Mets’ General Manager Sandy Alderson and his top lieutenants held the floor at a team-sponsored gathering of season ticket holders last night. I’m told that all 15 people in attendance had a great time. I kid…I kid… Sometimes, even Mets’ devotees can’t resist a good “LOLMets” opportunity. In any case, Alderson took questions from the audience and hit on some of the salient points that have been percolating since the beginning of October. In the interest of full disclosure, your intrepid columnist wasn’t there. However, that won’t stop him from reading between the lines of the statements that have made their way into the interwebs from last night.
— The signing of Michael Cuddyer may have been with an eye toward a semi-near-future outfield featuring two of his number one draft picks, Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. Alderson specifically mentioned that Cuddyer’s contract is only two years, basically allowing time for Nimmo and Conforto to develop. While there wasn’t a mention of Curtis Granderson in this scenario, one would guess that Alderson’s preference would be to have the all home-grown trio of Conforto/Juan Lagares/Nimmo patrolling the Citi Field expanse and Granderson plying his trade elsewhere come 2017 or so.
— While the team was fairly busy in the shortstop market, either the talent available didn’t match the price tags or vice versa. Despite all the clamoring for the likes of Ian Desmond or Asdrubal Cabrera, the cost was prohibitive and – a direct quote from Alderson here – “[we] simply weren’t going to trade Noah Syndergaard.” Hence, the seeming stagnation.
— Bullpens by their nature are extremely difficult to predict, so sinking what limited resources were available after the Cuddyer signing into a left-handed reliever for its own sake would have been foolhardy.
— Matt Harvey will be rarin’ to go opening day, but will probably be held back until the home opener, six games hence. That made this plan-holder smile.
So look at the team and take a deep breath. This is the squadron with whom we fans will go to war. In light of Alderson’s comments – backpeddling, by the way, on his prediction that the team would be “ten-to-twelve games better” than last year and instead saying this team has the capacity to do that well – it’s clear that there will be no spring training blockbuster deal in the offing. It would appear the Mets will keep all their starting pitching, that Wilmer Flores will be the opening day shortstop, that Dillon Gee will pitch out of the bullpen for now.
Of course the bromide will be heard, “Well, if the team is in contention at the trade deadline, they can always make a deal then.” Right, because that’s happened so often the past five years. Look at 2012, when the team found itself 46-39 on July 7, 4.5 out of the division lead and a bare half-game from the Wild Card. The team did a big, fat nothing at the deadline and the Mets only won another 28 games the rest of the way. There is a very real possibility of a similar outcome this year – we have yet to see any evidence of ownership having recovered from its financial woes or the front office having any kind of stomach for improving the team on the fly.
So, this is it: there’s no cavalry coming.
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I hope for better, but unfortunately, I agree with every last word you wrote.
I’m calling bulls**t on the “not trading Syndergaard” line. I do not for one second believe that was the only option available. He’s just spinning, telling outright lies. I’d rather he just say, “We decided that Wilmer was our best option, all things considered.”
Either the farm system sucks in the eyes of rival GMs or Sandy is completely full of shit that teams only wanted Syndergaard.
Just once I wish someone would ask him why everyone has to have Noah if we have all these awesome prospects. Those dots do not connect.
In truth – regarding 2012: The fact that the Mets won only 28 games the rest of the way, after going 46-39, is actually testimony to their accurate assessment of their roster at the time. Their 28 wins in the remaining games pretty much tells you that the addition of a player at the expense of young prospects wasn’t going to yield a contender. I nail these guys for their ineptitude and for their lack of resources often, but in this case- they were right.
I think this is revisionist history.
The Mets showed every sign of being a flawed contender through the first half of the year. Their biggest need was a bullpen arm and a RH bat because they struggled against LHP.
So, with no reinforcements, the bullpen continued to suck and contributed to losses. And then three pitchers went on the DL and Dickey picked July to give up 19 ER in 26 IP.
Injuries and no reinforcements is what did in the 2012 team. I simply do not think it’s accurate to say that the end results justify no action. Alderson needed to make a move at the end of June — when the needs were well established — and he didn’t.
I totally agree, Brian. There’s a mentality around the Mets (and their fans) that any move is somehow — heaven forfend — mortgaging the future. Instead, it’s just sound business to address an area of clear weakness. One doesn’t need to “sell the farm” in order to simply try a little harder. Maybe it would not have worked, but fans (and players) would appreciate the effort.
Far too content to sink like a stone.
