In Julian McCarthy’s recent article, Assessing the threat level of every National League wild-card contender, uber-commenter Chris F. raised the point about the number of question marks on the 2015 Mets. He then closed his comment with a reference to Tumblin’ Dice, which got me on a fever in the funk house tangent.
But since this is a baseball site and not a gambling one, let’s talk about those question marks.
Chris mentioned nine guys, which seems like a lot. But how many players can you be sure will deliver a certain level of performance? A couple of years ago, many people advocated signing free agent pitcher Bronson Arroyo because you could count on him giving you 200 IP. For nine consecutive seasons, Arroyo delivered 199 or more innings. Last year it was 86.
Big deal, we know pitchers are a different beast. Then how about Curtis Granderson? He played in 136 or more games in seven consecutive seasons. Then in 2013 it was just 61. David Wright had six straight years where he played at least 144 games. In the last for seasons he’s reached that total just once. Pitchers get the bad rap but hitters can’t be written in stone, either.
Let’s take Chris’ list one by one.
Travis d’Arnaud – Longtime prospect finally delivered on promise in second half of 2014. What’s more real – the .218 BABIP before the demotion or the .765 OPS after his recall? My money’s on the latter. The big concern is with his health. If d’Arnaud plays a full season, his minor league track record indicates he’ll hit.
How worried? His position and injury risk puts this one at 30%
Lucas Duda – A full season at his preferred position resulted in 30 HR, an .830 OPS and a 137 OPS+. Interestingly, that OPS+ number matched the one Duda put up in 2011, when he also played significant time at first base. In his MLB career, Duda has an .825 OPS while playing 1B compared to a .743 OPS playing LF. The Mets plan to play him exclusively at 1B again in 2015.
How worried? Due solely to confidence issues (my guess is these are more invented by others than real), let’s put this one at 10%
Wilmer Flores – Anyone who expects him to hit like he did in Las Vegas is a pie-in-the-sky optimist. Before we can realistically examine how big of a question mark he is for 2015, we have to have some baseline to compare him to. Last year he had a 1.3 fWAR in 274 PA. Steamer projects him to a 1.7 fWAR in 512 PA. Let’s establish the Steamer output, which has him producing a .685 OPS, as his expectation.
How worried? While I think this might be a hair optimistic, it’s certainly not unreasonable. The risk comes in failing defensively. Combined together let’s put the risk at 45%
David Wright – Can he stay healthy? And if he’s healthy, will we see the return of his power? Finally, has he aged to the point where we’re concerned about a Jason Bay-like cliff dive? Steamer projects 576 PA and a .779 OPS
How worried? More so about playing time than reaching that level of production. Let’s peg it at 25%
Michael Cuddyer – Older than Wright with a recent injury history to at least match, plus there’s the concern over his defensive ability. However, all of those risks have to be balanced against the knowledge that the Matt den Dekker/John Mayberry Jr. platoon that would replace him would probably be at least as productive overall, even if in a different shape.
How worried? Not one bit
Curtis Granderson – Here’s another one where we have to agree on what the expectations are. This time last year we could realistically dream about a return to 2012 levels but my feeling is now most agree that ship has passed. Last year Granderson had a 108 wRC+ and a .714 OPS and Steamer projects a 106 and .712 marks, respectively.
How worried? Let’s set the reach the Steamer projection worried factor at 15%
Matt Harvey – He’ll be over 17 months removed from surgery when Opening Day rolls around. Few question Harvey’s commitment to be great. By far, the greatest concern is if his body will let him and the next worry is how the club will manage his innings. Because it’s the Mets, who just saw Jeremy Hefner require a not-particularly-common second TJ surgery, we can’t wave away these concerns.
How worried? Let’s match the Granderson concern and put it at 15%
Zack Wheeler – Why is he on this list? Oh yeah – forgot for a second who created it in the first place. Steamer projects five fewer starts and worse luck in the ERA/FIP comparison. This feels like a bearish projection for a highly-touted youngster entering his second full season.
