The Mets first round draft pick from the 2014 draft, Michael Conforto, reportedly has agreed to terms and will sign with the team, but has yet to sign the necessary paperwork. Conforto is exactly what the Mets need, a left handed hitting, corner outfielder with power who fits into their methodology at the plate. His defensive prowess is in question, but his work ethic isn’t and if he joins an outfield of say Juan Lagares in center field and Brandon Nimmo in right field in 2016 or 2017, then the defense won’t be as big of a deal.
So, who else did the Mets draft in 2014? Let’s take a look at the good, the medium and the bad amongst those picks.
The Good:
You’re going to see a common link, for the most part, amongst the good picks that were made. The Mets made a concerted effort to get big bats and big, projectable pitchers. Since the early part of the draft was spent on bats, starting with Conforto, most of the pitchers selected are amongst the developmental variety, which is ok considering the system’s pitching stockpile.
Eudor Garcia
In the fourth round, the Mets selected Garcia, a junior college player from Texas who was known prior to the draft as having one of the most explosive right handed bats in the draft class. In his final year in El Paso, Garcia batted .460 with 14 home runs, huge numbers for college competition, even if it was on the community college level. He slipped to the fourth round for one simple reason; he doesn’t have a position. Garcia currently plays third base and will start his Mets career at that position in Kingsport, but he lacks arm strength and range, so it’s more likely that his stocky,5’11”, 225 pound frame will eventually move to first base or left field. The bottom line is, he should hit and we should all get ready for the Miguel Cabrera comparisons when Garcia is pummeling minor league pitching. Anytime Cabrera’s name can be mentioned in passing is a positive sign that the Mets made a good selection.
In the seventh round, the Mets selected Winningham, a Florida high school first baseman with good size and lots of power from the left side. At 6’2”, 220 pounds, Winningham has plenty of length and strength to power balls over the wall, and did so with aplomb in high school. There is some concern about his ability to make contact as he reportedly has some hitches in his swing, but finding raw power like Winningham’s in the seventh round is fairly rare. Questions about why he slipped to here are simple. He can’t play anywhere other than first base, so for Winningham, it’s going to be home run or bust. Still, plucking a high school kid with this kind of power potential in the seventh round is a win for the Mets.
Darryl Knight
In the 14th round, the Mets grabbed another slugger from the right side in Knight. Knight has three things going for him; he’s a catcher with an above average arm, he hits home runs and he knows how to take a walk. After playing in junior college , Knight transferred to Embry-Riddle University, where he proceeded to hit .338 with a 1.069 OPS and 15 home runs, again repeating the huge numbers motif of many of the Mets hitting choices in the draft. Unfortunately, there are reasons why a slugging catcher fell to the 14th round. Knight’s ability to remain a catcher is in question as his mechanics behind the plate are reportedly not very sound. Since he’s already 21, his ability to grow as a catcher is really going to determine his long term fate in the major leagues. There is also some concern with his ability to make contact as he struck out 44 times during that massive season at Embry-Riddle. All of these concerns aside, this is a potential big bat to get in the fourteenth round and if he can stay at catcher, this is a massive win for the Mets in this draft class.
Milton Ramos
Stepping away from the big sluggers for a moment, the Mets spent their third-round pick (they didn’t have a second rounder due to signing Curtis Granderson) on a high school short stop in Ramos. Fielding is Ramos strength and he reportedly has huge potential in this area. Reports state that the weakest part of his fielding is his arm, which is above average, showing how strong his other skills are. The question with any shortstop who falls to the third round is always the same, the ability to hit. Ramos has those same questions. Currently he projects, if his bat makes it to the big leagues, to be no better than an end of the lineup hitter with some speed. However, he has room to fill out strength wise and, when he does make contact, can hit the ball hard. He’s very aggressive at the plate right now, so if he can learn to temper his aggression and get his swing in order, it’s thought he could power 10 plus home runs out of the park. Add that in with his fielding prowess and his above average speed and the Mets made a nice pick here to continue to fill out their middle infield ranks in the minors.