I don’t understand how you view this as revisionist history. Self-scouting and assessment is an important function. I don’t judge this management by what they say- only by what they actually do. This is to say- they fabricate and lie- but I don’t listen to that crapola. History, before and since, reveals that the roster the Mets had assembled was a sub-.500 team, in spite of the happy surprise of their 46-39 start in 2012. Injuries did take place, but depth of major league talent was a factor in the self assessment, and I suspect available $$ were also a factor. Simply adding a bat and a bullpen arm wasn’t likely to swing 14 additional wins to equal their 1st half winning pct of .541 – which, by the way, would have yielded 88 wins, if you believe that the .541 winning pct was actually a true reflection of the roster at the time. They also must have scouted the eventual division champ (Nats) which won 98 games. A team which has won 95 plus since then. So- I can’t believe that I’m going to bat for Sandy, but who would you have given up for the bat and the BP arm, simply based on what you knew then? Further, based upon what you know now- how would that have worked out? Wouldn’t we all be asking that question now, had they traded away prospects at that time? Is this not how, in part, how we judge a GM’s moves?
If you search our archives – plenty was written about this at the time. At the end of June, the Mets Pythagorean record was right in line with their actual record.
If Alderson would have said – I don’t want to invest in this team because Dickey is going to crap the bed in July and Santana and Gee are both going to wind up on the DL and sink the season anyway — that would have been one thing. But this never entered into the discussion. Instead, he sat on his hands because he was afraid to ship out C-level prospects and the bullpen continued to stink. There were multiple bullpen guys who were dealt at this time for very little in return.
If the Mets are seven games over .500 and a half-game out of the Wild Card in 2015 like they were in 2012 — I hope Alderson pulls the trigger this time.
“Simply adding a bat and a bullpen arm wasn’t likely to swing 14 additional wins to equal their 1st half winning pct of .541”
You likely haven’t heard of the butterfly effect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
Brian Joura- is it possible for you to incorporate some third party currency exchange engine into this blog in order to enable me to buy “Name” a brewski for his “butterfly-effect” manifesto? Just add another button 1st button: “Reply” 2nd Button: “Buy a round.” I think you need to make this happen 😉
Shoot – I love Name like he was my brother. But if I’m going to institute some type of currency exchange, it would be to benefit me, not him.
The World Champion Giants only had 88 wins going into the playoffs. The Royals only 89. Management showing a little faith in the team sometimes provides incentive to play a little harder, care a little more. I hear a lot of people complain the Mets have no fire. If the higher ups would show that it is willing to pull the trigger on needs to make the team more competitive, we may gain some. Players playing with more desire equals more wins, equals happier fans, equals more butts in the seats. And maybe, just maybe we would be watching a team playing every night in a winning atmosphere rather than the pessimism that I see in the ballpark and comment sections such as these.
The Mets are a team caught between development of Lagares, d’Arnaud, Flores, and Duda and the veteran “stability” of Murphy, Cuddyer, Wright, and Granderson. They don’t know what to expect overall and the problem is that they’re willing to gamble that all their horses come in.
I don’t undertand why they didn’t take last year to play MDD in the outfield, Flores at short, and see once and for all what they have. This half rebuild / half contending is just perplexing. Had they passed on the great Curtis Granderson to play MDD and played Flores starting last May when he came up, we would know where we stand with both players and Granderson wouldn’t be clogging up a spot to hit sixth.
It may sound like 20/20 hindsight but he was always a high strikeout, low average hitter. They billed him as cleanup hitter to protect Wright but quickly realized that like all the free agent acquisitions, he was another screw up.
If you have a fiscally challenged budget like the Mets you cannot have Gee and his 5.3 million dollars pitching out of the pen under any circumstances. It would be insane and criminal. It diminishes his value if and when you try to trade him. Please Charlie let’s hope Alderson stops asking for the moon in exchange for Gee before Opening Day and accepts lesser prospects
“Alderson specifically mentioned that Cuddyer’s contract is only two years, basically allowing time for Nimmo and Conforto to develop”
Is Alderson trying to sell us this crap again?
Last year, he signed (overpaid) Colon for 2 years under the same premise. Yes, we had a need at SP the time, but most of us projected to have Montero and Thor ready by midseason, with Harvey and Hefner able to return in 2015. Well, it didn’t quite play out exactly that way, but as predicted, we now have a glut at SP (which he refuses to resolve)
This year, he signed (overpaid) Cuddyer for 2 years as well. We do have a need right now, but Nimmo should be ready for a September callup (if not sooner) this year and possibly full time next year. Conforto should also debut sometime next year. Add in the fact that we still have Kirk and Mdd (and Puello if you still believe in that), and it’s another projected glut next year (and i have no confidence in him resolving)
And while he didn’t create this situation himself, it also took him forever to resolve the 1b situation.
