3.98
2012: 4.65
2011: 4.33
Not sure how that’s “getting worse each year under Alderson/Collins” Seems to me that 2013 was a step in the right direction. Still an ugly bullpen ERA, but we also spent insanely little money on it as well.
You have to factor in that scoring was down last year.
Still the Mets were next to last in bullpen ERA in 2012 and 12th out of 15th in 2013, so I guess there was improvement. But that improvement came from the RHP, not the LHP. The Mets used 7 LH relievers last year and they allowed 64 ER in 119.2 IP for a 4.81 ERA.
Right, so get better relievers. The management of the bullpen is not the problem. It’s the same reason you can’t blame a lack of scoring runs on the lineup configuration. There just aren’t good hitters there. If you had better pitchers, the unit will perform better, plain and simple. Every major league manager plays L/R splits late in the game. If you had a tough lefty who could also get righties out, he’d be used for full innings. Last I checked, we don’t have one and haven’t for a long while.
They have fine relievers.
They insanely insisted on carrying at least 2 LH relievers every single day of the season last year – regardless of how good they were. If they pitch their 7 best relievers they’ll have at least an average bullpen and probably a better one that that..
Oliver Perez would have been their second most valuable reliever each of the past two years behind Bobby Parnell. The Mets do not have a good bull pen and they haven’t for years. If you don’t play situations situationally, you will get burned. Every manager plays match ups. Every one, Brian. I agree that you want the best relievers you can on a team but you have to carry lefties. The fact that we haven’t had great lefties is accredited to past player development and a reluctance to sign them.
Name, that’s great research. We also gave many valuable relief innings to ineffective McHugh, Burke, Lyon, Atchison as well. The point is we just need better pitchers, period. The more talent you have in the bull pen, the more outs you are going to get.
You cannot carry an entire righty bullpen, though. That’s madness. Okay, maybe if they had seven Hollands and Kimbrels, fine, but we’re likely going to be giving innings to Valverde, Farnsworth, inexperienced Familia, Carreno, Black, and a recovering Parnell. There is absolutely talent there and it has the *potential* to be good…but it is not a strong unit. Throwing seven righties out there is a terrible idea with the players we have to choose from.
You’re the first person who has mentioned in any way shape or form carrying an all-righty bullpen. I said to take the seven best relievers. Right in the article itself I have Josh Edgin in the Opening Day bullpen.
Well, my seven top relievers wouldn’t include a lefty, so…
Also it’s funny to me that the only lefty you take actually has reverse L/R splits for his career. So, in essence, you actually are carrying an all-righty ‘pen.
Valverde has struggled recently getting lefties out. Ditto with Torres. Familia really struggled in the minors against lefties. Carreno? He’s the worst of the bunch against lefties. Only two guys adept at getting lefties out are Parnell and Black (who do have slight splits but it’s negligible), and I think the plan is to use then as a set-up/closer combo in some arrangement. Also one’s inexperienced and one’s returning from injury. Either way, they’re not going to be used as a situational “loogy”, so to speak.
So how are you getting lefties out with your bullpen? You can’t expect 7 inning starts, Black, Parnell every day. At some points (many points), especially against the NL East, you will have to get a big lefty out in a big spot. No one on your team fits that bill.
So, you’re worried about the 7th inning against roughly 1/3 of the league? OK
We’ve done better than most teams with the performance of our LOOGYs versus LHB. Scott Rice did great against lefties last year and Byrdak the previous two seasons. And where has it gotten us? I’ll let you lock up the one-batter outings versus a lefty in the 7th inning. I’ll take a more big picture approach.
Haha Brian, our starters will not average 6 innings a start. You’re not only assuming that, but also that Parnell will be healthy, Black will be effective, and that opposing managers will only pinch hit/double switch so that a left is up against a bad loogy (edgin) or a righty 1/3 of the time. If you want to base your roster off of incorrect assumptions like that, go ahead. Every team needs a situational pitcher who can get out lefties. Yours does not. That’s the only problem I have with it.
Mets SP pitched 969.2 innings over 162 starts last season. That’s a tiny shade under 6 IP. And that includes ~35 starts from Marcum, Dice-K, Laffey, Harang, Torres who all pitched below the 6 inning mark.
In my opinion, the theory that the bullpen needs a LOOGY is similar to the theory that the leadoff batter needs to be fast and be able to steal bases. And it has been proven that OBP is a better indicator of the leadoff role than SB.
