Next up in our projection series is Juan Lagares. This time last year, Lagares hardly registered in the minds of most Mets fans. He was coming off a so-so season in Double-A and he seemed like a guy who could hit for some average but not do much else. But the planets aligned right for him and once given a shot, Lagares definitely made his mark.
Scouting reports were lukewarm on his defense but Lagares was outstanding with the glove last year. He made many highlight reel defensive plays and he appeared to be a guy who grew up playing the position, not one who converted to center field from shortstop. Fans loved his defense almost as much as Gary Cohen. The team’s pitchers were pretty thrilled, too.
Unfortunately, outside of a hot stretch in the middle of the year, Lagares was not very good offensively. He was still a tremendous net positive in 2013. But it remains to be seen how patient the manager will be if his star defensive center fielder flirts with the Mendoza Line in 2014. The Mets figure to start the year with three center fielders in the outfield. If Lagares gets off to a slow start with the bat, it’s not impossible the Mets will look to shift one of their CFers in exile back to the middle of the outfield and give Lagares a seat on the bench.
Of course as a rookie last year, there’s still reason for optimism that his offense will improve in 2014. Lagares had a strong year at the plate in 2011 and he hit very well last year in his brief time in Las Vegas. So, are we bullish or bearish on Lagares? Here’s how we see him doing in 2014:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | UZR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 525 | .255 | .305 | .375 | 8 | 52 | 16.0 |
| Flattery | 460 | .267 | .308 | .375 | 10 | 48 | 17.6 |
| Hangley | 510 | .257 | .312 | .380 | 4 | 52 | 8.5 |
| Joura | 345 | .222 | .260 | .325 | 5 | 35 | 10.5 |
| Koehler | 485 | .275 | .325 | .345 | 6 | 37 | 20.0 |
| Kolton | 321 | .242 | .342 | .433 | 3 | 28 | 8.6 |
| McCarthy | 585 | .276 | .311 | .402 | 11 | 48 | 21.1 |
| O’Malley | 520 | .256 | .295 | .360 | 4 | 39 | 21.0 |
| Rogan | 528 | .245 | .335 | .375 | 5 | 53 | 28.8 |
| Schubert | 520 | .267 | .299 | .352 | 8 | 55 | 12.3 |
| Stack | 450 | .245 | .303 | .389 | 7 | 48 | 12.0 |
| Vasile | 650 | .240 | .305 | .340 | 4 | 40 | 12.2 |
| Walendin | 545 | .247 | .292 | .360 | 5 | 45 | 14.4 |
For the most part, our writers are bullish. Eight out of 13 think he will surpass 500 PA and 12 think he will surpass last year’s .633 OPS. Dan Kolton projects a .775 OPS yet only 321 PA, which is the highest OPS and the fewest trips to the plate. Joe Vasile forecasts 650 PA despite a .645 OPS. Only one outfielder since 1990 had that many PA and that poor of an OPS – 37-year-old Ichiro Suzuki in 2011, when he posted a .645 OPS in 721 PA. Even Jeff Francoeur put up a .653 OPS in 653 PA in 2008.
Here’s what the group as a whole projects for Lagares in 2014:
Overall we have modest gains across the board in offense and a significant drop on defense. A 14.4 UZR is still a great mark and Mets fans should be happy if Lagares delivers that in 2014. Since UZR was first tracked in 2002, only Andruw Jones has posted back-to-back seasons of 15.0 or greater as a center fielder. One year after establishing the record for the highest UZR by a CFer with a 31.0 mark in 2009, Franklin Gutierrez followed up with a 5.9 mark in 2010.
