Mets360 Top 50 Prospects: Players 10-9

Now we’re at it, the top 10 prospects in the Mets system. In case you missed any of the other installments, please take a look at them at: 50-48, 47-45, 44-42, 41-39, 38-36, 35-33, 32-30, 29-27, 26-24, 23-21, 20-18, 17-15 and 14-11. Next up is:

10 – Marcos Molina

Molina was signed as a 17 year old in January of 2012. Molina was one of seven  international signee’s  that year for totals of more than six figures in bonuses, was not the one who got the most fanfare and was one of three pitchers that profiled in a similar way: good size, solid velocity for their ages and some secondary pitches in development. Nothing jumped out about Molina at the time, but since then things have changed.

The first thing that changed was Molina himself. When he signed, Molina was 6’2” and a wire thin 170 pounds. Before starting the season, he had grown an inch and packed on 18 pounds of muscle. In his first foray into professional baseball, Molina stayed in the Dominican League and held his own, posting a 3.58 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP over 55.1 innings while pitching at nearly two years younger than the average player.  His other numbers didn’t stand out as he only struck out 6.5 batters per nine innings while walking 2.2, but he was someone to keep an eye on.

Molina made no appearances on prospect lists after 2012, but was brought stateside to pitch in the Gulf Coast league. Like many international players first appearances in the United States, Molina wasn’t very successful.  Over 53.1 innings, Molina posted a 4.39 ERA and a 1.312 WHIP with a mildly increased walk rate, but also a slightly increased strike out rate. He was over two and a half years younger than his competition though and showed something as prospect lists began to take notice. Although his name wasn’t necessarily making it onto the list, Molina was being noted as a potential player to watch or a break out candidate for 2014.

Transitioned to Brooklyn in 2014, Molina did break out and in a big way. Molina utterly dominated the New York Penn League, while pitching at two and a half years younger than the competition. Over 76.1 innings, Molina posted a 1.77 ERA and a 0.838 WHIP while striking out 10.7 batters per nine innings, a serious leap from his career numbers to that point. While his walk rate stayed about the same the increased strike out rate helped him allow a miniscule amount of 5.4 hits per nine innings, as well as have multiple people note while watching him that when batters hit the ball, it didn’t tend to go far.

Such dominant numbers made Molina very easy to notice during the summer of 2014 and he quickly jumped up prospect lists, including being named one of top ten prospects in the New York Penn League as well as in the Mets system. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Molina cracks the top 100 prospects list in all of Baseball when those start finding their way to us in the early parts of 2015.

So what is behind the dominance? One is that Molina continues to fill in his body, looking more like a stout 200 pounder now than the 170 pound string bean he was as a 17 year old. His work ethic has also gone without question to this point, which is easily seen in his body type and reflected in his productivity. But one can’t be this successful with a projectable body type and work ethic alone. Molina’s stuff is terrific as well.

Molina sports a fastball that sits in the low 90’s for most of a game, but can be pushed into the 94 to 96 range. It’s not just the velocity that makes it a plus pitch however, it’s the movement. When Molina’s fastball sits in the low 90’s, it has a cutter like look to it with late movement that allows for missed bats, even with the lower velocity. When it sits in the mid-90’s, it still retains some movement, enough that it makes it hard for batters to catch up to, despite not having elite velocity in the upper-90’s like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. The issues with the fastball though are command oriented. Molina’s delivery is inconsistent, which leads to him sometimes having issues with the fastball in the batting zone. At his level, this isn’t a problem, but as he advances through the system, it could lead to either more walks as he deals with players with a better understanding of the strike zone or harder hit balls when his fastball bleeds back over the plate. We’ll get back to his delivery in a moment.

If he just had a good fastball though, he wouldn’t be ranked this high and wouldn’t have such a high ceiling as a starting pitcher. Molina potentially has three other future plus pitches in his repertoire. Molina was noted for his changeup prior to 2014, but was noted to be using it less during the season. This could simply have been Molina working on other off speed offerings, so there isn’t much that can be read into that until he is seen further next season. He also was throwing a slider and curveball last season, of which the slider appeared to be the better pitch at this time. It’s a hard slider, sitting in the high 80’s with solid movement, but can get a little slurvy at times. His curve ball is behind the slider as he’s still working on not changing his arm speed to throw it. But to be 19, with a plus fastball and the potential for three other plus pitches is astounding and shows why Molina could be the next big time pitching prospect in the Mets system.