Name, we also had Harvey.
Also, the average doesn’t mean you get that every start. You will have a lot of 5 inning games. Or 4. Or 5 and a third.
I don’t think you need a pure loogy but you absolutely need a reliever who can get out lefties. The only one on Brian’s squad who has proven he is able to do that against major league hitters recently is Parnell who is the closer. Find me one good team with zero non-closer relievers who couldn’t get lefties out at a good rate and I’ll concede the point. You need to be able to get lefties out. Period.
Honestly i’m not sure what point you’re trying to prove. In a bullpen with 7 members, there’s almost zero chance that none of them can get lefties out. And how are you defining success against lefties? .220 average? .300 OBP? OPS? I mean, last year David Aardsma faced 64 lefties with a .218/.317/.309 slash line.
We don’t have Aardsma anymore.
Only Parnell in Brian’s already incorrect 25-man, as Edgin was cut this morning, has gotten lefties out significantly in the majors recently. He’s coming back from injury. Black has in the minors but has little major league experience. Valverde was bad against lefties last year, Familia was poor against lefties in his minor league career, Carreno was the worst of the group both in the majors and minors. Torres? .268/.336? Not doing it for me.
My point, so we’re all clear here, refutes Brian’s thesis that we should not carry a situational lefty. The reason Scott Rice will make the team is because he’s death on lefties. Every good team has at least one guy like that.
Sure, maybe Familia will prove he can get lefties out or maybe Black but that’s not an assumption you want to play with when you’re trying to win games. There’s either righties who can’t get lefties out or inexperience in that bullpen. You need Rice in there. There’s a reason Edgin was cut this morning and I’ll guarantee you Rice makes the team. And that’s the right move.
Of course, you are all right in saying it would be better if we had a pitcher who could get lefties out consistently who could also get righties out. Sorry but we don’t have a pitcher like that. If you can point me to one who can, be my guest. He sure isn’t in Brian’s roster above.
Rice is the guy. He makes the team.
Thanks for the news about Edgin being cut.
As a writer, whenever someone doesn’t understand – or misinterprets what I wrote – my first instinct is to look and see what I could have done better to have prevented confusion. I think this article would have benefitted from a better headline and perhaps more clarity in my opening paragraphs.
This piece was about who I would take on the 25-man roster for Opening Day. It was never meant as a prediction on who would actually make the team. I have a fundamental difference about several things compared to Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson. And I don’t get any input on roster decisions, much to my chagrin.
This article was never intended to be something to take to Las Vegas and use as a betting tool.
If I was going to write a prediction on who would make the roster, I certainly would have included two lefties in the bullpen and one of them would have been Scott Rice. There was not one single day during the 2013 season where the Mets did not have two lefties in the pen. Why would I think they would do otherwise in 2014? As for Rice, he was on the roster all year until he got hurt. He did not spend a single day in the minors. Why would I think the Mets would send him to the minors at the start of 2014 when he led such a charmed life in 2013? Does that really make any sense?
Again, I apologize for not being clearer in what I wrote.
I’m happy to discuss any of my opinions on any article I write. I ask only that we do it in a civil way and not in a way that would provoke a rational person to cold clock the other if we talked this way in person. Every single one of our loyal readers have had disagreements with me but if I met them at a ball game, I bet each one of them would be happy to buy me a beer, as I would with them.
Finally, for what it’s worth, the argument that “every other team does it so we should, too” holds zero weight with me. I don’t think you do things just because you’ve always done it that way, or because that’s the way all of your competitors do it. Now, it may very well be that conventional wisdom is the best way and if so — that’s fine. But when you’ve had very little success doing something the same way that everyone else does, it seems prudent to explore other options. It’s the reason I applauded the Rockies for at least trying a 4-man rotation for a few months, after 20+ years of failing to develop an effective rotation the traditional way.
In the pre Tony LaRussa days – no one had a LOOGY. Someone had to be the one to try that new strategy and have success with it. I’d rather be the team that tries something new than the one that continues doing things the way that everyone else does them, regardless of how it works out. Your mileage may vary.
And, so we’re clear, my argument is a counter to your claim that we should try something else in regards to situational lefties.
I’m not sure I understand your last point, though. Every team carries a pitcher who can get lefties out, and nearly every team has been better than we have for quite a few years now. So your solution is to have a unit that cannot? I don’t understand that.