In the sixth round, the Mets grabbed a versatile, left hand hitting college bat from LSU in Moore. Not only does Moore hit from the left side, but he’s a catcher to boot. Left hand hitting catchers are like lefty relievers, they always have a place in the major leagues. Moore’s bat is solid too, as he doesn’t strike out much, knows how to take a walk and has some power, although not in the league of some of the players mentioned above. He can also play first base and third base as LSU had several catchers that were better defensively than Moore and they wanted to keep his bat in the lineup. There’s the rub with Moore. He might not have what it takes to stay a catcher. He’s known for working well with pitchers, but his arm strength is at best below average and could make it so he can’t play the position at all. His bat is good enough to make it to the majors, but what position that will be at will dictate how long his career is. All that said, the potential to have a good hitting, left handed catcher is something the Mets couldn’t pass up on.
Arnaldo Berrios
With their second-to-last selection, the Mets selected another high school age player, currently working in Carlos Beltran’s Academy in Puerto Rico. Berrios doesn’t fit the power spectrum of most of the Mets bat selections in the draft, but he’s one of those toolsy players that are hard to pass on when you get to the later portions of the draft. At this point in time, tools are all there is to Berrios. He’s a switch hitter who has above average speed, some power and decent arm strength. He has room to fill out his frame, which might take him out of center field, but could also increase his power. He’s also reportedly overly aggressive at the plate. Basically, he’s a young project with some upside. As an end of the draft selection that looks likely to sign (not confirmed by the Mets yet, but reportedly will occur), it’s hard to not like this selection.
Erik Manoah, Alex Durham, Gabriel Llanes and Kurtis Horne
All four of these pitchers are in relatively the same boat. They are all projectable pitchers from high school with different levels of success, positives and negatives. The most polished is Manoah as he has a solid, powerful frame, good command and a three pitch repertoire (fastball, curveball and change-up). He’s also shown good velocity in the past, touching 94 on the gun on occasion. Despite that, his velocity has not been consistent and if it’s actually on the lower end, will be a problem in the majors. Horne is a tall, powerful Canadian lefty, who is the youngest person drafted by the Mets this year. He’s got a long way to go and doesn’t have much in his arsenal right now, but he was taken in the 31st round, so taking a risk on his size and coach ability is a good one. Llanes and Durham are typical Mets high school selections. Both are tall young pitchers with the ability to put on muscle. Both have decent fastballs at this time and both have issues with mechanics that if they are solved and the size is added, could add miles per hour to their fastballs. All four of these pitchers were taken outside of the top ten rounds, so they were good risks to take. None of these four could develop or all could, but these are good picks just for their youth and projectable frames alone.
In the seventh round, the Mets snatched a huge left hander from Oklahoma City University. Wieck is a giant. He stands at 6’9” and throws a sinker that has been clocked at 94, but normally sits in the high eighties and low nineties. He also has a change up and curve ball in his repertoire, but those are behind his strong sinker. On top of all of this were ridiculous college numbers, 118 strikeout’s against 23 walks in 69.2 innings. The downside to Wieck is simple. He hasn’t been pitching all that long as a starter. Numerous stops and starts have occurred in Wieck’s career so far, including elbow surgery straight out of high school in 2012 and multiple college transfers. We’ll see what he becomes, but with his huge size eye popping numbers in 2014, above average velocity for a lefty and still relatively young age, this was a nice pick up for the Mets.
The Middle of the Rung picks:
The Mets played it a tad safe at times in this draft and this is where these picks come in. The Mets definitely had a method they were following, but a few times they let the method cause them to be a bit too conservative.