Meanwhile, we have a need at SS and our potential heir apparent has only played 7 games at A-ball, but for some reason he refuses to overpay for a SS. Was he secretly hoping that Jeter wouldn’t retire so he could sign him for, you guessed it, a 2 year deal?
Did someone tell Sandy that PEDs are banned nowadays? Can he just come out and tell us that he has no friggin clue how to operate in the post-steroid era?
This is not to mention what year 4 of Curtis Granderson will look like.
yikes!
Might Curtis be J’Bayed in Flushing?
Even the new dimensions might mean little to his eroding skills.
Granderson was consistently bad, save one small stretch of play.
Granderson’s OPS by month:
.468 in April
.838 in May
.933 in June
.753 in July
.415 in August
.918 in September
What do you make of those numbers, Brian? Anything?
I think of the old mother goose rhyme:
“When she was good, she was very, very good;
When she was bad, she was horrid.”
I posted the numbers by month to show that Granderson was good for much longer than “one small stretch.”
I feel it’s at least somewhat comforting that Granderson rebounded from two horrid stretches to post very strong numbers.
My take here is to at least start the season optimistic that Granny can put up a .750 OPS over the entire season.
Based on what they did with Conforto last year (Brooklyn!) he is on track for a 2020 debut. A year ago people scoffed at me when I said the earliest we would see Syndergaard was July 2016. Now, sure enough, this supposedly super prospect is repeating AAA.
This front office holds back players, and it makes the work done on the farm system look better than it is. How would the Cardinals system rank if they included Wacha? Or the Marlins uf Alex Fernandez was still in the minors? SA took over in October 2010 and not one player this regime drafted or signed is targeted for New York. Again.
To be clear, I am not saying we do not have any prospects. My point is that I am not impressed with the job everyone keeps applauding this front office about, “building the farm.”
When you consider that we have made multiple trades of major league talent for prospects and traded zero prospects away I don’t see enough to be impressed. After punting away four straight years I would have hoped we would have had more.
I am with you, my brother. It’s so much easier when you don’t have any concern at all for the present. No desire to win, to compete. So he didn’t make trades to help the ML team, didn’t sign free agents, just stockpiled prospects.
The ranking of farm systems is always dubious at best. For a while there, after Sandy traded away Dickey and Beltran, the Mets vaunted farm system was propelled toward the top — but not for anything they actually did in terms of drafting or developing. I mean, sure, it’s good that we got d’Arnaud, Syndergaard, Wheeler, etc. But it does not say one single thing about this management group’s ability to “build” a farm system.
Conversely, if you trade away 2-3 prospects for ML talent, then your system falls in the rankings — again, with absolutely no relationship to the quality of your ability to draft and develop young talent. It’s lame, actually.
Humor me for one moment.
Let’s say Flores isn’t a complete disaster at SS, the team has a normal amount of injuries and finishes 2015 with 85 wins and outside of the playoffs.
2016 the team wins 90 games and makes the postseason, a feat (playoffs) they accomplish each year for the rest of the decade.
What’s the narrative then?
It’s too dependent upon unknowns to imagine any meaningful narrative now. If they win a World Series, it’s great; if the Yankees win one with Harvey it’s a different story.
The issue with Sandy has always been that he has this legion of True Believers who see him as beyond criticism. For me, I’ve always seen him as a mixed bag, some good things, some bad things. He’s mostly concentrated on the easy part of the job; anybody can not spend money and put up losing seasons year after year while stockpiling draft picks. Trading a Cy Young winner is not that difficult a task. Trading good players to teams that are trying to win — while you have absolutely no interest in that outcome — is not that difficult.
But the pitching is real. No, he did not bring in Harvey, deGrom, Familia, Mejia, Neise, Gee, Matz or Montero. But he did trade for Syndergaard and Wheeler and that’s something.
The 1983 Mets drew 1.1 million fans.
The 1985 Mets drew 2.7 million fans.
I think winning brings the fans in – it’s important to note that these are paid attendance numbers and actual AIS in 1983 was significantly lower – and makes it possible to afford retaining the stars, even with the significant debt that the club carries.