In addition, as this is a point I’ve made plenty of times now, it’s not that the Mets have tried something and it hasn’t worked as much as it is they just have not had talent in the bullpen. You’re focusing on a tiny aspect of roster construction and suggesting causality.
For a parallel argument, sure, teams can score runs without a single power hitter in the lineup but it sure makes it a heck of a lot easier if you have at least a couple. In other words, yea, you can have an effective bullpen if you don’t carry a situational lefty but it sure is easier if you have one who can. That’s all I’m saying. I’ve said this many times but if we had seven elite relievers (or even five and a couple replacement level guys), we would not be having this conversation. Currently we have a bunch of inexperienced players and a number of righties who aren’t good at getting out lefties.
Your point has been stated both quite often and quite clearly. There’s no reason for you to feel the need to do so yet again.
Let’s try looking at this another way. Scott Rice was exceptional against LHB last year. So why was he below-average as a reliever? Because despite Terry Collins’ herculean efforts to get him as many matchups versus LHB as possible (65%, if I remember correctly) he still has to face RHB and they kill him.
The advantage we’re getting from Rice in those 65% of his PA is being negated by what he does in the other 35%.
And then we have to factor in the affect of bending over backwards to optimize Rice’s usage is having on the rest of the bullpen. If we had a pitcher who could throw 1-2 IP every outing, rather than 1 to 3 batters, it would be a benefit to the rest of the pen and we wouldn’t risk throwing a starter in every game that went extra innings.
You keep saying we need better pitchers and I couldn’t agree more.
Stephen, the main issue I have is with your tone that the Mets need to carry a situational lefty, at all costs, no questions asked.
I don’t object to having a situational lefty. I do, however, object to Scott Rice. Yes, he’s good against lefties, but he makes every righty at the plate seem like Miguel Cabrera. As Brian stated, he also puts extra strain on the other relievers. If the starters average 6 IP per start, that leaves around 500 innings for the bullpen over the course of a season. An average pen has 7 members,, so split evenly, each guy should average 70 IP. Scott Rice Because Scott Rice is so bad against righties, the manager must limit his appearances versus righties and therefore he isn’t pulling his weight, and so the other guys have to pick up the slack. Does it makes sense to maximize the value of one guy at the expense of the other 6 (That’s what Brian means by looking at the big picture)? Note that you claimed that our starters will also often not reach the 6 inning mark, and in those cases, the strain on the other bullpen guys is even heavier. Overall, i don’t believe that the benefit of Scott Rice outweighs his costs.
Name … it’s a rarity but I have to agree with Stephen here.
I am generally prone to keeping and giving significant time anyone that does something exceptionally that I perceive as useful. Hit for power (Kevin Mitchell). Strike other batters out (Nolan Ryan). Play defense (Juan Lagares). Use speed (Jose Reyes). Exhibit incredible control on the mound, or perhaps really low WHIP (Dillon Gee).
They are rare human beings. Occasionally these players develop other skills which make them truly huge for your team – but until that happens you hoard those abilities and build around them.
I’m not saying that Scott Rice is “that guy” or putting him in a league with Lagares or Gee. But he is as close to that guy as we have on this team.
I understand hoarding rare talent. I guess I don’t consider that what Rice offers is all that rare.
Rice was very good against LHB last year but there’s a lot of lefties who do the very same thing. I see 17 lefty relievers last year who appeared in at least 30 games who limited LHB to a .500 or below OPS. At least two of them — Rice and Manny Parra — were available for free last year. Jake Diekman had an OPS 100 points lower against lefties last year than Rice.
The year that Kevin Mitchell hit 47 HR, no one else in either league hit 40.
Rice is going to be better against the lefties you listed in your other post (minus Chase Utley, who hits both LHP and RHP) than any other RHP the Mets can throw out there. The problem is that the vast majority of his batters faced are not going to go against those guys.
The value he’s providing in those 33 PA is completely negated by the other 180 PA he had last year.
And that’s not even taking into consideration how running the bullpen to maximize Rice’s value hurts every other non-closer reliever in the pen.
Specifically to the case of carrying Scott Rice, Name …
Domonic Brown
Freddie Freeman
Bryce Harper
Chase Utley
Jason Hayward
Ryan Howard
Adam LaRoche
Jimmy Rollins
(Sort done on LHB or SWH, vs Scott Rice, limited to divisional opponents, 2013, bbref).
In one year, Rice faced them 33 times and gave up 5 hits (2 doubles).
