As of right now it looks like Sandy Alderson is going to hold onto Daniel Murphy until at least the trading deadline. Murphy would likely not be in a deal for major league ready players, but more likely minor league pitchers. A good comparison would be the Mets pitchers Michael Fulmer and Gabriel Ynoa and possibly a young position player. Murphy is good player hitting .291, .286, and .289 in the past three years and appearing in at least 140 games each of those seasons. He leaves a little to be desired on the defensive side, but he is serviceable at second base and profiles even better if he were able to go back to his natural position at third. If he does get traded the Mets have a few way that they could handle the middle infield.
Starting in Triple-A Vegas this year will be Matt Reynolds and Dilson Herrera who both will likely see time in the major leagues this season. Herrera, a second baseman, came over in from the Pirates at the end of 2013 and Reynolds the Mets drafted in 2012 and has been a shortstop since coming to the Mets farm system. Each of them spent about 20-30 games at the other position in 2014 as the Mets try and figure out what they are doing with their infield. Herrera spent some time in New York because he was going to be added to the 40-Man roster at the end of the season to avoid the Rule V Draft and Daniel Murphy went down with an injury. In his 18 big league games he only hit .220, but did manage to drive three balls out of the park. At the time Herrera was dominating in Binghamton after already being promoted from St. Lucie, he was hitting .340/.406/.560 in 61 games. The Mets and the fan base should look forward to Herrera having a big year in the hitter’s haven of Las Vegas and forcing the Mets to make a move.
Reynolds was no slouch with the bat last year either. He did not hit all that well in his first two seasons in the Mets organization, but still progressed through the system. Then after the 2013 season, he made some adjustments to his swing and came out hot in Binghamton. Reynolds hit .343/.405/.454 between his time in Double-A and Triple-A. He does not have as much potential for power as Herrera, who is still only 20 years old. If Reynolds continues to hit well and walk consistently then he would be very valuable to this Mets or another team at shortstop considering his defensive value.
The Mets also have some middle-infielders already on the 25-Man roster in Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada. Flores is pegged as the Opening Day shortstop barring a trade or horrible spring training. Tejada is apparently still in the running for the job as well even after being given multiple opportunities to prove he should be shortstop, but could not solidified it. Some were surprised when the Mets decided to tender Tejada’s contract for the 2015 season. He is expected to make around $1.7 million through his first year of arbitration this season. He is a nice backup middle-infielder, but that could easily be handled by Reynolds this season. In a worst case scenario Eric Campbell the outfielder, infielder, and emergency third string catcher could start at either second or short for a brief amount of time.
When the Mets eventually decide what they are doing with Murphy they have a few configurations up the middle to consider. Do they bring up Herrera and keep Flores at shortstop? Do they bring up Reynolds and slide Flores over to second base? Will they give Tejada one last shot at shortstop and move Flores to second base? Any way they go with, it is unlikely Murphy takes the field for the Mets in 2016 with many preferring Flores not at shortstop and Herrera waiting in the wings as well.
I think Flores can stick at ss for a few yrs. Don’t forget we were after Jhonny peralta last yr to be our ss. Well Jhonny is a big stocky hit first limited defensive ss. Sound familiar? The only difference between Flores and Jhonny is that Flores is 9 yrs younger and making 1/100th of what Jhonny is. This whole anxiety about Wilmer is media fueled nonsense. Is he Ozzie smith? Nope. But if he can hit 290 with 20+ hrs, who cares. Jeter was a bad ss the last 10 yrs and yanks still managed to win.. With a more competent 2nd baseman like Herrera making up the lack of range, we’ll be fine. Offense is always this team’s problem and Wilmer provides it just look at his excellent minor league numbers where he was about 4-5 yrs younger than the rest of the leagues he played in.
“Terry is The Worst”– How can you say the *only difference* between Flores and Perraulta is the 9 years separation in their age? Perraulta has over 1500 hits and a 760 career OPS **In the Major Leagues** Their age difference is the least significant difference between these two players. Perraulta is nobody’s Gold-Glover, but he’s fielded the position, regularly, at the Major League Level- Flores hasn’t held a glove at shortstop, regularly, at any level after A-ball.
