Is there a single linchpin to the Mets 2015 season? A number of writers seem to think there’s a lot riding on Wilmer Flores panning out as our shortstop. Others point to a healthy return by David Wright or Matt Harvey. A bounce back season from Curtis Granderson has also been identified as a linchpin. One blogger tagged a breakout season by Travis d’Arnaud as the key ingredient. The same could be said for Juan Lagares.
In truth, there may not be a single linchpin to the Mets success and this is a good thing to report as that’s an indication of organizational depth.
In general terms, the most important wild card factor for this team is health, though most teams can say the same. More specifically, for the Mets to sniff the playoffs in 2015 it is essential that the following players stay off the disabled list – Lagares, Duda, Wright, Granderson and Michael Cuddyer.
There’s enough pitching depth where an injury or two to the rotation or bullpen wouldn’t derail us. If d’Arnaud goes down, Kevin Plawecki could get called up to take his spot behind the plate and probably fill in capably. Similarly, if Flores or Daniel Murphy gets injured, we have options – Ruben Tejada on the bench, Dilson Herrera and Matt Reynolds in triple A, or, gasp, finally trade for a shortstop from our pitching depth.
if Wright or Duda go down, our options include juggling the infield with Murphy or Flores moving over and either Tejada playing every day or Herrera coming up. Defensively, this wouldn’t be a big hardship but this would weaken our lineup significantly.
The same could be said for an outfield injury as the backups to Granderson and Cuddyer present a huge step down offensively. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Matt DenDekker and John Mayberry, Jr. could all fill in admirably with their gloves, but they are all platoon players who are limited to at-bats from one side of the plate.
Lagares is simply the best defender on this team and while Nieuwendekker can play centerfield they can’t replace Lagares’ gold glove and they can’t bat leadoff.
As for Mets outfield prospects like Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo, neither is ready for the show yet. Maybe next year one of them will be the linchpin, but for now it’s all about the health of our bats.
Matt makes several good points and I wonder if one has been over-looked a tad: “if Travis goes down…” perhaps, by history, is “when Travis goes down with an injury…” Kevin Plawecki could get the call up.
Travis D is history prone to injury. If Plawecki is called up and hits well, and holds his own defensively (reports are that he is better defensively), sudden trade bait value increases.
Thanks for an interesting article, Matt. Pitchers and Catchers, soon!
Agree completely. The key to the season is health, especially in the outfield. Of course, the same could be said for most other teams. But it feels like the Mets have a particularly large gap between the major league team and its top position prospects.
I think MDD would get the call to play CF in the event of a Lagares injury and they would look to platoon the other OF spots, such as a Kirk/Puello or MDD/Puello mix. All of the players struggle against same handed hitting, but have shown (at least in the minors) that each of them can pound opposite handed pitching. Not ideal, but there are back up solutions that wont destroy the defense and an offensive platoon that might match production
MDD would replace Lagares both in CF and leading off, and we would not notice a drastic difference if any at all. Except he’d likely hit better against RHP and worse against LHP. Kirk and Mayberry would fill in for the corner OF slots in a straight platoon if either Cuddyer or Grandy went down and it would likely be effective. In fact, our defense would improve. The key is not losing more than 1 player at a time. The biggest loss in my opinion would be Duda. There’s no one who can replace his power or on base skills in the cleanup slot.
It’s wonderful and all they have so much depth in the minors, but at some point they need to s**t or get off the pot. There’s talent galore in the minors, but the team in Queens is borderline capable of winning a wild card berth.
Sandy and co. really need to come up with a long-term plan, determine who’s expendable and move forward – even if it means having a linchpin or two.
Look at the Nats outfield. Wven thought they have a very solid 3 players in Werth, Harper and Span, they also have a pretty solid 4th outfielder in Nate McLouth. I’ve long thought a 4th outfielder is a very important piece of a winning team. Outfielder injuries are pretty common and not just because you have 3 of them. When you have two starters in their 30s and the other an acrobatic gold glover, odds are at least one is going to get injured. I just wish we had a better fallback.
Wilmer Flores is not the linchpin is correct. Only three Mets have ever posted a 5+ WAR, Wright, Granderson and Harvey. Granderson doesn’t look capable of ever doing that again. Wright had two consecutive 5+ WAR seasons before last seasons injury. Harvey posted a 6 WAR in 2013 prior to his surgery. Harvey, even coming off surgery could post a 4+ WAR and if his recovery slows him down there is plenty of good pitchers on the squad. Wright needs to have a healthy season and bounce back to a 5+ WAR. There is no one on this team that can fill the three hole in the order with power and a batting average to replace Wright. Wright is the linchpin because without a healthy productive Wright the Mets will not make the playoffs.
The #1 linchpin is hitting. The Mets strike out too much, and rarely get the big hit when needed. The pitching is exciting, but losing 2-1 won’t be. Just being realistic
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Don’t forget if Duda goes down, then Cuddyer can move to first, and we’ll get lots better defense in RF from any assortment of platoon.
I’m just not as high on MDD as a lot of other Mets fans. i think he’s a terrific fielder but the idea of him or Newy playing regularly scares me. I don’t think their bats are strong enough. They both resemble 5th OF defensive replacement types to me, like our old friend Endy Chavez.