Without looking, I’m betting that Freeman, Hayward and Harper have a lifetime OPS approaching the mid-900s against the rest of the Mets. There is value there and I’m for taking it north with us.
Because you can find other players that also do what Rice does, doesn’t mean that he has an ability we can leverage.
And because Terry Collins insists on trotting him out there and leaving him exposed to RHB doesn’t negate what I am saying either. Wait … phone’s ringing. It’s Willie Randolph.
Without looking it up, I’m guessing 700 plate appearances by an opponent after inning 6. The Atlanta Braves use about 25% (1700? of 6500?) of their appearances by LHB.
That’s 210 appearances after inning 6. Give Scott 60% of those ABs, he’s got a potential 40 innings right there. (strictly back of the envelope. Please, let’s not get into the minutia of it.)
It’s not the player. It’s the manager. Scott Rice has an ability, and a liability. Leverage one, minimize the other.
I’m no fan of Terry Collins and generally I’m in favor of bashing him any chance I can get.
But the one thing you simply cannot fault him on is getting his lefty relievers the maximum number of appearances versus lefty batters as humanly possible. Without looking at any numbers, I bet there’s not 3 lefty relievers in 2013 who faced a higher percentage of lefties than Scott Rice.
Here’s a statistical approach.
The Mets gave 46 innings to these 5 undeserving lefties: Byrdak, Henn, Carson, Feliciano, Laffey, who proceeded to give up 36 runs for a 7.00 ERA. Replace those few innings with a Mets righty average of 3.50 ERA, and you save 18 runs.
Using Pythagorean expected record, that would have translated into 2 extra wins.
Stop giving innings to crappy lefties.
Excellent Name !
In regard to the bullpen, I like DePodesta’s thinking. On Montero and deGrom, Paul DePodesta told Kristie Ackert in the Daily News: “You look at the Cardinals and the Rangers in the last couple of years, they have had to bring their young pitchers up to the bullpen, because that is where there is room for them. We want to be in that type of situation, where we are bringing guys up to the bullpen in the big leagues. Maybe they are starters who will transition back to being starters later, or maybe they won’t because they have become so valuable in their role in the bullpen.” MetbogESPN 03-01-14.
I like breaking starters in as relievers.
I really, really dislike the idea that someone is too valuable as a RP to use as a SP. That’s the kind of thinking that almost kept us from using Jeremy Hefner as a SP last year and is keeping us from Carlos Torres this year.
That’s an unrealistic assumption … that you can take the 46 worst innings of a team’s performance and replace them with a 3.5 ERA.
It’s not like 3.5 ERAs are sitting by the phone, waiting for a job – especially for the AAS we gave our dirty 5.
LaTroy Hawkins — 70.2 IP at a 2.97 ERA. Signed to a minor league deal last offseason.
Carlos Torres — 86.1 IP at a 3.44 ERA. Signed to a minor league deal last year (with a provision to be in the majors at a certain date).
Now, this time last year probably none of us saw that coming. I know I didn’t. But it happens a lot. Relievers can be a crap shoot. We all think Farnsworth and Valverde are toast. But maybe they’ll surprise us. I wouldn’t wager money on anyone specific coming through. But someone will come up and give quality innings. Maybe it’s one of those two, maybe it’s Gonzalez Germen or Cory Mazzoni. Or maybe it’s someone not even on the radar right now.
One thing I have confidence in the Mets to do is to churn through relievers (especially righty relievers) to find someone to be solid. As bad as bringing Blaine Boyer to camp was a couple of years ago, at least they cut bait on him early and gave innings to Manny Acosta, who posted a 3.45 ERA in 47 IP in 2011.
The seven guys who make the Opening Day roster will not be the seven guys with the most IP of the team’s relievers at the end of the year. Last year three guys who didn’t go north with the club to start the season finished among the top 7 in RP innings. I expect something similar this year.
LOL.
Carlos Torres – had an ERA of 5.26 the year prior to coming to the Mets.
LaTroy Hawkins did have an ERA of 3.64, but he was 39 and in the last 16 (of his 42) innings had an ERA *approaching 6*.
Show me any two players – any two – that had an ERA of sub 4 that were signed the following year at league minimums. Or even $1MM. Or even incentive laden deals.
