Yoan Moncada is the latest phenom to defect from Cuba. At 19 years old, Moncada is about as good of a prospect as one could hope for. With his tools, if he was a high school or college baseball player, Moncada would clearly be a potential top 10 draft selection, commanding a substantial bonus amount related to the pool of money that is sanctioned for each team. Since Moncada is a Cuban defector, the rules are very different, which is where the travesty comes in. If the Mets don’t move forward to at least attempt to sign this player, that is as great a sign as we’ve seen that this team is more about financial concerns than winning.
Let’s take a look at what the hype is all about first. Moncada is 19 years old, but already stands at nearly 6’2” and weighs a fit 200 plus pounds. He’s considered a legitimate five tool prospect with plus plus speed, plus power and legitimate bat speed. He’s got the tools to stick at shortstop, his current position, where his bat could put Moncada in the stratosphere in terms of his skill level at the position. He’s also a switch hitter, with similar bat skills from both sides of the plate. What’s Moncada’s ceiling? Think Troy Tulowitzki hitting from both sides of the plate and it’s surmised that Moncada would probably only need two years or so in the minor leagues.
It’s not just his skill set that’s so intriguing. Unlike the Asian foreign market, which has had very mixed results from hyped prospects, the most hyped Cuban players have all been successful thus far. Jose Abreu, Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig were all hyped players that have put up terrific numbers in the major leagues. Rusney Castillo and Jorge Soler were also hyped players that have yet to make their mark, but Soler got off to a very nice start by posting a 903 OPS in a 24 game stint in 2014. Both Castillo and Soler have the potential to be regulars in 2015 and could join Abreu, Puig and Cespedes in the thriving success that is the Cuban market. The rate of achievement shown by Cuban players has made Moncada that much more intriguing as his skillset ranks with Puig and Soler, with the potential that all of that talent could be on the field, playing shortstop, by the time her turns 21.
When you look at the Mets offseason thus far, the Michael Cuddyer signing seems to make Moncada a player the Mets absolutely need to pursue. Moncada’s skillset would make him a player the Mets wouldn’t be able to draft in 2015 as they lost their draft pick as a part of the Cuddyer signing and, if they play as well as we all hope they will, would have put them in the middle of the pack, at best, anyway. This means that they wouldn’t have the capacity to draft a player of Moncada’s caliber whether they had the pick or not. Moncada would in essence be the draft pick they are losing and be a much better prospect to boot. Yet, word is that Mets can’t fit Moncada “into the budget” and this is where the travesty begins.
There are rules related to international free agents. Every team is provided with a spending limit, based upon record. Teams can also acquire international pool money in trades with other teams. This season, the Mets have anywhere between 2.5 and three million dollars to spend in the international free agent market, depending on whether other monetary transactions have occurred to give them additional funds. Up this this point, the team has spent around two million of that limit, with half of it going to top 30 international prospect Kenny Hernandez, a 16 year old shortstop with raw, but big potential. What does all of that mean? Well, that the Mets have some money to use. There are penalties for exceeding the spending limits. Any amount that goes beyond the bonus pool is subject to 100% penalties, meaning that if you go two million beyond the pool, you pay Major League Baseball two million on top of the two million signing bonus. In essence, a team would be spending four million dollars for a two million dollar player. Also, going beyond the pool bonus limits signing privileges for the next two years, not allowing said team to sign a player for more than 300,000 dollars. This is limiting, as the top 15 to 20 prospects all usually go for bonuses in excess of 300,000. This could mean nothing, as two top international prospects on the Mets, Marcos Molina and Jhoan Urena were both signed for under that amount, but that would mean that the likes of Hernandez and top ten prospect Amed Rosario would not be a part of the Mets system. To put this all in perspective, look at what the Yankees have done in international free agency since June of 2014. Of the top 30 ranked international prospects, the Yankees have signed 10 of them and exceeded their spending pool by a good 14 to 15 million dollars. Guess who is a leading contender for Moncada’s services?
So where does this leave the Mets? Well, considering the lack of a draft pick, the skill level of Moncada and the success of Cuban imports so far, the Mets should be in the forefront of the pursuit of this young man. Unfortunately, they seem to have backed out before the competition has even begun and that’s where the travesty lies. If the Mets want fans in the seats, they need to be about winning and not the check book. Yes, Omar Minaya’s spending ways did not result in a championship and left the club with a lot of dead weight contracts when he was replaced as general manager, but there is that kind of spending and where the Mets are now, with a payroll in the bottom third of baseball.