Trading Murphy now would be a big mistake. It would show the Mets are not serious as far as contending. Rushing Dilson Herrerra is a big mistake. He showed he has a lot of potential, but nowhere is ready for the Majors, in his call up last fall. Murphy is the only “non if” as a hitter on this team. For 3 years he has been constituent, no other hitter has this. It would be a sad joke to trade him for the type of players you mention..
If they did trade Murph before the start of the season they could always put Tejada at short and Flores at second or bring up Reynolds until they believe Herrera is ready. Murphy is a very good player, but he is not a star player. I don’t think they Mets are going to get a lot of him with the amount of time left on his contract. The only two major league spots the Mets are even looking at upgrading at externally are shortstop and a lefty reliever. He could go for a lefty reliever, but if they can get some prospects that are going to develop and be worth something in a few years then that’s the way I think they should go.
I agree Murph will be gone by 2016 I don’t see the mets trading him if we are at all in contention. They will make him a qualifying offer and take the draft pick. If by the trading deadline we are out of it absolutely they’ll trade him for the best available deal. So if he goes what happens?
I think that answer depends entirely on SS. If no one is acquired it hinges on Florase. If he makes the plays at Short I look for Herrera to come up if he can’t stick at SS then he’ll slide to 2nd and Reynolds gets the call for SS. Of course injuries could change the calculus.
If as I expect we are in the hunt after murph leaves in the off season if Floras has Stuck at SS he Reynolds and and Herrera all make the team next season and in 16 and in spring we find out who’s in the middle and who’s on the bench.
I think the Team views Campbell as more of a backup or platoon corner infielder so for me he dose not enter into the discussion of the middle.
If the Mets upgrade at SS then they should trade Murphy and let Flores and Herrera battle it out in spring training for the second base position. Murphy is in his last year of his contract.Flores is out of options so the Mets need to know what they have in Flores because Murphy won’t be here in 2016. Tulo would be an upgrade and Murphy’s salary would offset a part of his cost. Brad Miller, although not as good as Murphy, would be a team upgrade in that a Miller/Flores keystone combo is better defensively than Flores/Murphy and the offensive regression from Miller/Flores may not be too significant. The other less popular option is to sign Drew with the money you save when you trade Murphy. This would be a stronger defensive upgrade and offensively may not hurt because Drew has a career .747 OPS and as recently as 2013 a .777 OPS with a 3.4 fWAR .
If the Mets don’t upgrade at SS then the Mets should hold onto Murphy and reevaluate before the trade deadline this summer.
I agree. Murphy won’t be moved unless a change occurs at SS. If Taylor or Miller comes to the Mets in the offseason, Murphy will be traded. If Tulo is acquired, it depends on who is traded for Tulo as Flores could be a part of that deal.
I am pretty sure that the Mets will deal him, no matter what their situation, by the trade deadline at the latest. Murphy won’t finish 2015 as a Met.
Everything would be dependent on the Mets first getting an upgrade at SS. If your trading Murphy to a team that wants and has a need for a 2nd baseman then you do it unless the Mets are leading the division or are within a few games. I think we can all agree Sandy has no intention of signing Murphy to a long term contract, I would imagine Murphy would draw some interest from teams in need of offense..The Mets have an abundance of players and options that will be far more more productive defensively. Murphy’s problem is he’s a good hitter without a position, He doesn’t produce enough power stats to be considered a DH. While defensively he’s made great strides he still lacks the natural instincts for the position and sometimes is vulnerable to a bonehead play that just leaves you wondering what was he thinking.
Alderson and the Wilpon’s are desperate for a winning season. Until Wright shows up in spring training and proves the shoulder is healed there is no way Murph gets traded unless some GM enters a into a state of complete panic because of injury and makes an offer that can’t be refused. He and Flores give them the flexibility potentially along with Reynolds and Hererra to have Wright disappoint and still be able to muster enough offense to compete in 2015.
I agree because they are desperate He will stick with the team as long as they are in the race. Like I said the second we are out of it , if we are (I think we will be in the WC race all year), then he gets traded. If we are playing “meaningful games” in september they will give the qualifying offer in the off season and then take the draft pick.