You’re saying they’re not available. I’m saying they are available but they don’t come with guarantees. It’s the nature of the beast. We tried in 2011 to pay for past bullpen performance by bringing in Francisco, Ramirez and Rauch and it blew up in our face. I’d much rather bring in guys on NRIs and shuffle through them like we’ve done the past few years. It’s not easy, but it can be done.
We’re very close to being able to have a quality bullpen with all homegrown arms. That will be even better.
I’m pretty okay with the overall setup, but why the heck would Sandy Bench the reigning NL SB champion? Eric Young earned a spot last season, and proved he had the speed to stay. Lagares was good, but Eric Young was better.
Crap, I messed up. I meant to say Terry instead of Sandy.
Eric Young Jr. wasn’t better though.
Jack, watching the game, I felt very confident that every single fly ball to centerfield would be caught, so Lagares gets a plus there. What we all fell in love with was EY’s first half month. But, after that, his OBP was .298. That’s a big negative. Young should play, but not start more than about 70 games, being moved around the field.
You’re giving Seratelli the nod over Tejada if Mets can’t bring in someone from the outside? Seriously? How is he any different than Omar Quintanilla? I think Flores has a better shot at starting SS than Seratelli.
I hope you are right on everything else but this is Terry Collins we are talking about. I can see EYJ as starting LF, C Young in CF, and Legares on the bench. I can see Ike as starting 1B and Duda as bench player. I can see Dice K in rotation, Lannan in pen, and Mejia in Vegas. I hope I am wrong.
Seratelli has significantly more power than Quintanilla.
Really? I had no idea. Neither of them seem to make much contact when I’m watching 🙂
Sandy was the only GM not to make a stinking trade during the offseason, when there was a greater number of trading partners and trade opportunities. Why do fans continue to hold out hope that a trade will occur before the season starts?
Well, we are talking about the guy who traded Beltran for Wheeler and Dickey (who granted, was coming off a CY Young season) for d’Arnaud and Syndergaard (not to mention Becerra who is a long ways away but does feature plus raw power and potentially just about an average hit tool). It would seem to me that Sandy wants to deal but won’t trade simply to make a trade and will likely wait until he gets what he feels is maximized value for his pieces.
I would also note that AZ has not yet traded any of their 3 SS, Sea hasn’t traded Franklin and CLE hasn’t traded either Cabrera or Lindor (and CHI hasnt done anything with Baez, Castro and Alcantara). Perhaps prices across the board prices are too high, especially given the number of seemingly available young SS (not counting the CHI players I mentioned who I doubt are seriously available).
Brian, your take on the situation looks solid to me! Unfortunately, it amounts to nothing more than a good read, because Alderson & Co. will decide who’s on the team and who isn’t, who’ll start and who’ll ride the bench. I’m guessing they won’t be on the horn to get your input any time soon.
But Sandy and the brain trust are a group of competent professionals, and they want the team to win. They’re going to make their decisions with every intention of producing the best results, regardless of how it appears to those of us in the peanut gallery. I just wish it was possible to know the reasons for the calls they make. It would be fascinating to know everything that informs their decision-making process, but that information won’t be made available to the masses until long after most people stop caring.
In the meantime, Alderson will lay down a thick fog, and Collins will poke his head out of it every once in awhile to tell us that down is the new up – not saying that it is for certain, but it’s something we might take a look at…
It’s an enjoyable article. Why would the Mets go after Drew? Both Franklin and Ownings are less money, but they would have to give up a pitcher with high potential. Both these player would be tied to the Mets for 4 or 5 years before eligibility for free agency. According to an article I read the Yankees are going after Didi Gregorius, what the Yankee’s have to offer outside of money, is a good question? But if Didi is traded then the D backs will keep Owings.
Brian, I like your thinking about the pitching staff, especially relating to Mejia and his innings cap. Your bullpen looks good, but you know that TC loves Scott Rice. Edgin is going to have to look like Superman to beat out Rice.
I do think that it’s about time that Brian Joura got over the fact that he feels that the Mets did not give Colin Cowgill a fair chance. It’s history, and fair or not the Mets were probably correct in their assessment. Is Seratelli going to be your new Cowgill-cause?
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
Or, as Casey would say, “you can look it up.”
Is Alderson the adult in the room because Jeff Wilpon is in the room? Alderson can hold his breath like a stubborn child and wait for Drew to drop his demands while the season flushes away. Is that being an adult?