The main problems aren’t stuff or control oriented, it’s his delivery. Molina has solid size, but doesn’t use it. He has a high effort delivery that puts all of the strain on his right arm due to poor use of his legs and lower body. The problem with this is obvious for a starting pitcher. If we were talking about a relief pitcher, the issues wouldn’t be a problem, but when a pitcher needs to throw seven innings instead of two, putting that much effort on his arm will eventually lead to problems. Molina is the classic example of a high ceiling, low floor player. He could be an ace in the making, a pitcher that has injuries that never allow him to reach his potential or somewhere in the middle. It’s just too early to tell and he’s so young that it’s impossible to extrapolate.

All of this doesn’t take away the excitement this young pitcher generates when scouts look at him. The hope is that his work ethic will lead to a better understanding of his body and how it will help him long term become the pitcher he can be. Just think about it, he throws 90 to 95 with decent control now, without using his lower half. Imagine if he could tinker those mechanics just a little bit to use his legs. We could be talking about a young pitcher with four plus pitches, excellent control and a fastball that can touch the high 90’s with ease. That echo’s Harvey and that’s a pretty great comp for the potential of a pitcher that is only 19 years old.

9 – Amed Rosario

Rosario was signed as a 17 year old in 2012 for a Mets record 1.75 million dollar signing bonus. The lanky 17 year old was considered a risk, a player with all of the tools in the world and a tremendously high ceiling, but also the chance to be a total bust. It’s hard to tell right now, as he is still young, has a long way to go to get to the major leagues and lots to improve upon, but so far it looks like he’s trending towards that high ceiling.

Rosario is one of the rare international prospects that was jumped straight to the Appalachian league after his signing. This is probably partially due to his strong make up. Rosario is a high school graduate with a successful family and siblings that are college graduates, including one that was already a New York City attorney at the time of his signing in 2012. With an unquestioned work ethic, it had to be felt that the gem of the Mets international signing class in 2012 could handle a more advanced league in the United States during his 2013 debut and Rosario didn’t disappoint. Although his numbers don’t jump off of the stat sheet, he did hit .241 with a 637 OPS while being three and half years younger than his competition. He also showed solid plate discipline for a 17 year old, striking out about 19% of the time while walking 5% of the time, while also holding his own in the field at shortstop. Again, none of these are mind boggling numbers, but when you consider his age, to hold his own to this extent as a 17 year old was impressive.

When Rosario turned 18 in November, the Mets bumped him up to Brooklyn, where he spent most of the 2014 season outside of a seven game stint in Savannah that book ended his Brooklyn tenure. In Brooklyn, playing against competition three years older and more experienced than him, Rosario put up quality numbers batting .289 with a 717 OPS while dropping his strike out rate to about 17% and increasing his walk rate to 6%. His fielding took a dip, as he committed an unseemly 20 errors in 64 games at Brooklyn, but most scouts still agreed that he had the ability to remain at shortstop.

Rosario is really all about potential at this point, but the forecast is very bright for the young man and his success already shows that he might just be the big time position prospect Mets fans have been waiting for.

Defensively, Rosario has all the tools. He has soft hands, a strong arm and good instincts. It’s just a matter of him putting it all together consistently and whether he gets too big for the position. That’s probably unlikely as the Mets have seen with Wilmer Flores. Rosario has been rated as an average to plus runner, so even if he puts on mass, it shouldn’t cut back on his range too much. Flores showed last year that despite being a slow runner, he could hold it together at shortstop, giving hope for Rosario. If he puts all of the tools together, Rosario will be, at the least, an average defensive shortstop with a chance to be above average.

Its Rosario’s potential with the bat that’s really exciting. Rosario has terrific bat speed and has worked on his approach at the plate. When Rosario came to the Mets, he had a high leg kick as a timing mechanism, which he has worked on levelling out. This in and of itself could have led to his improving offensive statistics and he has been described as already having an advanced concept, for his age, of what to do and look for at the plate. He still struggles with breaking pitches at this point, but that isn’t uncommon for someone his age. With speed that has been rated from average to plus and a tall frame, Rosario has shown a solid propensity for legging out triples at this point in his career with 10 in just 500 at bats. The power hasn’t come yet for Rosario, as his ISO actually dropped during his second season, but he still has room for muscle and did show himself to be stronger in 2014, proving that he’s working on this aspect of his game. With his bat speed, if he can keep working on his approach, pitch recognition and muscle mass, Rosario has the potential to be a plus bat with a solid speed and power combination while being able to stay a shortstop. That’s pretty exciting.

In the end, just like with Molina, it’s just too early to tell with Rosario. He could be a boom or bust, high ceiling player who never turns his tools into production, or a player that will soon be a top five prospect in the organization. In the end, he’s someone to keep an eye on as he should make his full season debut next year. Unfortunately that will be in Savannah, where his power just won’t translate, but the hope is that he will continue to show success and progress in his approach at the plate and his defense in the field. If that continues to happen, all of us will get that much more excited over what this young man could be for this organization in the future.