Next up in our projection review series – just to see how we did and how wacky some of our projections were – is Juan Lagares. Lagares opened a lot of eyes in 2013 with his outstanding defense, but no one was quite sure what he would do with the bat. The least optimistic of us saw a Cesar Geronimo-type player, with less foot speed. Here’s what our projection looked like:
PA – 486
AVG – .255
OBP – .305
SLG – .375
HR – 6
RBI – 45
UZR – 14.4
Here’s how Lagares actually did — over the course of a mere 116 games played — with the best and worst individual projections among our group.
PA – 452
Best – Stack (450)
Worst – Vasile (650)
AVG – .281
Best – McCarthy (.276)
Worst – Joura (.222)
OBP – .321
Best – Koehler (.325)
Worst – Joura (.260)
SLG – .382
Best – Hangley (.380) — no applause, please…
Worst – Kolton (.433)
HR – 4
Best – Hangley, O’Malley, Vasile (4) – Wow, I’m good!
Worst – McCarthy (11)
RBI – 47
Best – Flattery, McCarthy and Stack (48)
Worst – Kolton (28)
UZR – 18.6
Best – Flattery (17.6)
Worst – Hangley (8.5) – Nobody’s perfect…
Simply put, Juan Lagares was the Mets’ best position player in 2014.
His 5.5 bWAR led all position players on the team – granted much of that was defense driven – but his offense was a pleasant surprise. He outstripped his 2013 in hits, doubles, RBI and steals, while cutting his strikeouts from 96 to 87. Heck, he even improved on his UZR. If that trend continues, the Mets will have a fine all-around player on their hands. In fact, he may have hit just enough to win a Gold Glove in the NL outfield.
While it may be a tad early to punch his ticket as a perennial All-Star, the Mets may have found themselves their centerfielder for the next decade – a worthy heir to guys like Tommie Agee, Del Unser, Mookie Wilson and Lenny Dykstra. While it doesn’t look as if he’ll become Carlos Beltran – he doesn’t project to have that kind of power/speed combo – Terry Collins did well inserting him in the leadoff spot and encouraging him to use those wheels.
Can’t wait to see what he looks like over the course of a truly full season.
Brian Joura contributed to this piece.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.
“In fact, he may have hit just enough to win a Gold Glove in the NL outfield.”
The “Palmeiro Effect”? In 1999 Palmeiro played 28 games at first base versus 130 as a DH….. He won a Gold Glove on the strength of 47 homers and 148 rbi’s
“You could Look it up!”, said Casey Stengel
Palmeiro? I was thinking Jeter, but whatever…
Ha, Joura. Ha.
I missed badly on his AVG but was exactly on target with his isolated OBP and SLG.
If only my crystal ball would have predicted a .341 BABIP…
Some day you will like Lagares Brian!
It’s not a matter of me not liking him. I’ve been effusive about my praise for him defensively, especially charging in on balls. I like the fact that he seemed to be more aggressive on the basepaths the last month that he played. I just want to see something from him besides singles offensively.
BA is the new OBP. You’ve heard it here first!
Wins are the new WAR
Going into the season, many would have been satisfied if Lagares performed to the staff predictions. Lagares exceeded it and is now the established center fielder going forward. Way to go Juan!
Lagares started the season as the lead off hitter until his June injury. He did not get back to the lead off spot until August 28th. Why? TC caught a gale wind with the Granderson lead off move but when it fizzled he did not change course. Lagares should have been in that spot at least after August 8th,(if not sooner) right after Harper put the dagger in any hopes for the 2014 season. TC waited three more weeks before inserting Lagares back into the lead off role. It is just another time when TC did not utilize a player properly in the batting order. Once there, he was “ordered” to run and proceeded to show he had that ability also. Lagares exceeded the prediction.
Charlie,
It’s nice to see that someone remembers Del Unser.
[…] Juan Lagares was the Mets’ best position player in 2014, Lucas Duda was a close second, and by far the happiest surprise. Firmly, […]