In 2012 the Mets debuted Matt Harvey and the following year they introduced Zack Wheeler. Then last year the club brought up Jacob deGrom. Harvey and Wheeler came with all types of hype and deGrom wasn’t nearly as highly regarded. This time last year, if you asked the fan base which Mets pitcher was going to walk away with the Rookie of the Year Award, deGrom would have been everyone’s third choice.
It’s just a remarkable story and one that it feels like we somehow don’t fully appreciate. Sure, no one doubts how much of a fan favorite deGrom, with his long hair and outstanding pitching, has become. It’s just such a Cinderella story, especially compared to his highly-publicized teammates. Then factor in he allowed an inflated 23.2 line drive percentage and deGrom’s season is even more curious. A non-heralded guy comes on and wins the ROY for the Mets – how is that possible? This is the team that constantly gets criticized for over-hyping its prospects, isn’t it?
Now the trick becomes for deGrom to follow up his outstanding rookie season with an even better year in 2015. No pressure here. Will deGrom be able to be a co-ace with Harvey? Will he exceed Wheeler’s sophomore season? Or will he resemble Jason Isringhausen, who followed up his 9-2, 2.81 ERA rookie season with a 6-14, 4.77 ERA in his second big league season? Here’s what we think:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | LD% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 185 | 3.00 | 175 | 50 | 11 | 2.89 | 22.5 |
| Ferguson | 190 | 3.25 | 160 | 60 | 15 | 3.49 | 23.0 |
| Hangley | 190 | 3.07 | 159 | 58 | 10 | 3.13 | 23.7 |
| Joura | 179 | 2.30 | 198 | 55 | 8 | 2.49 | 17.9 |
| Koehler | 150 | 3.00 | 147 | 45 | 8 | 2.83 | 24.0 |
| Kolton | 136.1 | 3.70 | 124 | 51 | 12 | 3.65 | 25.8 |
| Newman | 185 | 3.30 | 170 | 55 | 10 | 2.96 | 21.0 |
| Parker | 175 | 3.35 | 165 | 55 | 10 | 3.00 | 19.5 |
| Rogan | 208 | 2.90 | 202 | 63 | 12 | 2.92 | 23.0 |
| Singer | 178 | 3.35 | 175 | 52 | 10 | 2.84 | 22.4 |
| Slape | 170 | 2.95 | 185 | 47 | 6 | 2.31 | 20.4 |
| Vasile | 175 | 3.30 | 173 | 43 | 14 | 3.00 | 22.0 |
| Walendin | 209 | 2.89 | 201 | 53 | 9 | 2.60 | 19.6 |
Not one of us sees him pulling an Isringhausen. But that’s not to say we’re all in agreement. There’s a 72.1 difference between the high and low IP totals and we have ERAs ranging from 2.30 to 3.70 from our group. No one sees him greatly beating his FIP; if anything we have people who think he will be fairly unlucky with his ERA in 2015. Birthday boy Dave Singer has him posting an ERA 51 points higher than his FIP while Tyler Slape forecasts him 64 points higher.
Here’s how we think he’ll do overall in 2015
We predict more innings for deGrom but not quite as successful as he was in 2014. Still, few should be disappointed if he turns in a season like we project. Only 25 pitchers in MLB last year threw at least 150 IP and had an ERA better than the 3.07 we forecast for deGrom. For a comparison, Stephen Strasburg had a 3.14 ERA last year and some guy named Max Scherzer put up a 3.15, albeit in the DH league.
Here’s how our forecast compares to others currently available on FanGraphs:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Met360 | 179.1 | 3.07 | 172 | 53 | 10 | 2.89 |
| Steamer | 163 | 3.92 | 145 | 52 | 17 | 3.70 |
| ZiPS | 174.1 | 3.30 | 159 | 53 | 12 | 3.21 |
Our forecast is the most optimistic one and again we’re closer to ZiPS than Steamer. The latter system is having a hard time with deGrom’s out of nowhere success. That’s not unexpected; the bullish forecast from ZiPS is the one that’s surprising.
Combined with Harvey, we predict the top two pitchers for the Mets to deliver 340 IP at a 3.04 ERA. Last year, the top two Mets pitchers delivered 390 IP at a 3.76 ERA. Most of us would probably trade quantity for quality at this rate.
Check back Wednesday for our next projection entry.
Brian, do you have “splits” on the LD % 1st “half” versus the rest of DeGrom’s season?
Early on, I thought he pitched in a little bit of trouble….seemed to have more base runners early, and I recollect lot’s of “wow…luckily it was hit right at_________”.
His latter half— more command…more attack… he had “take Out” pitches with both the Up Ladder FB and the curve/slider.
Among pitchers who had at least 50 IP, JDG had the third-highest LD% in the first half of the season with a 27.0 rate.
In the second half of the season, he had an 18.7 rate
OK…here’s a “simple splits” from Baseball reference—- First 12 starts—1.3 whip….last 12, 0.9something whip—amazing!!!!
Jake also threw 40-45 IP in Vegas last year, so the 140 IP number is misleading, since it only includes MLB numbers. He threw 147 IP in 2013. If he pitches as well as your consensus, that’s easily a 200 IP season. For a guy who threw 180 last year, that’s a reasonable expectation.
I assumed he was going to hit the DL at some point. I certainly hope I’m wrong, but his thin frame still leaves me a little skittish.
