The early decisions in any offseason surround the status of a team’s 40 man roster. The 40 man roster is The Great Wall of a professional baseball team. It’s what allows an organization to protect its players so that they can be allowed to develop into a team that should be able to contend. 40 man rosters though, are constantly in flux, due to injuries, minor league promotions, waivers, free agent signings and trades. At the end of every season, some of the most important decisions a team makes is who to keep on the 40 man roster and not. The ones that the team wants to remove are not tendered a contract
The Mets 40 man roster crunch has a lot of different factors affecting it. This includes protecting Rule V eligible players, injured players and monetary concerns. The Mets only have four players under long term contracts, David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon. The Mets have 18 other players in their pre-arbitration or arbitration years who will definitely be tendered contracts. Two other players, Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell, are returning from the 60 day disabled list and need roster spots. That leaves 16 more roster spots, where the Mets now have to make decisions on who to tender contracts to, what prospects need to be protected by being added to the roster and what free agents or trades they want to pursue.
Currently, 18 players are on the roster that the Mets need to make decisions about. Two are easy. Bobby Abreu is retiring and Daisuke Matsuzaka is a free agent that won’t be resigned. Technically speaking then, the Mets can retain the other 16 players and have a complete roster, but that won’t happen. Looking at who is Rule V eligible this year, there are at least three pitchers the Mets will protect by adding to the roster, Noah Syndergaard, Jack Leathersich and Akeel Morris. Gabriel Ynoa, Cory Mazzoni, Chase Bradford and Logan Verrett are also pitchers that could be protected, not to forget position players like Daniel Muno, Dustin Lawley, Travis Taijeron and T.J. Rivera, all who could be added to another teams roster and potentially make it through a season, even in a bench role. That’s a lot of players, but even if you hold to just the first three, the Mets need to make some tough decisions.
So, let’s take a look at the other 16 players that potentially have a chance of being removed from the 40 man roster. To do so, they have been split up into several groups of players:
Relief Pitchers: Dario Alvarez, Jeff Walters, Gonzalez Germen, Erik Goeddel, Scott Rice, Buddy Carlyle and Dana Eveland
Alvarez was dominant in the minor leagues this season, but did so as an older player at mostly Single-A and wasn’t that impressive during his September call up.
Walters had to undergo Tommy John Surgery during the season, but prior to that was looked at as a potential bullpen arm that could have been on the Mets in 2014, which obviously didn’t happen due to the injury.
Germen has been both excellent and awful in equal measure, but offers a change of pace from the other hard throwing arms in the pen due to his excellent change up. He’ll begin next year at the age of 27 and still has a minor league option, allowing for roster flexibility.
Goeddel, who will turn 26 in December, boasts a mid-nineties fastball and potential plus curve ball. He also pitched solidly in the majors and is in his first season as a full time member of a bullpen.
Rice is a 33 year old lefty specialist who struggled all season, in both the majors and minors.
Carlyle, who will turn 37 during the offseason, was a revelation as a veteran bullpen arm, filling in when the Mets needed to eat up innings and rest their better bullpen pitchers. He’s also arbitration eligible, but could be had back as a minor league free agent.
Eveland is also arbitration eligible but out of minor league options and will be 31 in October. He was very successful in the role of second left hander out of the bullpen for the Mets. Due to being a lefty and his experience in the majors, Eveland could get a major league contract from another team.
Predictions:
The Mets non-tender Rice, Carlyle and Walters, to start. Walters has no need to be on the roster as he will be designated for assignment and pass through waivers easily while he rehabs from surgery, as Jeremy Hefner did last season. Carlyle pitched well, but he could be brought back as a minor league free agent and his role can be filled by a multitude of pitchers in the system. With Josh Edgin on the roster and the need to protect Leathersich, Rice really doesn’t have a place on the team.
The Mets hold onto Germen for now. Germen offers flexibility and potential, so the Mets don’t need to dump him at this time, unless a move is made in which they need roster space. If that happens, Germen’s inconsistency could lead to the Mets trying to pass him through waivers
The Mets tender contracts to Goeddel, Alvarez and Eveland. Eveland deserves a chance to come back and since the Mets will be letting go of Rice and like a second lefty in the bullpen, Eveland fits into that slot nicely while other younger lefties are developing, which is the reason Alvarez stays. If Alvarez bombs at higher levels, he’ll be gone next year, but there’s no reason to non-tender him now. Same goes for Goeddel, who has one more year to show that his arm can translate to success on the mound.