How worried? Let’s match Harvey and declare it to be 15%
Bobby Parnell – After putting up a year in 2013 that would look at home with those put up regularly by future Hall of Fame reliever Mariano Rivera, Parnell missed most of 2014. Steamer projects 65 IP at essentially his career numbers for the upcoming season. It will be harder to match the former than the latter. Jenrry Mejia proved to be a solid replacement at closer and Jeurys Familia is another solid fall-back option for saves. Terry Collins and the 2015 Mets may prefer Parnell at closer but his biggest value may be in just delivering quality bullpen innings, regardless of the inning he enters the game.
How worried? Because of the inherent instability of bullpen production, let’s pin this at 35%
The nine players mentioned as risks do not all carry the same degrees of uncertainty. All reasonable people will conclude that Flores has the most risk. His hitting outside of the friendly confines of Las Vegas has never been overwhelming and he’s trying to succeed at a premium defensive position with a shaky defensive reputation. The good news is that the expectations are not through the roof. All we’re hoping is that he doesn’t embarrass himself with the glove and that he improve just a bit with the stick.
Then we have the health concerns of d’Arnaud, Wright, Cuddyer, Harvey and Parnell. Harvey and Wright may have the most unrealistic production expectations from the common fan. They also have displayed the ability to reach those lofty goals.
Finally we have Duda and Wheeler, two guys who may not have enough expected from them.
While my hope is that Wright can return to being an elite hitter like he was in 2013 and that d’Arnaud can take a step forward to challenge for a four-win season, my expectation is that the Mets’ offense will succeed by having average or slightly better hitters at each spot. My goal is that they avoid the sinkhole on offense and are not done in by the 2015 equivalent of the Terrible Trio of May 2013, when the lineup featured near automatic outs in John Buck, Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada.
My vision is for a lineup composed of hitters that put up a wRC+ number in the 95-115 range. Flores may need to stand on his tip toes to reach that number but my subjective view is he’ll be close enough. The biggest worry offensively might be a player who didn’t’ make the original list. Steamer projects Juan Lagares to finish the year with an 84 wRC+ and a .285 wOBA. Those numbers may seem harsh but that’s what happens if he finishes with a league-average balls in play rate. May the BABIP gods continue to smile on him in 2015.
The expectation here is for the Mets to push past .500 for the first time since 2008 thanks to an average lineup with no sinkholes, starting pitching that regularly tosses Quality Starts and a solid back-end of the pen. It may not be glamorous and it may not result in a bunch of All-Star representatives. But it should result in more wins than losses.
Brian,
A well-reasoned article, but I think you might be a tad optimistic on the number of wins. Not because of the players you mentioned, but because of the mgr. you did not mention.
Fair enough
Seems odd why you changed the standards for Cuddyer. By that same token, TDA’s “risk” should be lower because of Plawecki and Parnell has zero risk too because last year showed the pen could survive without him.
I don’t think there’s any reason not to put the words super high risk next to Cuddyer’s name
With TDA, I don’t see Plawecki coming in and giving anything close to a .765 OPS.
If Erik Goeddel has to replace Parnell or Plawecki TDA — that’s a much bigger difference for me than MDD/Mayberry replacing Cuddyer.
Your mileage may vary.
I think you might be underestimating Flores. His minor league numbers outside of Vegas look pretty solid to me.
The “Harvey Risk” must be well beyond 15%–that is, if he’s being compared to the baseline he set for himself. I am all but certain that he’ll be significantly below the previous level of performance during much of his first year back. I view him as a “wildcard”… a big plus, especially if he can be effective with a late year run.
I do believe that 2 of three Grandy, Wright, Cuddy must provide big production…if they can give you 420-450 games and 85% of their prior production (combined), it’s a big start to something nice.
A Catcher who can hit is big gravy—- d’Arnaud looks to be a guy who will be a very competitive hitter. Duda may not do 30/90, but he’s an .800 OPS cowbell with 75-90 ribbies.
I’m concerned with offensive regression from Lego… also, leadoff versus #8 hitter….tough spots and not many matches.
Healthy pitchers, aside from Harvey, and you have a team.
The Defensive Gut will be an interesting show— I believe we’ll see a good bit of Tejada.
Brian, I cannot see TDA being a strong bet to not be hurt at least once. I would give him 50% risk factor.
Likewise, Cuddyer is not reasonably expected to not be down at some point. My risk factor is 33%.