Id probably blend the ZIPS and Steamer projecting for my personal projection.
deGrom had a 9.2k/9 last year, which i’m not quite buying since he never posted a 7.5k/9 rate over any extended stretch in the minors. The high number is likely skewed by the last 2 starts, which included the game where he struck out 8 to begin the game. If you take out those 2 starts his k/9 was 8.57k/9. Zips has him at 8.2k/9 next year, which is a number i find reasonable.
deGrom is the Mets 1a stater in my eyes with a great future ahead of him. He got better as the season progressed but no one on the staff had the nerve to predict that he would have a better 2015. I read all the posts about how Flores hit for two months, or about TdA in the second half or how MDD increased his OBP and it is the new trend for that player. When there is a player that surprises us we are quick to think he can’t do it again. Well I think he can, so I’ll get on his bandwagon and predict 203 IP, 2.60 ERA, 200k, 62 BB, 10 HR, 2.58 FIP, 18.5 LD%.
I agree with Name, but would love to see Metsense be more accurate.
Would you folks trade deGrom for Jean Segura, maybe throw in a minor league prospect like Hutchinson?
I dont see why the Brewers would trade Segura, but let’s just say…
Jean Segura?!?
The guy who had a .614 OPS and a 0.3 fWAR last year? I know he was better in 2013 but that was out of line with his minor league record. There’s no way I’d trade JDG for him, much less throw something else in the deal.
Brian, he was brought up to AAA, maybe for a playoff push, at 19! And he hit .421. He has always had good minor league numbers and has been pushed getting to the majors at 21.
He is exactly what the Mets need. He had a bad year due to his son’s death, but came around in mid August to not be as bad as he was early. He has power, speed, and leads off as a SS.
That Triple-A stint was 8 games.
Edit – and he was 22 not 19. He certainly has more speed and is a better fielder but I’m not sold he has more power than Flores. I’ll cut him some slack because of his family crisis last year but I think 2013 is his upside and I’m not trading JDG for that.
On the flipside, i’d do that 1 for 1 swap in a heartbeat.
While he was terrible last year, I see much more growth potential from Segura in his age 25-28 seasons than deGrom, who is going to be playing next year at age 27.
And if we look at a comparison trade, Segura is a notch above Didi, who was traded for Shane Greene, who deGrom is a notch above as well.
If memory serves, you called Shane Greene a stiff. Hopefully you view JDG as more than a notch above a stiff.
I should have used a better word to imply that i think the “spread” between Segura and Didi is similar to Greene and deGrom.
Didi and Greene are $1 bills, Segura and deGrom are $5 bills.
Lifetime MLB totals
Player A — .243/.313/.366 with a (-3.3) UZR/150
Player B — .270/.311/.371 with a (-4.5) UZR/150
Which one is a $1 and which one is a $5 bill?
Didi has half as many games played as Segura.
Look at their minor league track record. Not even close which one is the better player.
Didi- 507 games, .277/.322/.389 721 OPS 44 SB 30 CS
1/5 of games are in the offensive rich PCL. Highest non-PCL OPS was .719 in A+
Segura-399 games, .313/.367/.439 807 OPS 139 SB 38 CS
You didn’t answer the question.
It’s great that Segura cleaned up in Rookie Ball. His most time at an advanced level is the 451 PA he has at Double-A, where he posted a .771 OPS. That’s a solid total for a middle infielder but nothing to get super excited about. The Sackmann MLE calculator is no longer available online but I’m guessing the MLE of that is even lower than Segura’s current lifetime MLB total of a .682 OPS.
Segura’s bad play is not limited to 2014. From June 1st to the end of the 2013 season, he had a .646 OPS with a .296 BABIP in 399 PA.
The whole case for him being a good offensive player is April and May of 2013. In those 224 PA, he had a .943 OPS with a .382 BABIP. He hit 8 of his 17 lifetime HR in those two months.
Forget JDG — I wouldn’t trade Dillon Gee for him.
SS scarcity.
I don’t think you’re giving enough adjustment for positional scarcity. Or possibly i’m giving too much credit for positional scarcity.
And well, you know my thoughts on Flores too. Even if Segura is only $3 compared to deGrom’s $5, the net gain from Segura + Montero/Syndergaard is much greater than deGrom/Flores. Unlike Sandy, i’m focused more on the bigger picture than “winning” trades.
I see him as similar to EY in terms of speed and bat, but with more power and can actually play SS with the potential for more. I see someone whose floor is something like Alcides Escobar and ceiling… well 2013.
I don’t think our disagreement revolves around positional scarcity. Where we’re on opposite ends of the spectrum is on expected output. You think Escobar is his floor while I think it’s his ceiling. Yesterday, I would have thought his ceiling was a bit higher than that. But having looked into him and knowing now that Segura in his last 10 months of on-field, MLB action (956 PA) has been worse than 2014 Ruben Tejada — it’s hard for me to muster any enthusiasm for him.
I would not trade deGrom for Segura. It’s not even remotely tempting.
I have a Pitcher under control and CheapCheap in the prime of his career….and he was good enough to win ROY!!!! Whether I’d trade him or not, I would not be concerned with his “growth potential”— I’m happy with the Fully Grown guy we have!!!!
I just noticed today that JdG has surpassed Kershaw and moved into the #2 spot on the all-time ERA+ leader board. The only person in the history of MLB who is currently above JdG in lifetime ERA+ is Mariano Rivera.
And JdG will pass Rivera in IPs in late July, given that Mariano spent 19 years with the Yanks, and JdG is in only his 8th season. Also, you know that you can’t really compare ERA (or ERA+) between one pitcher who has never relieved in a single game, and another who made 10 starts, all in his first season, and 1105 relief appearances.
So, just think of it, dudes – JdG is the Greatest Pitcher in the History of MLB in a very real sense (ERA+)