Outfielders: Cesar Puello, Eric Young Jr., Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Andrew Brown
Puello is out of minor league options and would become a minor league free agent if he doesn’t make the 25 man roster. Those kinds of players don’t make it through minor league free agency. He also struggled in Triple-A this year, but still remains the same intriguing five tool player he’s always been and he will be only 24 to start the season.
Young Jr. offers one elite aspect to his game, speed. No other Met on the roster has Young Jr.’s potential to be disruptive on the base paths. He’s also the only switch hitter currently on the roster and has shown to be a quality left fielder. His ability to play second base hasn’t been utilized that much as a Met, but it gives the team more flexibility. He’s also under team control for the next two seasons, but is due a raise that should take his salary via arbitration to over two million dollars for next season.
Nieuwenhuis showed this season that he can embrace a bench role and provide left handed power in that capacity. He can also play all three outfield positions well and has no minor league options left.
Brown has shown himself to be a quadruple-A player who has one strong aspect to his game, power. The problem is that Brown will be 30 years old at the start of next season and will receive a raise in arbitration this season, even if it’s minimal.
Predictions:
Brown will be non-tendered, probably early in the offseason. The Mets have a glut of back-up corner outfielders and Brown’s age, limitations and potential raise will cause the Mets to let him go.
Young Jr. will most likely be non-tendered, again, due to the glut of players. The only saving grace for Young Jr. is his speed and that the Mets seem to like him as a back-up, but his salary could be the final decision maker.
Puello will be kept, pending what the Mets due in the outfield position this offseason. Puello still offers potential, but his lack of minor league options could cause the Mets to let him go if they acquire a starting level corner outfielder.
Nieuwenhuis will be kept as he offers left handed power and versatility off the bench, which can’t be ignored. He’s also pre-arbitration and a lot cheaper than Young Jr.
Catchers: Anthony Recker and Juan Centeno
Recker has been a solid, no nonsense back-up catcher. Teammates like him, pitchers don’t mind throwing to him and he hits the ball with authority when he’s not striking out. He will receive a raise in arbitration this year and just turned 31.
Centeno hits left handed, is an elite defensive catcher and will turn 25 in November. He also has minor league options remaining.
Predictions:
Both players remain on the forty man roster. The Mets don’t need to make a move here yet, but when Kevin Plawecki needs to be added, one of these two is gone.
Infielders: Josh Satin, Wilfredo Tovar and Ruben Tejada
Satin has minor league options left, but struggled this season and lost his job to Eric Campbell.
Tovar just turned 23 and is an elite defender at shortstop and second base. He has shown steady improvement in the minors with the bat and is extremely difficult to strike out, but offers very little offensive upside.
Tejada, despite being on the team for five years, will only turn 25 this offseason. He showed the ability to get on base at a higher clip this season, had a career high in home runs and showed steady defense at short stop. He’s most likely a back-up in the major leagues and showed the capacity to handle that role this year. He will receive a raise in arbitration that should take his salary to over two million dollars for next season.
Prediction:
The Mets retain Tovar for now and give him a shot as the team’s back-up middle infielder in spring.
The Mets non-tender Satin and Tejada, for different reasons. Satin doesn’t have a spot on the roster with Campbell’s emergence. Tejada probably makes too much money to be a back-up, especially for a team that has admitted to the need to add two more bats this offseason, of which one will probably need to be at shortstop if they aren’t ready to hand the reigns to Wilmer Flores.
None of this is definite, especially the Tejada and Young Jr. situations, but it illustrates the tough decisions a team has to make at this time of year. The Mets need to protect their young players and make additions on the offensive side of the ball, so let’s hope they make the right decisions this offseason regarding the players they already have.
It’s interesting that you have Colon as “long term contract.”
I would have written the same thing.
It presupposes the concern Met fans have about payroll.
Very good article and sound reasoning. Having to add Puello to the 25 man roster may create a problem as he has not even mastered AAA much less make it to the majors.
