Mets360 2014 Projection Review: Lucas Duda And Ike Davis

Next up in our projection review series, we’ll take a look at first base.

When 2014 dawned, the situation was murky, to say the least. Projections could only be made based on strong opinion, rather than history. Nobody had any idea how much playing time was going to be doled out between the nominal incumbent Ike Davis and his supposed understudy, Lucas Duda. Even the most seasoned expert couldn’t judge playing time for Davis, seeing as he hadn’t had a completely healthy season since his first. All anyone knew about Duda was that he couldn’t be any worse at first than he had been in the outfield. And, oh, yeah, he might hit you a couple of homers. The “traditional” projection systems – OLIVER and STEAMER, anyway – thought Davis would win the job. ZiPS was putting its money on Duda.

Here’s what all three thought about Ike Davis:

System	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBIs
Steamer	409	.233	.334	.430	17	51
Oliver	600	.216	.327	.398	22	72
ZiPS	445	.232	.330	.424	18	62

And here’s the Lucas Duda projection:

System	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBIs
Steamer	324	.231	.327	.391	12	41
Oliver	600	.217	.327	.372	18	65
ZiPS	522	.239	.335	.412	18	61

We even put in a question as to which one would still be on the team at the end of the year, because we all knew somebody had to go. As a result, projections became problematic, and no one should be taken to task for getting something wrong.

That being said, here’s what they looked like for each guy:

Ike Davis

PA – 426
AVG – .238
OBP – .335
SLG – .411
HR – 18
RBI – 62
Will he still be a Met at the end of the year? – No

Lucas Duda

PA – 377
AVG – .243
OBP – .349
SLG – .420
HR – 15
RBI – 54
Still a Met? – Yes

I think we all know what happened next. Everyone who answered “Yes” on Lucas Duda, raise your hand. Ike Davis was shuffled over to Pittsburgh before the season was three weeks old. His final numbers – split between the Mets and Pirates — looked like this:

PA – 360
AVG – .233
OBP – .344
SLG – .378
HR – 11
RBI – 51
Still a Met? – No

Duda stayed, and here’s what the Mets got:

PA – 596
AVG – .253
OBP – .349
SLG – .481
HR – 30
RBI – 92
Still a Met? – Yes

It sure looks like GM Sandy Alderson got this one right. We, however, did not. Duda had a monster year – by Mets’ standards, anyway. No one at Mets360 predicted 30 homers. No one at Mets360 predicted 20 homers. No one at Mets360 predicted more than 77 RBI. Our only correct call was who would still be here.

If Juan Lagares was the Mets’ best position player in 2014, Lucas Duda was a close second, and by far the happiest surprise. Firmly, finally entrenched at first base, Duda was able to relax and overcome the crippling self-doubt that plagued him his previous three years in the big-leagues. He will be counted on to be at least one source of the power this team will so desperately need if it has any hope of contention in 2015.

Let’s face it: the Duda abides.

Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley.