“We have quality players at every position,” Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson boasted to the media last week. “One of the reasons we’ve been fairly quiet is we’ve got players with the potential to improve us by 10 games, which is what we need. So we’re comfortable going into spring training and excited actually to see those players and see what kind of step forward they take, and whether that can translate into 10 or 12 more games for us in the win column.”
He said 10-12 wins, didn’t he? That would put us at an 89-91 win season, usually enough to make the playoffs as a wildcard team. Sounds great and, like most of you reading this, I wish I shared Alderson’s optimism.
Had he signed or traded for a leadoff hitter, cleanup hitter or Gold Glove shortstop to improve this fledgling team, I’d be right there with him, shouting playoffs or bust! However, with the exception of one aging, injury prone hitter, Alderson has brought back essentially the sam team that finished under .500 last year and the five years prior. Oh wait, we also got rid of our one speedy player in Eric Young, Jr.
I hear you all behind your computer screens saying, “but Matt Harvey, David Wright and Bobby Parnell are all healthy and Curtis Granderson will bounce back and the Braves and Phillies are rebuilding.” Yes, and they moved the right field wall in, Shake Shack went public and Mr. Met got married.
I hope like crazy that those guys do bounce back and that the Phillies and Braves stink up the joint. But, even if all those variables pan out, how about all of the other questions this team is facing?
Is Wilmer Flores going to blossom into an adequate fielding/strong hitting shortstop? Are Michael Cuddyer and Jon Niese going to be able to contribute even half a season without needing surgery? Can an infield with three third baseman and a DH not lead the league in errors? Can a bullpen with one decent lefty get the job done? Since this team has no speed and little power but management is obsessed with walks, will we lead the league in runners stranded? Will we be able to win more than 3 or 4 games against the Nats?
I look at this team and I see a lot of young, unproven players, flawed players, and guys coming off serious injuries. I do believe the pitching will be really good and I know that goes a long way, as evidenced by the even year run of the San Francisco Giants, last year’s Kansas City Royals and recent seasons from the Tampa Bay Rays. But those teams could play defense and weren’t counting on so many ifs, maybes and questions.
Alderson’s optimism is colored by his biggest motivation, to sell tickets. Unfortunately, optimism is a lot like ifs and maybes – nice to talk about but it doesn’t equal wins.
Translated. We’re over budget so I hope that the crucial signing of a 36 year-old injury plagued right fielder is more than enough to put us in position for a wild card. Geez! What a joke! And the best part is it’s on us. So if the team fails to meet expectations who is Alderson going to trade? No one. Who is Alderson going to fire? Collins? Big deal? By the way didn’t Sandy say the same thing behind closed doors to his bosses last year? Did he address the lack of a lead off hitter this off season? No. The Mets need to play at least .500 at home and have someone step up in clutch situations for this team to have any hopes of having meaningful games this September.
It is a team that went 42-35 from July 4th through end of the season. .545 winning percentage. 88 wins prorated. But I guess negativity rules the day with a battered fan base.
.500 ball in July/August.
Then 15-10 in September when the only playoff contender they faced were 7 games against the Nats (and were 2-5)
That September story is often not remembered from last year. The Braves finally gave up the ship in Sept as well. Ordinarily we don’t go into the Atl in September and sweep them.
Reality does not always = negativity. Sandy has to be optimistic to encourage ticket sales. But realistically if the Mets overachieve they will win around 84 games. Again, that requires overachievement in many areas. We can’t pretend results happen on their own. There will be some guys who will surprise and there will be some guys who disappoint and that will balance out to be near .500 given the realistic talent level.
We will always be subject to the ego of GMs who pour a ton of money on someone who does not produce, yet continues to get playing time due to the contract size. It is a tough position to be in.
I do not see Cuddyer being an upgrade due to his age and history of injuries. If he is healthy and proves me wrong, I will cheer him on. What I don’t want is to see a repeat of Chris Young story, where one with a contract so big that he must get playing time, though undeserved happen to…Cuddyer and Granderson.
I’d rather see them cut their losses and try something else.
For Granderson to be successful this year would be for him to shock us. He has been declining and Sandy bought into the declination. (Good thing he is not buying stocks for us…we should be going short on aging athletes, but especially those with injury)
I am glad that Noah S didn’t go in a package for an injury prone shortstop. I think he has the tools to be something very special for us.
Is it possible that a strong off season and a surprise Spring could give Nimmo and/or Conforto a chance to travel north? If both have built on muscle this winter and have strong Spring training…
What of Kevin P as catcher? If he begins hot, is he solid trade bait?
I recognize that a healthy Cuddyer could make an impact, but our corners are weak; perhaps even weaker than the oft quoted SS position. Perhaps adequate defense by Wilmer will be enough if he hits .280 and knocks in runs.
With the pitching staff we have, including the potential to move a starter into the bullpen, I get why the Post and DN criticizes the front office for not solidifying the team into something stronger.
Neither Nimmo nor Conforto will be in Queens this year.
One thing to keep in mind is that Nimmo needs to be added to the 40-man roster following the 2015 season. After what we saw with The Dilson this past year, we can’t completely rule out Nimmo getting a call, too.
Still wouldn’t wager on it.
There is a scenario where, with some breaks, if everything goes right, he’s correct and the Mets make the playoffs. It’s absolutely possible.
I just think they should have done more to improve those (slim) odds. I also am not a believer in the long-term efficacy of the “great pitching/crappy defense” model. Is this the slowest team in MLB?
I don’t predict wins until the end of Spring Training. Let’s see where we are at after these guys take the field.
Wasn’t he optimistic last year? 90 wins! New season same story!
One positive thing I do see going into this season is no signing of “washed up” relievers. One of the big reasons for losing record during the first part of last year.
I also optimistic so I hope Sandy’s is Wright.
Matt,
I love your description of the infield—three 3Bmen and a DH. To justify this each infielder will have to be very highly productive with the bat.
By the time the Mets have Dom Smith, Dilson Herrera and Ahmed Rosario in the infield, poor David Wright will probably be too old to lead the charge. And the Wilpons will be in the process of shedding their vaunted pitching staff because of budgetary restrictions.
Echoing a lot of the comments by saying it’s Sandy’s job to pump up the fan base. Doesn’t make it a realistic expectation. If everyone stays healthy and progresses, sure, a 10-win uptick is possible. But we are thin in terms of major league-ready OF depth. If Cuddyer or Duda miss any time (assuming Cuddyer would fill in at 1B if Duda goes down) then here comes Nieuwendekker. When Conforto or Nimmo is ready to step in for an injured Met, then I’ll breathe easier.
I’m also concerned about a regression season from Lagares.
The pitching is great, especially since we may have to win a lot of 2-1 games.
Sandy’s talking about perfection, which rarely happens over a 162-game season.
If Syndergaard and Matz are the real deal, then the best thing Sandy can do is trade Gee or Niese for some solid OF depth.
I’m ver concerned about the infield defense. However, maybe someone on here can explain to me why I keep reading “infield defense is especially important behind a strong pitching staff”? Isn’t infield defense equally important regardless of pitching quality or any other factors?