As for Grandy, he is in fact replaceable but the replacing will be by Neuheinweis/Mayberry and there is no risk factor.
My opinion.
Wow, I am quite honored to have any of my drivel become the focus of such an in-depth and well reasoned article!
I think it is fascinating to work out the per cent concern, if you will, pertaining to the individuals I mentioned. In my mind, when i placed the question marks, I had more of a subjective feel to them along the lines of do we know who will really show up in 2015. I very much enjoyed reading your perspective Brian.
I’m still filled with question marks. For example, we saw Ike hit 30 HR, then come unglued. Im a Duda guy, always have been, but my inner fear is that Duda comes back into the 18-22 range. Pitchers will give him less to look at. Coming into ’15, I’m very confident Stanton goes yard 30+ times! but I simply have no sense of that for Duda, hence my question mark. The only consistency in TdA is that he’s a terrible defender with no arm. I hope the bat continues on, but have minimal confidence it will. Wright is a ? simply because of the seriousness of his injury. If you think Niese’s arm slot has dropped in recent years, just look at Wright — he throws like Kent Tekulve! And the throwing errors keep mounting…I simply have no clue if the arm and bat return. I placed the question marks not because I think the results would likely be poor, but more that as of now, I have a huge amount of concern we can’t predict with any certainty what we are getting.
Well done Brian…amd thanks for opening my eyes to thinking about this from a more analytical angle.
Chris
I grant that the following is pure conjecture on my part and will fault no one for dismissing it out of hand.
When Ike hit 32 HR, it was a result of all of the effort he put in with Hudgens in overhauling his swing. The very next year he abandoned what was successful because he looked ridiculous. His effort in 2013 appeared non-existent.
Meanwhile Duda goes to fitness camp prior to the 2014 season and has a career-saving year. He’s back at the fitness camp again and on MetsBlog it was reported that he was waiting to meet with Kevin Long to work on things he could do to get better against LHP. Say what you want about Duda but I don’t think anyone should question the effort he’s putting in to be the best he can be.
I think the combination of talent and effort is why I feel good about Duda.
As for Stanton, he missed big chunks of time in both 2012 and 2013 and got injured again in 2014, albeit in September. David Wright has played more games than Stanton the past three years. If he’s healthy, I have no doubts that he’ll hit 30 HR. But I have concerns about him playing 130 or more games.
Oh, and thanks for the kind words!
For Duda, I’d love to see the HR’s again, but I have lot’s of confidence that he’ll be in and around his .800 ops slot. My bigger fear is that he would become HR captive and slide well below that .800 ops slot
Chris F – I have to disagree with you. You don’t post drivel.
If the Mets are building a playoff contender for 2015 then the ifs needed to be addressed better during the offseason. Shortstop was not addressed.Even if the Mets brought in someone with experience to compete with Flores it would calm the jitters. Tejada, who has failed, is the fall back option. Duda is my least worry as long as TC uses the platoon Sandy provided him with.TdA needs to improve but at this point he is not expected to be a middle of the order batter in 2015. Wright, Granderson and Cuddyer ,who are the highest paid and oldest players, have to produce better for the Mets to be a playoff team. All three have something to prove and all three are ifs. Harvey, Wheeler and the young bullpen are the nucleus of this teams playoff hopes. If the pitching fails (which I doubt) it will get ugly fast.
Brian, I agree with your last paragraph conclusion.
Tejada really gets shafted by Mets fans.
1.2-1.8 fWAR, 1.4-2.1 bWAR in 3 out of 5 season in just 100-120 games.
He’s not an ideal starter, but he easily is a solid backup.
And this is why it makes so much sense to pursue Tulowitzki. If the hip is okay and he only misses his normal five weeks of the season, we have a competent replacement.
Name, I agree with you completely about Tejada. If I am the Mets though, I would have moved Tejada this winter and brought in at least another experienced shortstop to compete with Flores. If Flores fails then fans will be disappointed and if Tejada takes over at that point then it is the same old, same old. Bringing in a new face,at least from a marketing perspective, makes it look like something different is being tried. Tejada had his chance and didn’t seize it with the Mets. He is a major leaguer but could use a change of scenery for all parties concerned.