I agree, which makes what to do with Puello tough. He very well may be a casualty of a free agent signing.
Get the rotten tomatoes ready.
The Mets will be making a mistake in letting RubenTejada leave. Quite possibly, a large mistake.
His numbers, over larger sections of his career (I think we can say 2013 was an outlier), indicate that he is a little less than league average with the bat and certainly a better than average fielder. Take out a bad middle summer this year and you have a pretty ok year.
Before you hurl those red orbs my way, look at his numbers with a truly open mind. His bat, for a SS, wRC+ indicates a middle of the pack hitter.
My life history tells me its a mistake to let go a roughly league average hitter, at a premium defensive position which he can play well, at the age of 24. Just a big, bad ass mistake. Reminds me of letting Amos Otis go, although I know its not the same thing.
Mind you – I’ve got a bunch of anti-Tejada rant posts here. And I think Flores can play. But somehow, you have to make room for Tejada before you make room for relief pitchers.
[edit: when I say league average, obviously I mean average for a SS.]
I agree with you assessment. I see Tovar as a sleeper for short stop. He was injured most of last season with a broken hand, and Reynolds passed over him. But Tover can play defense, like no other in the organization. I like that he’s a contact hitter, who doesn’t strike out.
Tovar over Tejada? A major league regular, probably in the third quartile of all SSs, young and still cheap, or a AA guy that hasn’t shown he can hit?
I’ve never seen Tovar play, so maybe you have me on that one. Seems like a stretch to me.
The idea here is to retain talent. I think the Orioles and the Indians would take Tejada to caddy their new SS toys, but leave behind Tovar. Athletics too; they’ll probably lose Lowrie.
24 year old legitimate MLB Middle Infielder– love him or not, Tejada will be tendered.
He may not be a starter, but he’s 24 and he can play at this level.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/seasontype/2/position/ss/sort/OPS/order/true
Tejada- Time to stop wondering what he is, and time to start recognizing what he is. He’s a .250/330/645 unspectacular SS who can play other positions and contribute, both as a starter and off the bench, if the Mets discover a replacement. Currently- there is no replacement. He’s the *only* (sorry- I cannot capitalize here) guy on the roster with proven ability to play SS on a regular basis. As far as the “what-if’s” that embody our conjecture about whether the Mets can be a serious contender for a playoff spot —place him at around 5th place behind- DWright Recovery return to previous stats, CGranderson return to previous stats, MHarvey return to previous stats, JLagares continuation of 2014 stats, and Td’Arnaud Continuation of 2nd half stats. In other words-if all those things take care of themselves, Tejada is a *problem* which doesn’t need to be solved. Let’s concentrate on an OF bat instead of thinking about cutting a guy who, while not spectacular, wont ever be the reason that the Mets don’t compete for a playoff spot
I agree that he should stay, but he’s an easy contract to drop for money. If the Mets bring in Tomas or trade for Bautista, Tejada should stay right where he is, but right now, I don’t feel strongly about a big acquisition. I think they are going the Cuddyer route for monetary reasons, which could dictate that they dump a Tejada and Young, who both bring positives off the bench, to help with the salary increase.
If we are going to lose a young player – any young player – with upside to keep Tejada, that will be a shame. Backup infielders are available every year and we know that Tejada is a limited player, to be polite.
Many things would have to occur before Tejada would not be tendered. I think that the Mets believe that Flores is a better shortstop option than Tejada. If the Mets upgrade at shortstop then Flores will be retained as the back up middle infielder (he has no options) instead of Tejada unless Murphy is also traded then Flores moves over to second and Tejada is the backup. But what if Herrera beats out Flores in spring training and Flores then becomes the back up middle infielder and Tejada is out of a job. Teams must decide to tender around December 1st so too much would have to occur before then. In all liklihood Tejada would be tendered.
Why do you suppose the Mets played Flores at 2B the last week rather than SS if Flores is considered the starter? I don’t know if that’s how you build confidence, but like Baxter playing every game during the last week two years ago and MDD not playing at all the last ten games last year, this team sure knows how to build up their kids.
Tejada will be back because the Mets needs insurance at that position while they go after bigger fish in the OF. If by some miracle a SS is acquired through trades, then Tejada might get the boot.