To most fans, this Mets offseason has been a disappointment. The Mets will trade Dillon Gee, most likely for prospects and/or a bullpen arm and will have signed Michael Cuddyer and John Mayberry Jr. That doesn’t seem like much, but the Mets didn’t need all that much offensively when you think about their offensive numbers from last year and compare that to expectations from this year.
2014 Mets Catchers: .225 AVG 20 HR’s 670 OPS
As our Mets 360 projections showed, there is a thought that Travis d’Arnaud will be closer to the player he was after returning from his sojourn to Las Vegas in 2014. In 2014, from July until the end of the season, d’Arnaud hit nearly .270 with a nearly 800 OPS and nine home runs in just a little over 230 AB’s. We know what Anthony Recker is, a .200 hitter who will slug a little over five home runs in a limited number of starts, but if d’Arnaud increases his production as we all expect him to, the Mets will easily eclipse the composite catcher numbers from 2014. Also don’t forget that Taylor Teagarden and Juan Centeno contributed to the 2014 catcher totals by combining for an OPS under 450 in 61 plate appearances. I think it’s pretty certain that some combination of Kevin Plawecki and Xorge Carillo will be more productive.
2014 Mets First Baseman: .248 AVG 29 HR’s 799 OPS
These were better numbers than many thought the Mets would produce when the season started with a ridiculous platoon of two left handed hitters in Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. However, after Davis was traded, Duda blossomed and not only had the best year of his career, but also one of the better years by first baseman in all of baseball. Since many think Duda won’t repeat a 30 home run season, it seems that the Mets would not be likely to repeat this production. That’s incorrect though. Even if Duda regresses and continues to not be able to hit left handed pitching, left hander mashers Cuddyer and Mayberry can ably fit in at first base against left handed pitching. As much as Eric Campbell was a nice story, he hits for no power and could very easily be the 2014 version of Josh Statin. In the end, it’s pretty easy to predict that these numbers will stay the same, with a chance for an uptick next year.
2014 Mets Right Fielders: .241 AVG 19 HR’s 735 OPS
These numbers are brought down a bit by Granderson who had a horrible start to the season and a career worst August in 2014. The rest of the year, Granderson was exactly the guy the Mets paid for by hitting for power and getting on base. Because of that fact, these numbers are lower than they should be. With Cuddyer and Mayberry in place, these numbers are certain to increase, especially when you consider the presence of Cesar Puello, if he can get his act together. It’s not Giancarlo Stanto, but it clearly shows the Mets improving the situation.
2014 Mets Left Fielders: .219 AVG 6 HR’s 615 OPS
This has to get better by default. Everyone knows that Granderson is going to log most of the innings in left field next year and his numbers, despite a terrible start to the season and a horrific August, were much better than what left field produced last year. In fact, this position could have the single largest improvement of any offensive position, even if Granderson doesn’t improve this year, as most of us expect he will.
2014 Mets Third Basemen: .263 AVG 8 HR’s 670 OPS
David Wright will be better than this next year. Count on it. Wright played hurt all of last year, but is healthy now. Yes he’s older and no, we shouldn’t expect the Wright of the mid-2000’s any longer, but he only has to be 60% of his old self to eclipse last year’s offensive numbers. Wright is only 32 years old. He’s at the tail end of his prime, but he’s also not over the hill. Expect a fairly hefty improvement here.
2014 Mets Shortstops: .236 AVG 8 HR’s 629 OPS
The Mets might still upgrade this position, but even if they don’t, they will get better production here. Maybe one would call this optimism, but Wilmer Flores should achieve improvement over these numbers fairly easily. His career totals in the major leagues are slightly better than this production and that’s including terrible starts to his 2013 and 2014 seasons. Even if he produces just like he did in 2014, he will lead to more production out of the short stop position. If the Mets upgrade, this position could beat left field for offensive improvement.
When you add all of that up with the steady production of Daniel Murphy at second base (the Mets won’t take much of a hit there if Murphy is traded mid-season as second base is one of the deepest positions on both the team an in the minor leagues) along with an improved pitching staff with the return of Matt Harvey, the lack of action in the offseason doesn’t seem as disappointing. Also, none of what was written above is that outlandish an expectation. By all accounts, the Mets should see improvement offensively at catcher, shortstop, third base, left field and right field, while maintaining production at first base and second base. If Juan Lagares continues to grow as a hitter, increased production out of center field isn’t out of the realm of possibility either. All in all, that seems to be pretty good signs that this team should win at least 85 games, which would put them right into the playoff mix, something that we all want, will lead to more ticket sales and put the Mets in a much better financial situation, which will hopefully lead to more upgrades next season. Regardless of that last part, this team is finally looking like one that could make some noise in 2015. If further upgrades happen, all the better.
This is from MMO. There was a poll on what Mets fans prefer; here are the results. Apologies if I am out of line posting this here.
……………..