Moncada might carry a contract of anywhere between 50 and 100 million dollars, depending on the length of the deal. Say the Mets did sign him for nine million a season over the course of a seven year deal. That would mean that for the next two years their international free agent signings would be limited and they would have to pay major league baseball at least an 8.5 million dollar fee this season, in essence paying 17.5 million dollars for Moncada in 2015. Considering that Dillon Gee will be traded soon and Daniel Murphy will probably be dealt some time during the season that cuts about 10 million dollars off of the Mets books. This team can’t come up with 7.5 million dollars? They were willing to try and trade for Ian Desmond, who is set to make 11 million dollars in 2015, all while still working to deal Gee and being ready to deal Murphy and Desmond’s a player that will most likely be gone next year. Are the Mets really telling us that they’d rather spend 11 million on a player who will only benefit them this year, instead of say 7.5 million for a player who has the potential to star for them for five or more years?
That seems to be exactly the case, and it shows you just how clueless the Mets really are. Abreu, Cespedes and Castillo had flaws, whether it be age, athleticism or ability and Puig and Soler were signed before the Cuban market really exploded, so one can excuse the Mets for not signing those players, but Moncada is different. He’s skilled, and there is now proof of concept that Cuban baseball players cannot only compete in the major leagues, but potentially dominate. For the Mets to ignore such an opportunity when all they have to do is put money into it is absolutely appalling, especially when one looks at the fact that Colon and Murphy will be off the books starting in 2016, at the latest.
Let’s just end it all this way. Signing Moncada means that the Mets want to win and are dedicated to building a winner for the foreseeable future. Not signing Moncada or at least involving themselves in the pursuit of Moncada means that all of the heart and support the Mets fan base has put into this team while waiting for a winner is wasted and not appreciated by ownership. It also means that ownership is clueless as to how to run a baseball team and how to be successful in the baseball business, which is an absolute travesty.
Good article and I agree with 98% of it.
I don’t think Moncada is a lock to stick at shortstop. What I’ve heard is that he’ll likely move to third base.
I’m curious. Where exactly did you hear that “he’ll likely move to third base”? Just wondering
I also heard that. I think it was on MLBTradeRumors or some place like that. I think I even heard he’s a possible outfielder, but this is splitting hairs. The point is he is a valuable player that the Mets are removing themselves from, and that’s a shame.
Completely agree with your article Scott. I’m tired of hearing about the Yankees being the favorites to get this guy. I want the Mets to go for this guy and inevitably get him. It would bring excitement to the ballpark everyday, and I don’t think Moncada is a bust.
You have to be kidding right. You think if the Yankees really want this guy that the Mets would be able to sign him. Freddie (Coupon) Wilpon doesn’t play at that high roller’s table!
Nickel slots for Freddie with free meals to go.
It has been evident for the past 6-7 years; the Wilpons are not invested in truly making the Mets a winner. They continue to sign FAs who no other team shows interest (in). That way, they do not have to negotiate a potential salary upwards. The minute one or more teams are involved in a FA bidding, Fred and Jeff head to the bargain basement.
How sad to have minor league ownership control the destiny of a team in the largest baseball market!
Moncado will probably become a Yankee.
Scott, this is what I heard yesterday about Moncada on the MLB Network:
He will get a signing bonus and then there will undoubtedly be a luxury tax penalty equal to the signing bonus because it is expected to be over $3MM. The signing bonus can be paid over three years but the tax needs to be paid immediately.
Further, he is not going to sign a contract as he will go through the normal minimum wage requirements and arbitration (like Rafael Montero did at the same age). So, the only thing expensive is the up front cost.
30M is the reported bonus.. so he will cost $60M for some team and they will be unable to sign any international free agent for more than $300,000 for the next two years. Way too expensive for a player who isn’t MLB ready and wont stick at SS, but likely will move to 3B or 2B where we are already set.
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I always figured it would come in at no more than 30, and wouldn’t be surprised if it’s around 20.The 50 thrown out there was just too much when you figure the tax, which makes him a $100MM signing. That is too much. But, I think since he has to spend time at AA and AAA and might be about a year and a half away, you have to be cautious about spending this much.
But reasoning it out, with minimum wages and arbitration, this player may be about $25MM in luxury tax, $25MM in signing bonus, and about $20MM in minimum wages for three years and arbitration for four years. So, for seven years from age 21 to age 28, he could be worth around $10-11MM on average.