The Mets nabbed Prevost in the fifth round, following their preferred method for choosing pitchers; size, athleticism and control. Prevost has all of that stuff on his side. Prevost is 6’8” and a former college infielder. He also is known for having excellent control, which are all pluses. The reason this is neither a win nor a loss as a pick is that all of those positive things are balanced by the fact that Prevost better be on top of that control if he’s going to be successful. On top of that, he hasn’t been starting all that long as he converted to a pitcher full time during his junior year. He’s got a lot of Wieck in him, but the differences are in Prevost’s secondary pitches, his age and his fastball. They both throw at about the same velocity, but 94 coming from a lefty is different than coming from a right hander. Also, where Wieck still has room for growth, the fear with Prevost is that he’s grown about as much as he can. He needs to develop his secondary pitches, a slider and a change-up, or make sure that fastball is well located down in the zone. Does Mike Pelfrey ring a bell for anyone? This isn’t saying that Prevost won’t eventually be good, but the Mets probably could have gotten him later in the draft and gone with someone with more upside in the 5th round.
The Mets drafted Katz in the eighth round again following their mantra for the draft, the acquisition of power for their farm system. There is no doubting Katz has power. While playing for William and Mary, the bull like Katz (6’3”, 220 pounds) hit 10 home runs as a freshman, then followed that up by having a monster junior year in 2014, hitting .362 with an 1.091 OPS and 14 home runs. He also has advanced pitch selection, following the Mets mantra of looking for his pitch. The issues with Katz lie in his bat speed and, more problematically, his defensive position. Katz bat is not very fast and playing around with his swing might be the only way to guarantee that he’s going to be able to hit big league fastballs. The Mets talk about him as an outfielder, but that doesn’t jive with his college history. Katz is not fast and is probably going to end up being stuck at first base. The problem with that is that the Mets are getting a little back logged down there at first base, especially after drafting Winningham, who can only play first base, and Garcia, who will probably eventually move to first base. Both Garcia and Winningham have bigger upsides than Katz, so it’s a little odd that the Mets would draft someone who they’ll have to either play out of position or have him get stuck behind other higher level prospects (don’t forget Jayce Boyd and Dominic Smith, who will also be ahead of him). It just seems that this selection could have been used at a different position.
William Fulmer
In the 22nd round, the Mets drafted Fulmer out of a division two school, the University of Montevallo. Fullmer is a second baseman with the ability to stick at that position fielding wise and knows how to get on base. He did so with aplomb in college, but doesn’t offer much in terms of power or speed. The Mets might have hit the target with this one, but it’s hard to tell yet until he gets on the field. He sort of seems like organizational filler, but who knows, maybe the Mets scouts found a diamond in the rough. Since this is the 22nd round, it’s hard to say this pick is a negative, but it also can’t be given a plus. We’ll see how he plays, but again, this probably could have been used for someone with a bit more potential than what Fulmer appears to have.
James Duff and Tyler Badamo
Both of these guys are right handed pitchers from the local area. Both have positives about them, but limited upside. Badamo was one of the best division two pitchers out there and has a full arsenal, including a fastball that has been clocked at 94 and a hard slider. He’s also historically thrown a curve. The problem is that his fastball is a little two straight and not hard enough to make up for that. Without control, he won’t be anything more than a relief pitcher. Duff is another tall pitcher (6’6”) with a sinker (remember Wieck and Provost) and excellent control. However, Duff doesn’t have Wieck or Provost’s velocity, nor does he have any developed secondary pitches. If he doesn’t gain velocity or secondary pitches, he will also end up as bullpen fodder. The reason these two aren’t considered negatives is that they were selected after round 20 and do have some upside, if it’s limited. The issue is that the 20’s is the perfect time to take some risks on higher end talent and the Mets played it a bit too safe here.
The Bad Ones:
The Mets definitely got caught up a few times in this draft taking players that either fit the organizational philosophy or had some eye popping specific trait. Unfortunately, they took some of these players in spots that either more complete players or better upside players were surely available.
Connor Buchmann and Kelly Secrest
These two were selected by the Mets back to back in the 10th (Secrest) and 11th rounds (Buchmann). The issue is simple. Both are squarely relief pitchers and thus have limited upside in the Mets system. Basically, if they falter in those roles, they have nothing else they can do in the system. Buchmann is the classic example of a team falling in love with velocity. Buchmann has been known to hit 98 on the gun, which is great, but he’s a total risk even with that. He had little positive production in the college ranks and has a small frame at 6’1”, meaning that he can’t maintain that velocity outside of the short term, totally limiting him to relieve status. Secrest is a tad more polished, but not by much. He’s got good velocity for a lefty, hitting 94 at times and throws a curveball that isn’t all that developed yet. His control is all over the place though, again limiting his flexibility on the team. The bottom line is that there were most definitely players available at this time that were either in the low college or high school ranks that had higher upside as starters, making these limited upside relievers not good selections.