I agree except for the QA, I don’t see the Mets taking the chance he accepts. Unless of course Wright’s shoulder is still a question mark going into next off season. And if that is the case then we have much bigger problems. But with the organizational depth we have a 2nd I don’t see them offering a QA under ordinary circumstances.
FA 2nd basemen next year has only 2 bonified Starter in Howie Kendrick and Murph his agent would be criminally stupid t take the qualifying offer they will make one and he will decline it giving the mets a draft pick. The other free agent 2B next year are Marco Scutaro who just had surgery again, Willie Bloomquist not a starter, Sean Rodriguez bench guy and ryan roberts. Murph will get a big multi year deal some place he is not taking a QO
And if? he takes the offer the Mets are stuck and will have very little flexibility financially.to make any upgrade wherever they made be needed. Murphy would be only one year older and still have the same potential market the following season. It’s a dangerous thing to make an assumption. It may backfire on you. I don’t think Alderson is willing to take that gamble.
Its not a gamble as it won’t happen but lets assume arguendo that you offer and Murphy accepts. It will be a one year deal probably in the 14m range you could ether start him or trade him. Nothing says you can’t trade a play on a qualifying offer. So it is no real risk.
But I’ve said twice now it wont happen here are the reasons
1) its one year with no real protection
2) he will be entering his year 31 season next year will be his last best shot at a big multi year deal no one passes that up
3) The relative lack of 2nd basemen on the market guarantees he’ll get at least 11m per season over 4-6 years
4) he may get more for one year but he would loss any control over what ity he is playing in because the mets could trade him any place and likely would.
5) Under this CBA no one has accepted a QO and a 2nd baseman who is arguably the best or at minimum number 2 on the market would be nuts to be the first
6) Reports are Howie Kendrick and the Dodgers may sign an extension and if that happens he would be the only true starter on the market
7) Murphy’s versatility makes him an option for more teams then just those looking for a 2nd basemen
Anderson will offer a Qualifying offfer there is no risk of him taking it.
That depends on “your” view as Murphy being the “best” available second base man. I wonder if other GM’s feel the same way. I do recall Murphy being discussed last Winter meetings in trade talks. Yes there is no denying Murphy is a good hitter. But defensively? Versatility? In what?
He can play 2nd,3rd,1st or I suppose in the AL DH though I don’t view him as your traditional DH. However since I have a pathological hatred of the DH I may not be the best to judge that particular position
Sorry JC but there is no way Sandy can afford to make Murphy a qualifying offer. By next year that offer is going to be in the 15 million dollar+ range for 1 season. Cheaper options within the organization who are better defensively The Mets can apply that 8 million towards an upgrade at SS or LF. Herrera would be a better defender at league minimum There are teams out there who are willing to sign a good hitter.who are question marks defensively. Murph is better suited for an AL team where he can DH and play first or second base occasionally minimizing his liability on defense and maximizing what he does best.
sorry pete I disagree I think the only way you don’t offer him one is if he is injured this season. If he is healthy and you fail to offer him your negligent in the job
That’s why you look to trade him for an upgrade at SS. Where the Mets have far more question marks than second base where they have plenty of options within the organization.So much depends on the Mets being in the wildcard race. So for now Murphy is here. We’ll see. As you say I just hope he will stay healthy. After all it is his walk year and how well he performs will dictate how much he can expect this coming off season
I wonder how many teams view Murphy as a bona fide second base man outside of New York?
I suspect given the scarcity of 2nd basemen in free agency next season any team that needs one
JC qualifying offers for 2015 is going to be 15.3 million dollars. You can Google qualifying offers MLB. The 14 million you mentioned was for 2014
Even if it is 15m I’d still QO Murphy barring injury because for the reasons stated before I simply do not see him being the first ever player to except a QO
He’s not Michael Young who could play multiple positions well. Defensively Murphy to be honest is barely competent. Granted he works his butt off and gives the team 100% effort. It’s just sometimes he makes you shake your head with questionable decision making. I like Murphy (offensively and his character). It’s not his fault the Mets are in such a dire financial situation. But the Mets promoting Herrera in September speaks volumes to me.