Back to offense, here’s our forecast along with what the other projection systems available on FanGraphs predict for Lagares this year:
| System | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 496 | .255 | .305 | .375 | 6 | 45 |
| Steamer | 431 | .254 | .295 | .365 | 6 | 39 |
| Oliver | 600 | .261 | .299 | .357 | 6 | 53 |
| ZiPS | 564 | .254 | .291 | .360 | 6 | 53 |
No matter which system you prefer, they all see the same season for Lagares. The big difference is playing time. Steamer thinks this level of production will merit 431 PA, or roughly what he had in 2013. ZiPS, which hasn’t been accused of being optimistic towards the Mets the past two seasons, thinks it will result in 564.
Check back Monday for our next entry in the projection series.
I think Juan will do better than that – he hit well in winter ball until he sprianed his knee, and I think a lot of last year’s so-so offense was an initial adjustment, especially the weak start. After his really weak April and May, he hit .255 despite a bad Sept. For 2014, I see .275 or so, .310 – .315 on base, and about 45 extra base hits in 550 PA – and great defense. And some speed. Overall, a very solid year from Juan coming up.
Lagares gets about an even amount of benefit from range, and from his throwing arm.
The former will decline drastically next year; it’s inevitable, playing in an outfield with two other quality fielders.
The latter will decline, simply because other teams will stop running on him.
That is a hard metric to come up with – it is available – and most Mets fans won’t see the value of Lagares when his defensive wins shared goes down to lower single digits (which is where I would put him).
Bottom line is I think Lagares loses a huge amount of his value because of signing two other CFers. By mid-May, we’re going to be looking at alternatives out there.
Shame.
I’m sorry, I meant to say the hard metric to come up with is runners that didn’t advance because of Lagares’ arm.
Correct…. if he plays, less runners will test him. That has value…unexpressed by any stat I know, but it is valuable. Clemente had a great arm….very similar mobility and ability to charge the ball as Lagares does (former infielders do this well). Nobody ran on Clemente.
I don’t know if Lagares derived a lot of value covering up for weak outfielders in the corners last year. It certainly sounds reasonable so let’s say that it’s true.
The idea is to get value/production wherever you can get it. If you have slugs in the OF – then a guy who can run down balls outside of his zone is very valuable. But if you have thoroughbreds in the corners than a CF with superior range becomes less valuable/productive.
So, what gives us the most value? Does an E.Young-C.Young-Granderson OF give us more production than a Granderson-Lagares-Young alignment? I don’t think anyone knows at this time.
Lagares earned the right to be the Opening Day CF in 2014. But he’s going to have to pick up the pace offensively to keep that spot. I love watching him charge balls in the outfield and seeing all the ground he can cover going back on balls hit in the alleys. But if we have a guy in C. Young who can play a solid CF, it may be better for the team to have a superior offensive player out there.
I am constantly stunned by how much people talk about Juan’s bat and his need to pick up his offense next season. If everyone is still optimistic about D’arnaud after his debut last year, I see no reason why pessimism rules the day towards Juan’s offensive ability. He is a future top of the order stud (if not this year, than next). He has adjusted and hit well at each level, and proved over the Summer he could hit with regular playing time. Than the league adjusted and he got fatigued, but he is a proven hard worker (remember what he was doing during the all-star break? watching video and improving his wrist control). But the biggest reason I fail to understand the negativity surrounding Juan’s offense is this:
2011 .236 .331 .420 .751
2012 .231 .311 .434 .745
2013 .200 .280 .379 .659
Those are Chris Young’s last 3 seasons. Yes he hit a few homers and has more power than Juan, but good grief. 7.5 mil? What will Juan cost? 500k? And how about this? And Juan isn’t on the team to hit homers. He’s on the team to provide MVP-caliber defense, and hit the ball in the gap – a skill he has, which will improve over time. And how about this:
2011 .262 .364 .552 .916
2012 .232 .319 .492 .811
2013 .229 .317 .407 .723
Granderson’s last 3 seasons (yes, I know 2013 was cut short). And obviously he provides far more power – but that’s what his purpose on the team is. If we’re talking about Batting Average, which is really all the Juan needs to worry about, then I don’t think it’s even a question which player among these three will end the season ranked highest in that category. My prediction:
.270 .330 .380 .710 for Juan. Probably puts him in the top 10 CF in all of baseball.