The fans waited for this offseason because money was coming off the books and the young pitching was arriving. Well they didn’t add anything to the payroll, TC is content to let Dice K , Valverde, Farnsworth and Lannan lead the charge with retreads EY, Tejada, and Davis continuing the sub mediocrity. Same old, same old. Is this patience or stagnation ? This is looking more and more like a 74 win team.
I’m surprised you’re so down on Alderson. He’s earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to trades. While the fans want the SS situation fixed yesterday, Alderson recognizes that it’s still a buyer’s market with all of the options available.
The Mets need a shortstop or at least a backup shortstop before opening day.
Drew is only money and a short term commitment. Entering the season with no depth at such an important position is a fatal mistake. There is a time clock running unless Sandy wants to consider this his fourth rebuilding year.
I don’t see Satin and Brown making the team…certainly not both. They provide little in the way of double switch flexibility…. they field the wrong positions, and barely adequately. They’re “minus” baserunners, and they’re RH batters.
I’d like to see denDecker make the team—LH batter, some pop, defensive ability to play across the OF as a plus glove, plus speed.
As for #5 Starter—beginning of season is hit and miss on innings. Lannan is made for a “maybe you’ll start, maybe you won’t” role. All of the “plus” young arms benefit by pitching immediately and consistently as starters at AAA to start 2014. Degrom?… he could earn a BP slot outright.
The thing about replacing Mejia when he reaches his innings cap with those young pitchers you mentioned is that, theoretically, they will all be reaching their innings caps around the same time as well.
Unless, of course, the Mets are very methodical with how they use Syndergaard, Montero, etc in AAA to prevent that situation. There’s been talk of keeping Thor at 5 innings before bringing him up, so that would help. It may end up being that Mejia, depending on how everything breaks, may need to be replaced with a veteran rather than one of the youngsters.
Or Harvey….heh
All that being said, I’m definitely for Mejia breaking camp in the rotation. As you said, enough with the dumpster diving (for pitchers). The team is beyond that at this point.
Montero threw 155.1 IP last year and deGrom had 147.2 — with the Mets’ stated goal of limiting pitchers to a 30 IP increase, I have zero worries about running out of innings from the young pitchers.
Fair enough. But as an example, Gee hit 199 innings pitched during his last game at the end of September last year. This means (theoretically) that none of those young pitchers (including Montero) would get that far if their innings limits aren’t controlled strictly. Then again, Gee spent most of the second half going 6+ innings, which I’m not sure we should expect from any of the youngsters.
This really would only seem to be a potential problem if you expected the Mets to play beyond the end of September this season, though.
I don’t like the “limit a pitcher to five innings” mentality. They are still warming up, thus throwing pitches. Also, when he comes up, do you want to see five inning starts? What about the stressful innings with many men on? Mejia will be capped at about 120 innings at most. Montero and Syndergaard will go to about 160, and their season will start late April. Resign DiceK in September.
And for those expecting a DiceK trade, sounds good, but what do you expect to get from him while you are impeding the progress of your youngsters? More youngsters that won’t play?
You’re right Brian. Montero should go to about 185. Take over the argument, LOL! I bow out.
No way Duda wins out over Davis. It’s way too premature to be predicting the outcome at 1b. Six or seven exhibition games ? Come on…. Your remarks on Davis say more about the Mike Puma incident than anything else.
My remarks say absolutely nothing about the Mike Puma incident. I would appreciate it if you didn’t put words in my mouth.
To this point in their careers, Davis and Duda are a wash offensively. My preference for Duda is that he’s never gotten a chance to play a full season at his preferred position. I’d like to see what he could do if he was given 600 PA as the primary first baseman.
While Davis has a lot to prove this year, Duda hasn’t exactly lit up the board, particularly with RBI’s. He is nowhere near the 1b glove that Davis is. In all respects, Ike makes way more sense at 1b. You can formulate an opinion on either player at this point, they both have had ample opportunity whether Duda has played 1b enough or not.
Ike is the stronger candidate, and given the opportunity with Young and Granderson in the lineup, I would expect Ike WILL have a very good season. That’s what we all want, don’t we ?
Ike is a zero. His track record of inconsistency is his body of work. Sometimes up, most mostly not, and surely not when we need him. The rose colored glasses of 2010 need to be replaced by the bifocals of reality — or whatever he needs to see a baseball being pitched. It’s also a bit of a mistake to think he has a superior glove any more. His batting problems have dragged into the field, such that his line play is pretty bad, and turning the 3-6-3 is painful to watch. On the other hand, Duda is not the answer either. Neither are every day major leaguers from what we have seen so far. I’d prefer to see Duda get 1B and see if he can deliver, but this is likely a waiting game until…..? Dom Smith? While the Braves are trotting out Freeman, and the Nats with LaRoche, we have an army of AAA and AAAA first basemen.