One of the best comparisons to Murphy is Martin Prado, except Prado is better defensively and more versatile. They have very similar career statistics. Prado is receiving 11M a year and even considering inflation Murphy should “hope” to get a 3-4 year contract at $11M a year. He would be a fool to turn down a $16M QO and the Mets would be foolish offering it. In the recent Prado trade, complicated by other players, one may be able to decipher Murphy’s trade value but it is not as high as most Met fans believe.
(The Murphy/Prado comparison is from an article I read and not an original thought)
the fundamental differences are that to my knowledge Martin has never been a free agent. On the open market theses things tend to explode. It also matters who is available at your position when you are a free agent. A scarcity at 2nd base is likely to create inflationary pressure on the yearly number. Further the sheer amount of dollars present in the game also tends to lead to rais the coast of contracts.
That said lets for the sake of argument say every thing I’ve said is wrong and every thing you all have said about money is right then we operate in the following universe:
1) Murph can chose a one year deal and all the risk that asumes for 15m at age 31 with a team he knows is ready to move on
2) or he can sign a 3-4 year deal ranging from 33-44 mil at age 31 getting more money with grater security with a team he knows will be committing to him.
Life their are 2 or 3 teams looking for 2nd base he could see the years and dollars expand exponentially. Under this collective bargaining agreement he would be the first to accept a QO young was under the old one but assuming I’m wrong about that he was traded to philly when he accepted Texases QO so get the pick or make the trade.
Again all of this pre supposes health but a healthy Murphy would not be looking for a one year deal. Cuddyer was the first player even rumoured to be considering taking the QO which is why the mets moved so quickly to sign him. I’d wager you would here simeler rumores from murph’s camp but no I still dont see him taking 1 year.
I’ve assumed your facts arguendo and I still think he turns us down but if I’m wrong you trade him at the winter meetings if I’m write your coming off a year in contention, because we all agree he’ll get dealt if we fall out of it and you make the trade in the off season instead of during it. If I’m right we get a draft pick.
False Metsense.
90% of players in Murphy’s situation would take a 3/33 deal and probably 99% if it’s a 4/44 deal.
Players hate hate playing on a 1 year deal unless they have to rebuild value after a down year/injury/bad market.
I would be totally surprised if the financially restricted Mets gave Murphy a QO especially with the minor league depth at the position. Name, history favors your response that Murphy would turn down a one year commitment at $16m and settle for 3/33 because players his age don’t walk away from another guaranteed $17m. So I retract that he would be a fool.
If the Mets are not in contention for a wildcard 1) Terry Collins is gone 2) attendance takes another hit 3) The front office is in an unenviable position of having no leverage over any team that may be interested in Murphy at the trading deadline. Teams will simply out wait Alderson and offer players of lesser value than what SA is used to receiving.for compensation.
the trade deadline and the 2nd wild card will rob teams of the time and or leverage. As we have seen the 2nd wild card makes for a lot more buyers and far fewer sellers then in previous years. If the mets fall out of contention they will be selling both Murph and Calon and both, again assumeing health will be dealt for surprising returns.
Now in truth I believe that prediction to be irrelevant because i believe we will win between 85-90 games and contend for the 2nd wild card meaning we won’t move murph. I do believe even in contention they will move a healthy calon between the all star break and trading deadline.
This is because Thor will be called up when they sit Mat mid season for some strats to make sure he is available for Sep. then when Matt comes back Thor will take Calon’s spot. I’ve explained that thought in another discussion but I figured I’d put it here to incase anyone wants to tell me this is crazy too. (:
One problem with your thesis JC is that Thor has never pitched more than the 133 innings he pitched in Las Vegas last year. So if you were to go with the natural progression in innings per year Thor caps out at about 160. If the Mets are in the race for a wildcard it would be very imprudent of them to ask him to pitch in high pressure must win games. Also with many other teams in the NL improving their lineups with acquisitions via Free Agency or by trades.the Mets need for everything to fall into place for 90 wins. JC until this team shows that they can win at home consistently 90 wins is a nice aspiration. If they can just play .500 against the Nat’s then I would say the Mets have an excellent shot at the second wild card.