That will not be too expensive overall if you have him averaging just 2 WAR per year and that may be conservative for his skillset.
Ouch! Gus did you say up front cost? Sorry but that phrase is not in Fred’s book. I think he’s on the other end of that rainbow called deferred payment plan only.
+1
Great article and I agree 100%, this is the type of move the Mets need to start making if they really want the fans to buy into the “we are going to be a contender” rhetoric. We are not a small market team that can’t afford to make this move and have paid millions of dollars to bums over the last few years. Now is the time to be daring and add an impact player that will only cost money and not the precious prospects that the Mets refuse to part with.
The #1 Overall Draft Pick is “slotted” around 8 million dollars. The “talk” is that Moncada will get $30,000,000.00!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!….with a total cost (“Luxury Tax”) of $60,000,00.00 !!
Having never seen him play….having read that he’s probably a year or two “away”…….
… Travesty!?…. are you kidding me!!!!????
This is not only out of step for this specific ownership, but it is specifically an amazing commitment to a big talent “Still Minor League Level player” !!!!!… for any team!
I get it’s a big risk, but it’s only money and that’s the issue. It’s the difference between big market and small market. The A’s won’t make this move, but the Red Sox or Yankees would. We can’t argue on one side that we want the Mets to spend money, then argue that they shouldn’t spend this money.
Also about the bonus, it won’t be that high. None of the Cuban players got the contracts that were predicted. I’d guess it’s between 15 and 20 million and remember arbitration after that. If he’s as good as they think, 40 million plus arbitration over 5 years is a quality investment, less than what Tulowitzki or Desmond would cost over that time frame.
Big markets take that risk on a player with such upside, small markets don’t. Which are the Mets?
Scott, fully agree. If I was a GM and my team was in good financial standing, i.e.: Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, maybe even Toronto because they have much moolah, I go for this kid. But, he needs to be a Bryce Harper type talent. A 70 on the scouting scale, at least. If you scout him and he’s the goods, spend the money.
The Mets are big market with small pockets.
It’s not just money though.
“15%+ overage: (1) MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. (2) The offending club loses the right to sign any player to a bonus exceeding $300,000 during the following two international signing periods.”
I took a quick look at BA’s top 30 international FA’s for this year
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-30-international-prospects-signed/
and each one that has a contract listed was in excess of 300k.
Basically, signing Moncada is a “put all your eggs in a basket” type of move, because you basically can’t sign a top international prospect for another 2 years.
Looking at the list also tells you why the Yankees are the overwhelming favorites. They’ve likely already gone over that 15% cap (as they’ve signed 1/3 of that top 30 list) and are already subjected to all the penalties, and so signing Moncada would truly only be “about the money”
You can hardly fault Sandy for not going that the Moncada route. Since the bust rate for prospects is so high, you need both quantity and quality, and while Moncada may be the highest of high end talent, it’ll cost you in terms of quantity of other high end talent.
Matt Cerrone explains it much better than i do.
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/mets-say-moncada-is-out-of-their-budget-but-what-does-that-mean/
I think the last sentence is worth mentioning and rementioning.
“The kid isn’t even free to sign a contract yet. Nevertheless, some Mets fans are already getting mad about money not spent on a player no one can spend money on yet. I understand the skepticism and conditioned response, but I’m going to refrain from judgement until he’s able to sign a deal and contracts are (or aren’t) being offered”
I don’t think u can kill the mets on this one for several reasons: signing an essentially unknown to a 30-40 mm signing bonus, and then having to pay the same thing in penalties, immediately, seems beyond bold, it’s risky. Not only that, but you are giving up on signing int. amateurs for two yrs beyond 300k. Secondly, i’ve read and heard that this kid is not sticking at ss. Just look at the footage he’s a stocky dude at 19, what’s he going to look like at 24? Also, In that footage, he did not look fast at all, maybe he just wasn’t hustling, but he looked like a below average runner. Lastly, I don’t get this vitriol with the Wilpons everytime a player doesn’t get signed by them? They have 4 shortstop prospects already in their top 20, plus Wilmer Flores. How many ss in our system do we need before the fanbase is happy? 20?
we need to prove we want to win
Scott tour right about the clueless. But unfortunately when you have no control over your finances, your finances control you. Just a note. Murphy and Gee add up to 13.3 million dollars so it’s less than say 4 million for a youngster with so much potential its sad for me to say I can’t envision Alderson getting Fred to okay this deal. Also Colon and his 11 million dollars comes off the books. So the Mets will have salary flexibility. Do they have the will? No. No. Never.