Bryce Beeler
This one is called Jacob deGrom Syndrome. In the 19th round, the Mets selected Beeler, a converted infielder. The difference here is that Beeler never fully converted in college. He played in the field and on the mound throughout his college career. He doesn’t have all that much velocity and due to his limited time on the mound, not a lot of good secondary pitches. He’s clearly a project and one that may have limited upside due to Beeler’s age. This was the time to select, if a project was necessary, a younger, higher upside player. Beeler just doesn’t fit the bill.
In the 30th round, the Mets selected a college outfielder from Kansas in Tharp. The issue here is he just doesn’t seem to be a player with much potential. He’s clearly an organizational guy who follows the team philosophy but probably won’t develop into much. He’s not very toolsy and an older player. Drafting these kinds of players is definitely about making a safe pick as opposed to taking a chance and the 30th round is always a good opportunity to take a chance. The Mets did so with every pick after Tharp, so someone must have really liked this guy. It’s just hard to see the upside here.
Matt Blackham, Alex Palsha, Nicco Blank and David Roseboom
The issue with all of these guys is that they are basically going to be relief pitchers from the start. The problem with drafting such limited players, like the above four, along with Buchmann and Secrest, is that they don’t offer a whole lot if they don’t make it as relievers. If you take a chance on a starting pitcher that doesn’t make it, but shows they are better in the bullpen (Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, etc.) at least you’ve now added a high end arm to the bullpen stable. Blank and Blackham are small right handers that throw hard, which is a problem because their size (both are under six foot), doesn’t engender the ability to throw that hard for that long. Palsha and Roseboom are limited upside pitchers who really have no shot of being starters and don’t have that one killer pitch yet that can make it as relievers. The point is, why draft players that really don’t offer much long term potential. All four are also college pitchers, further limiting any development. Again, these are selections that probably could have been used on either more complete limited upside players or players that were worth risks.
The Unsigned:
Thirteen of the Mets’ 39 selections have not signed contracts and most won’t. A few though seem to have left the window open or are just awaiting Conforto’s official signing so the Mets know exactly how much money they have left to spend.
The intriguing ones are Joel Huertas, a projectable high school lefty with a 90s fastball already, Luke Bonfield, a line drive hitting outfielder with the body type to add power, Raphael Ramirez, a toolsy high school center fielder, Tommy Pincin, a slugging high school catcher, and Jordan Hand, and athletic high school catcher with an advanced bat. Huertas will probably sign, as he has no college commitment. With Huertas, the Mets would have added a nice stable of young left handed pitching to their minor league roster. The best guess amongst the other four is that the Mets sign, at most, two of them. Bonfield has been chatting on twitter with people in the Mets organization and fans and definitely seems open to the idea of signing. Pincin reportedly met with Mets upper management sometime after the draft. Hand and Ramirez have given no sign either way, which can be perceived as either positive or negative. If the Mets get three of these five, then it adds three more picks to the win column as all have upside and youth.
Conclusion:
Overall, this was a good draft. The Mets clearly had a method in mind when attacking this draft and followed it to a tee. They added power to their organization in the early rounds and a lot of projectable tall young pitching in the middle and late rounds. They may have gotten a bit conservative at times, but they obviously had a specific agenda and followed it. Let’s look forward to seeing these young Mets play. Until that happens, all of the above is conjecture. Let’s go Mets!
I enjoyed reading about all of these guys but I think the one thing missing is that some of these guys were selected with the idea in mind that they could save money with their signing bonus.
Prevost, Garcia and Secrest were almost certainly picked because of their willingness to sign below-slot deals. The Mets saved over $500,000 with those three picks alone.
Nice reporting, very thorough.