I hold Alderson accountable for making a mess of position players (1B, SS, OF) and batting order gaps, all of which should have been filled (Aoki went for a bargain for example…Chris Young was a terrible acquisition). I mean really, just what do they plan to so with Flores?
Well said Chris F. And for all the good Alderson has done he has not completed the job.
I see Flores being the next Duda/Davis dilemma. Flores/Murphy who do you trade, who do you keep and will Alderson ever make a decision and decide?
If there is a surplus at a position, wouldn’t you think you would trade the surplus to fill a need ?
Why bat Murphy in a different slot? Last year, batting second, he had 92 runs and 78RBI. Many stolen bases. #2 in the league in hits, top 10 in doubles. He may have even led the league in that obscure statistic, “Runners Moved Up”. Very high numbers for a second baseman or a #2 hitter, given the Mets’ weak hitting. If it ain’t broke…
If Eric Young is better than both Duda and Davis, and if Chris Young likewise, what about the case for EY at 2nd and Murphy at 1b?
-PJB
The Mets need Murphy to hit for power instead of being content to slap the ball the other way. He’s never going to have a .370 OBP but he might hit 20 HR and have 80-plus RBIs.
Well Bri, We may not see eye to eye but on this one you are right-on. Maybe other teams didn’t see the Murphy potential during the off-season ? This might be a good question for Collins.
I would think it would be a small change in his philosophy of hitting ( Murphy ), but no player should ever be the same player year after year. A little change is a good thing. Some of the great hitters had several batting stances etc..
2103 was an off year for Murphy. In 2011 he batted .320 (On-base .362) and was on pace for 45+ doubles, before his season-ending injury. If he put up those numbers last year, and if Wright played all year, and if they didn’t dump Marlon Byrd,or if he played for the Cardinals, he’d’ve driven in nearly 100 and scored 110+. At 29, how likely is it that a player with his work ethic has his best years behind him? Should you move a perfect #2 hitter down the line-up so that, as one contributor suggests, he can drive in 80+ runs?
–PJB
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words as it is a violation of our Comment Policy
Except Murph clearly is in some sort of agony over the misguided one-size-fits-all offensive philosophy employed by Alderson (which I find offensive!). It is clear that nearly regardless of who is between the lines, mismanagement outside the lines is taking a toll, and will prevent this team from being serious (unless they do it despite the eyes from above).
Im sick of “the walk” as something to be chasing. Its total crap. Id like to see the Cardinals approach…find your pitch and hit it…be the guide. Funny how well it seems to work. Murph thinks like a Cardinal, but plays for the Mets. He’s in a bad place.
How come you left out Elgrin?
This is a make or break time for Davis. I’d rather take my chances with Ike for a few more months as IKE absolutely has to play well or go. I think you underrate Young also. Since this is ” all just talk ” I’d rather see the hand played out during the season before passing judgment on anyone.
Competition in ST is what the game is all about. The Mets are a far better team here then some like to admit. If I’m wrong about Davis, I will have no qualms about saying so when the time comes. Hoping all here will do the same.
Some pitchers ERA’s get blow up, because they take one for the team. Last year Haffner gave up 8 or nine runs in one game because no one was rested in the bullpen, so TC left him out three. Due to his short season, his ERA didn’t reflect his season. I really don’t see some of these veteran, lasting through the season. Although they have looked good so far. Remember it spring training, and managers want to look at what they have in he minors. So your not looking at the teams top hitters. Also at this time of year the pitchers are usually ahead of the hitters. I look for the Mets to have a strong bullpen.
Just for the record, Brian. I do appreciate the way you run your blog and the diversity of opinions that we often have on the site. I’d be glad to buy you a beer anytime you come to my neck of the woods in South Carolina (not too far from where the Savannah Sand Gnats play).
And, I believe that Anthony Seratelli survived the first round of cuts. Could it be……..?
Thanks Norm!
The last thing I want is everyone to agree with me. Differing opinions are a good thing and we need to constantly reexamine our points of view and see if they are still valid.
Did I know you were a Sandlapper? Anyway, I hope you get to see some Sand Gnats games this year.