Brian if you’re not worried if Cuddyer is in the line up because the Mets have other options then why sign him? If he’s that easily replaceable (especially defensively) then the money could and should of gone elsewhere.
Here’s what I wrote after the Cuddyer signing:
The pessimists have a data point showing why this was a bad signing. Then you factor in Cuddyer’s age, his recent playing time issues, his horrible defense, his contract and the fact that the Mets had to surrender a first-round pick to get him and one doesn’t have to squint too hard to see this move being even worse than the Chris Young signing a year ago that horrified many people at the time it was made and the rest of us after watching him play for the Mets.
Tejada as a backup is marginal. Tejada as your starting SS is criminal.
Every team has question marks; obstacles suddenly appear on the road. The question shifts to management’s ability to respond to those issues, and that’s where I lose all faith in the organization. I don’t see the Wilpons going the extra yard should injuries befall a key player. I don’t see Alderson doing anything other than calling up whomever from AAA.
Plan B is called, “Oh well, maybe next year.”
I personally look at a young, inexperienced, talented bullpen that collectively has a brutal history with injuries — all run by a manager who does not have a deft hand, who does not have the guts to rest players, who burns out pitchers annually. Mejia and Familia are fragile; Parnell is returning from a serious injury, so I see him a extremely vulnerable. Edgin can’t make it through a full season. Black, the same. Bullpens are always a concern. I don’t deny the talent here — and it’s possible they light it up in 2015 — but I keep coming back to management. I don’t believe Alderson will react with urgency if any of the wheels fall off; I don’t believe the Wilpons will open up the wallet. They’ll be patient.
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Some very good points made by several posters. If TDA and Flores gets injured (or don’t hit), Plawecki and Reynolds are probably adequate replacements. Duda’s numbers at 1B are solid. Wright should be healthy and better, and Granderson should be a bit better, as well, with Long coaching him and the fences brought in. Wheeler’s ERA was almost a run lower in the second half, and he could very well have a minus 3 ERA this year. Cuddyer has six consecutive years of an over 100 OPS+ and last year was only the first year of the six that he batted less than 350 times. Lagares has the green light to steal now and confidence to do so, and should steal 25 bases. And we’ve got enough good arms in the pen to do without Parnell. Still, I’m thinking 85 wins, with Collins keeping us from a few more.
oops: “*get* injured”
Because I didn’t have my glasses on when reading the article, I first read this sentence “starting pitching that regularly tosses Quality Starts” as this “starting pitching that regularly loses Quality Starts.” I had to double-take and reread. In essence this sums up my fear once again for this team. The rotation is strong enough to compete, and could possibly dominant. Once again the questions come from the offense and defense behind them. Granderson lost time in 2013 because of two bean-balls, as did Stanton last year. You can’t predict those. I just hope that the Mets play well enough so that they can start winning those close games, 2-1, or 4-3, instead of consistently dropped them again this year. Those are the games that will determine a winning record, or another Oh Well year.
To that point, Matt Harvey is 12-10 with a 2.37 ERA for his career.
The offense should be better; the defense will be worse.
There’s plenty of reasons to hope, and a lot to like about this team. I’m frustrated with management, but can easily root for this group of players.
Defense up the middle is what wins games Patrick. That being said between Flores and Murphy barely playing adequately on defense How many plays does a netter defender save? How many pass balls will TdA have this season? He led the major leagues in that category. Amazing! I thought R.A. was still here! Can TdA also improve on throwing out base runners? The Mets may very well be strong enough to compete day in and day out but do you have the same confidence in Collins? I do not. Girardi did an incredible job with having so many starting rotation gone for the season. Do you think Collins could of done the same?
LOL, Collins would have cried everyday, “We’re just snakebitten.” “We’re just licking our wounds and trying to keep afloat.” “We need to keep grinding.” And other Loser excuses and mentality he has often turned to when explaining his team’s bad streaks.
He really doesn’t have a clue as to why things are going badly nor does he understand why a team is winning. Were he to know, he wouldn’t bench a good performing young player to get his veteran buddy in there. Doesn’t this guy’s political agenda piss you off? I cant believe he still has a job, but I fully understand why no one was giving him a chance.
And he had the b*lls to bring back him back again for that early September push to nowhere.