Go with Wilmer Flores 40.43%
Trade Familia, Montero, Murphy for Ian Desmond 22.38%
Sign Everth Cabrera, Cross Fingers 14.80%
Go with Ruben Tejada 12.64%
Trade Syndergaard, Herrera, Matz, Plawecki for Troy Tulowitzki 5.05%
Trade Syndergaard, Nimmo for Ian Desmond 3.25%
Trade deGrom, Nimmo, Rosario, Smith for Troy Tulowitzki 1.44%
……………
More hope than we realize. Huh? LOL, Pete, guess how I voted.
Hey Gus I don’t know what to think anymore. None of the things this writer claims in the article are outlandish in the least and I could see some of them happening. I just can’t see all of them happening the same season, there will be injuries that is a given and a long one to Cuddyer destroys the premise that the OF will be better, as I just don’t see Granderson doing anything more than he did last year and without Cuddyer being able to shift into 1st against lefties that could easily lead to a worse year for Duda as he regresses back to the mean and has to face lefties full time on top of it. Flores and TDA are something we are all banking on that they will play more like they did the last two months than the first four but most everyone is banking on the last two months of the year being the true indicator.
The pen is comprised of young power arms that are very promising but most don’t even have a full year in the bigs or just barely another is coming off of major neck and elbow surgery and hasn’t really pitched in more than a year and a half by the time the season starts, not to mention the volatile nature of bullpen denizens performances from year to year.
As for the starters can we really count on Harvey being the Harvey of old this year? Is it really appropriate to expect deGrom to duplicate what he did last year only over an entire season which he is yet to pitch. Are we going to get the 1st half Wheelz or the second half Wheelz, Is Neise arm going to drop out of his shoulder socket mid inning or maybe short of that his fastball decrease in velocity again as last year and lose all effectiveness. Will Colon even be able to fit in the clubhouse door when he gets to spring training?
Our depth could be great but most are completely unproven minor leaguers that we are going on projection for an estimate of what they can do not past performance in the major leagues as a measuring stick.
The questions abound and for every rosy outlook you can scratch a little deeper and find a reasonable argument as to why it can go the other way. Now as I said before about the rosy outlook in this article I doubt all things he mentions will go right just as I doubt all the things on the down side I mention will go wrong but even it out with some going good others not working out and I see a 500 team a couple of games either way.
I still think that the aim here is to be a real contender in 2016. They still need to see this year if Harvey, Parnell and Wright are healthy can Cuddyer stay healthy at least 3/4 of a season playing other than DH and is his bat really going to outweigh possibly the worst OF glove in the entire league is Granderson going to continue declining or rebound if Flores, deGrom , Familia, Mejia, Black, Lagares and TDA can be counted on, how Hererra’s development comes along as well as Plawecki, Reynolds, Montero and Matz and some others.
If most of these things are answered positively I think next off season you see the front office put on a full court press to plug the last remaining holes with significant upgrades in an attempt to make us a true title contender, but this year in my opinion is primarily another year of development and evaluation hoping that everything comes together in a flash of lightning and they can catch it in a bottle.
Rob, wow, you covered all the bases! Just want to answer to a couple of things:
1. If Cuddyer is unavailable to play 1st against lefties, Mayberry or Campbell are good options. Probably Campbell because Mayberry will be in RF that day.
2. Cuddyer has been playing RF for a while. I don’t think he will be Duda or Murphy out there. I think the negative publicity about his defense is overblown. He may not necessarily have range, but he will make 97% of the plays. Like Flores, if he just plays a routine position, we’re fine with that.
Speaking of defensive ratings, do you realize that some long time second basemen like Aaron Hill and Jason Kipnis have had worse ratings than Murphy over the last couple of years? I think the defense as a whole will be acceptable; maybe not better than that, but we’ll be ok with it.
Hey Gus,
Maybe Mayberry gets back to doing some good things like he did a few years ago with the Philthies who knows but he really doesn’t inspire me in the least. If Cuddyer is injured and we have to go with Mayberry in RF full time and then put Soup in at 1st when a tough lefty pitches and sit Duda does that say playoff team to you, it surely doesn’t to me, in fact it reminds me of pretty much the same debacle we had last year just different names. Mayberry will be exposed badly if he has to go to the plate more than 350 times this year Soup was exposed the second half of last year, look at his 1st half/second half splits, scary.
I’m sorry buddy but I can’t agree with you about Cuddyer’s D if anything at ages 36 and 37 he will be even worse and with less range. He has been rating amongst the very worst of the worst as an OFer for years now, and that is another worry at least last year with the Young’s and Granderson or MDD and Capt Kirk Lagares pretty much just needed to cover center with Cuddyer to one side he will be asked to pull double duty. Look back at the last two years Lagares is not the most durable player in the world even at his young age he has missed significant time both years. His balls to the wall style of play although great to watch lends itself to injury and with him being asked to steal more as he did late in the year it will be just more wear and tear on his body. I look for Lagares to miss minimum 40 games this year.