The Wilpons have created an organization focused on “meaningful games in September”. They have reduced the Mets and Met fans to second class status. That is the real travesty, and thinking that they would even consider making an expenditure like this is crazy. Too bad. The timing would have been perfect for him to take over at third base in a few years.
Great post. Maybe The bidding gets out of control but for the Mets to drop out before it begins is really telling.
Just for anyone curious about how he was graded, Bleacher report talked to a scout after his showcase who graded him out with 70 speed, 60 hit, 60 power, 60 arm and 50 field.
I don’t trust some anonymous scout especially one used by bleacher report. I feel like they’re kind of a joke, I’ll give you an example, they ranked the farm systems after the mlb season and the mets were ranked 4th. I looked at their updated rankings a week ago, mets are 5th. Keep in mind every team ahead of them except the twins traded away prospects this offseason. Also the twins are very top heavy with buxton and sano who both had injury plagued lost seasons. I don’t think any of the mets top prospects except maybe Puello regressed at all last yr in fact they progressed. Also, mets haven’t dealt one prospect this offseason, so how do they go down a rank?
Scott what do those numbers mean please? How do they compare?
I know you asked Scott, but let me respond sooner. Scouting combines grade players on a 20-80 scale. Only a super stud gets an 80, like Joey Gallo gets an 80 in power, Billy Hamilton gets an 80 in speed. It’s pretty hard to get an 80. Further, I have never seen anyone get lower than a 30 unless it’s like a catcher’s speed rating.
For example, Syndergaard has a 70 fastball, 65 off speed pitch, 50 curveball, 55 control, and his overall grade is 65 (can’t explain how they compute the overall).
Gus thanks for clearing that up. I think. lol.
Thanks Gus. Basically if you’re 50 and above on all categories, you’re a 5 tool player as there are no projected weaknesses. A 50 player across the board is projected to be an everyday player at the big league level. A 60 is a plus characteristic and 70 is about as good as you get, as Gus explained. It’s why Moncada is so intriguing as prospects don’t usually grade this high across the board.
Let’s just sum it up this way, whenever he signs, he will immediately rank as one of the top 5 to 7 prospects in Baseball.
For a more in depth read, Kiley McDaniel wrote a few articles regarding the basics of scouting.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/
It’s pretty obvious from my comments on here I detest the Wilpon’s, i’m not to crazy about Alderson although I must admit he wields a mean knife not to many can claim the successes he has had slashing payroll across three franchises while destroying them in the process. Riccardi after four + years I have yet to figure out what exactly he does? Depo is the one guy I have to give some credit as he is the one charged with building the farm and under his direction they have made good strides.
But this stuff, the blatant disregard for a booming legitimate market like the Cuban’s have established themselves as is what drives me crazy.
Great article Scott.
Scott, I agree with everything except the Moncada part.
The Wilpon-Alderson Mets need to address the present team, the present season, and make moves to win now.
I argued long and loud about Abreu, for example, who went cheap. Add the player to the current team, send a signal to the team, activate the fan base — to get excited not about “the future,” but about “the now.”
Given the Mets resources, I do think they need to be extra careful in how they spend. Unconvinced that Moncada fits that bill. Despite the awesome talent coming out of Cuba — and that will continue to flow — there is a little dissonance regarding the coachability of Puig, Cespedes, etc., to give anyone slight pause before laying down a huge sum of money.
There are many, many, many reasons why we should bash the Wilpons about their finances, but the Moncada issue is not one of them.
For a 19-year old who is still two years away, his signing bonus may go as high as $40 million (which would equate to a 100% tax of yet another $40 million) so that two years from now you have a league minimum SS for three years ($1.5 million) plus his three arbitration years (probably $5, $10, & $15 million each year).
This is $111.5 million over 7 years you are potentially shelling out ….. for a prospect? No prospect at 19 years old is worth this kind of money, and Alderson’s refusal to do so should, instead, be looked at as a sound business decision (based on risk/reward projections)
Within a week or so, fret not, Jeffy and Fred will give us some soundbyte quote to start making fun of them again 😉
Excellently researched article, but I agree I don’t think Moncada is the right fit. It’s a shame that the Mets are so far removed from even consideration, but that is the sad fact of our ownership.