Pessimism rules due to the fact that he was awful with the bat last year. He had a .633 OPS which was the third-worst total among 72 OFers with at least 400 PA. Of the two that were worse, Vernon Wells has been released and the Braves wish they didn’t have the multi-year obligation to BJ Upton.
As for d’Arnaud — if he hits that bat in a meaningful sample size, then we’ll be concerned. If he gets 400-plus PA in the majors, I’d be shocked if he didn’t put up a .700+ OPS, which is a strong mark for a catcher.
As for Young – did you know that he was hurt the past two seasons? If he’s healthy and puts up a .633 OPS – we’ll all agree it was an awful signing. But if he’s healthy, he won’t do that.
Finally, we no longer place a great deal of emphasis on batting average. It’s been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that OBP is much more important as it correlates better to run scoring.
If Lagares’ value is decreased by bringing in two quality fielders on either side, wouldn’t it make sense to play Granderson and Young a little closer to the lines, and let Lagares run down balls in the gaps again? Having one of the best defensive outfields in the NL, especially after last year, is a positive to me no matter how to slice it.
Lagares was named DWL Rookie of the Year today…
I hear Wily Peralta was devestated
Another reason for optimism, is his intangibles/character. There has been plenty of reported positive feedback on his work ethic and determination. He also steadily improved through the course of last season. I think he’s asset that will steadily progress.
I am a glass half full guy, however
Let’s go Juan!
2013 NL CF AVG: 329/394/722
I would be very happy if Lagares achieves the staff consensus. I believe he will because he has some success in the minors in 2011 and 2011 so there is some offensive potential.
He also needs to work on his running game and turn his speed into an offensive weapon.
I love watching him play center field but there has to be some improvement over his 2013 offensive numbers.If he regresses there are three other center field options to put him on the bench.
The failure to field a competent bat at SS hurts Lagares, since I don’t believe Sandy feels the Mets can carry two black holes in the lineup. I personally really like Lagares, but I keep thinking we’ll be seeing a lot of Chris Young in CF. I’m mostly concerned about the atmosphere surrounding Lagares; I don’t see them as being patient or supportive. He’ll be looking over his shoulder all season.
I agree that the Mets have a recent history of not being patient and supportive of some of their players. However, Juan Lagares would probably be the last person I would hold up as an example of this behavior.
Collin Cowgill was demoted after 52 PA. After 51 PA, Lagares had .430 OPS and he still got 370 more PA on this year. The Mets released Cowgill after he had a two-hit game. After his last two-hit game of the season on 9/11 – Lagares got 16 more starts and put up a .103/.159/.155 line in 65 PA.
I don’t think they’ve been particularly supportive of Josh Satin or Zach Lutz. They certainly were not supportive of Anthony Recker. I’m sure Andrew Brown fans would say something similar.
Lagares had the majority of the 2013 season to show his stuff. He’s going to start out 2014 as the starter. If he fails to hit and gets yanked from the lineup, he’ll have much less of a complaint than a bunch of other teammates as far as getting a shot at meaningful playing time.
My UZR projection sticks out like a sore thumb there, huh? I admittedly did not consider that teams would stop running on him as much moving forward. Since UZR contains an ARM element (of which Lagares derived a ton of UZR value), my projection may be way high.
We’ll see how it all plays out.
Dare to dream big!
I see all of the PA for Lagares because quite frankly, I think his glove is enough to keep him in the lineup every day. Considering what the other options are (a similarly bat-challenged Matt den Dekker, and not much else) I see Lagares playing 150 games.
I wasn’t able to get my projection in, but it would have been right along with the average. His PA will be based upon his production and how well guys like Chris Young and EY are playing. If you sprinkle Duda into the OF picture as well, that further complicates the matter.
My gut tells me he’ll beat the projection, but we’ll see.
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