I hope I am completely off base my friend I look at this team up and down everyday trying to see what all the optimism is about. I see optimism for 2016 to be a playoff team, I see optimism in possibly taking a small step in that direction this year. I don’t see us challenging anyone for a WC slot nor challenging the Nationals for division. I do however see us challenging the Marlin’s for second place in the east. But neither of us are playing games in October in my crystal ball.
Have a great day sir.
Thank you, sir. You too.
Nice work…and lots of ifs! That said, I think the offense will be much better in 2015.
The Mets offensive lineup has improved with double digit homerun production expected in spots 2-8. . The already poor defensive lineup has gotten worse with Cuddyer in right field. The starting pitching will improve with the return of Harvey and the better depth provided by Montero and Syndergaard. The relief pitching should improve with the return of Parnell. The bench is stronger with Mayberry as a right handed power threat. There is no reason not to believe that this team will be better than the 79 win team of 2014. The weakness is the defense so it will be up to TC to make the right defensive moves late in games. 85 wins is a possibility.
Maybe The Plan is working! 85 wins and a contending team are strong possibilities.
Tell DW that! He could have been a Dodger for more money than he got here!
I can see the Mets winning 85 games, but doubt the Wilpons will spend much more on improving the team in the coming years—even with increased attendance and getting more money from MLB. They probably will view any improvement in attendance as meaning that many fans will accept their spending policies.
My biggest worry is that they won’t retain much of their young talent by signing them on long-term contracts before they approach free agency.
Very little being written about Granderson this year.
Why is no one looking at Curtis Granderson half empty? Instead of assuming April and August were the flukes and throwing those stats out, why not look at May and June as the flukes and throw those stats out?
If we throw away May and June, we’re looking at around .200/.290/.335 10 Hr’s and 625 OPS in 100 games.
Still on track to be Bay 2.0, as many have predicted…
I wrote a post about Granderson earlier in the offseason. The reason that April and August aren’t taken as serious is because, career wise, they are statistical outliers. Those two months represent his two worst offensive months in his career, while the other months of the season were actual within his statistical norms. Take a look, https://mets360.com/?p=23093
Yep. Nothing written about him since 9/19.
That’s the cherry picked half-full analysis, but i could easily write another cherry picked half-empty analysis.
You could split by month and say 2 out of the 6 months are “outliers”. If you split season stats by 1/3s or 1/2s and probably come up with that they weren’t outliers.
You could say he was an 849 OPS player 64% of the time. Cherry picking the bad stats, i could say he was a 582 OPS player 63% of the time (throw away May1-June25)
I guess people are choosing to believe in the good, or maybe they’re afraid to talk about how bad he could be.
Name, I really thought that the Mets would have attempted to move Granderson earlier in the off season to get away from his future salary. His value would have been lower but there may have been a market. If he has another .715 OPS season then they are stuck with him for two more years after that. This team in its current financial situation really can’t afford this risk. Now all we can do his hope for a rebound.
But that’s not cherry picking. That’s using OPS as a guide. He’s had 3 months in his entire career like April and August. Those numbers in that article were from analyzing every healthy, full month he played in his entire career. This isn’t a guy who’s played 2 years, he’s entering his 12 year, so the concept of outliers works for him as there is enough mathematical evidence to use to analyze last season.
I just looked at his numbers using OPS from a first half second half aspect. Until the second half of 2014, Granderson never had an OPS lower than 715 since 2005 and that includes posting a 768 in the first half of 2014. That’s 22 first and second halves. That’s 1/22. There’s nothing to cherry pick.
Using raw OPS doesn’t reflect the trend towards pitching or adjust for ballpark.
In 2006, Granderson had a .773 OPS, but only a 98 OPS+.
In 2014, Granderson had a .714 OPS, but a 105 OPS+
Maybe I’m confused, but how does that negatively reflect on Granderson if he’s posting higher OPS+ for less production? If Scott is right and those outliers truly are just outliers, then shouldn’t we then assume a glass-half full attitude, based on the OPS+ stat you just showcased?
Scott’s argument that April and August stats should be thrown away because they are “outliers” based on OPS split by month.
But I postured (without doing the research) that if you use splits by 1st half/2nd half and/or OPS+ instead of OPS, I could make the “half-empty” claim that Granderson’s season was not abnormal and that we should expect this mediocre production for the next 3 years.
I don’t believe you can just chalk April and August up as statistical outliers as they are very relevant to an aging outfielder and are most likely an indicator of things to come. Don’t forget that the Mets have a history of competent hitters coming to the team and falling off the face of the earth compared to their statistical norms. I would not expect an improvement from Granderson but more of a repeat of last year which is not going to be beneficial to the 2015 Mets. A slight upgrade of Cuddyer who himself cannot remain healthy will not help enough for an offensive upgrade.
A lot of tears all this years continue this one .A lot of trades all the time and do not see which is the real problem.2016 a long year again .