My opinion is that if Harvey leaves the Mets to join the Yankees after the 2018 season, that it will be because his dream is to pitch in the Bronx, not that the Mets couldn’t afford him.
Also, trading a 38 year old knuckleball pitcher, with a lifetime 61-56 record is not quite the same thing as trading Clayton Kershaw. Alderson pulled off with the Dickey trade what we almost always talk about only in the abstract — sell high. He sold Dickey at the absolute high point of his value and got a tremendous package in return. This particular trade was not easy and I’m confident that not every GM could have done what he did.
Brian what if the Wilpons and Alderson are gone by 2018? Does Harvey stay?
I’m not in the camp that thinks that Harvey walks the first chance he gets.
By the time Harvey’s eligible for free agency, Granderson’s contract is off the books and Wright starts making about $5 million fewer. That’s nearly $20 million right there. And that doesn’t even take into account an improving financial situation due to increased attendance due to winning more games than they lose.
My opinion is that we worry about 2015 and not what may or may not happen by 2018.
It’s fine for a collegiate draft pick to play the year he’s drafted in a rookie ball league. The key is where they put him the following year.
Ouch! Name did you say that? Not to mention the 7.25 million he wasted on Chris Young. By the way why can’t Alderson sign a FA with some incentives in place rather than throwing ridiculous sums of money at them? If he has to over pay for any FA to come to Queens why bother? The team was “rebuilding” anyway.
Gus- which “half” has been contending? 😉
The only complaint I have is that we didn’t get a big-named shortstop. That being said, I’m glad Wilmer will get a chance in the everyday lineup. If he makes the routine plays, there’s nothing to be upset about.
I hope if they are willing to deal some pitchers in order to add talent if the team is in a postseason run. I’d like to hold on to Matz and Syndergaard, but that’s all teams are asking for now.
If the team is in the wild card race would that change Alderson’s thought process about move any of the youngsters? To me there are just too many moving parts here. We’ll just have to wait and see.
100% Agreed on “ranking of farm systems”. It’s a hackneyed phrase to upon which to hang meaningless “copy” to fill the pages in publications and websites hungry for material. It’s fools-gold. Meaningless and worthless. Draft a Gooden or Wacha and move him to the majors with great results is the real paydirt.
If someone calls me up to tell me to tone it down or check with me first before you do anything It would leave a sour taste in my mouth. Treating Harvey like a child when he’s talking to the press is sure not winning any brownie points. And so long as Scot Boras remains his agent he’s going to walk even if the Mets are able to match any offer he might get. So here’s hoping Harvey regains his form in 2015 and brings Met fans some relief.
The care & handling of Matt Harvey will become a fascinating issue down the road, provided he comes back to being . . . the Matt Harvey we remember.
His presence alone makes the Mets an extremely dangerous team in the playoffs, to the point that you’d be loathe to trade him away prematurely. At the same time, he’s a Boras client and, if healthy, he’s going to seek the ten-year, $250 million contract, which does not seem in keeping with the team’s current philosophy (even if the money magically appeared). At which point, you have to wonder what he’d be worth on the open market with two years left on his contract. Or with just one year on his contract. Traded at the right time, he’d bring back quite a lot of young, cheap talent. Just consider what the Mets got for R.A. Dickey. There’s also the point of view that you squeeze every last game out of him in a Mets uniform. These are tough decisions; too early really to speculate. But: I guess I am.
I would like to see Harvey pitch well and win 15-17 games. After that I would love to see Boras and Alderson in arbitration! The stats would be flying.
Success: .500+ baseball + Exciting young players = Attendance (=$$$). Let’s say the Mets establish themselves as a +.500 team, contending on the edges, with interesting contributions from the youth. The attendance rises, the $$$ begin to flow… In this scenario, will the ownership and management spend, trade, and do the things to put them in a position to compete?
No. The Wilpons still carry milllions in debt and have to make interest payments on that. If the Wilpons were in good shape financially they would have done it this past off season when the new MLB national contracts went into effect and All teams saw an increase from 25 to 50 million dollars. What did the Wilpons do? Cut more payroll out! After trading Ike Davis in May the Mets payroll came down to 80 million dollars! How’s that for re-investing in the team! The Giants have one crucial edge over the Mets. They have a damn good manager who knows how to put his players in the best possible position to win. As for KC? It helps a manager when you have 3 pitchers in the bullpen who are lights out. Shortens the game and lessens the strain on your starters having to go deep into games.