Sandy Koufax once called pitching the art of instilling fear. It’s reputed to win championships. And in New York, it’s one of the few strengths entering 2015.
Both the starting rotation and the bullpen have a number of powerful options and plenty of depth to keep the Mets among the best in baseball. But when it comes down to naming which options to play, especially in the five-man rotation, that gets a little tricky.
Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom are the three gimmes for the average 2015 rotation. Yes, Harvey has missed a full year and will likely miss a few more games early this season, but 24-year-old Cy Young candidates always get the benefit of the doubt. When he last pitched, Harvey’s 5.2 wins above replacement (WAR) were worth 70 times his $498,700 salary. But if the Mets sign him to an elite, long-term deal, he’ll need to maintain his ridiculously low walk rate – 1.6 BB per 9 innings pitched (IP) – and high strikeout rate – 9.6 K per 9 IP.
Wheeler and deGrom both could be considered for the No. 2 starter role, but experience trumps accolades in my mind. Wheeler is entering his second full-season, following a 2014 campaign where he shoved major improvement in the second half. His numbers last year aren’t impressive at a glance – 3.54 ERA, 1.327 WHIP and 0.9 WAR – but that includes a 2.23 ERA over 64.1 innings in July and August. Wheeler also improved his peripherals: 3.8 BB per 9 IP from 4.1; 9.1 K per 9 IP from 7.6; and 0.7 home runs per 9 IP from 0.9. If he can become more efficient, a 2015 campaign with an ERA around 3 and WHIP close to 1 is very possible from the 25-year-old righty.
The Mets first Rookie of the Year recipient since Dwight Gooden in 1984 is the third starter to automatically receive a full-time gig. Once an under-the-radar name in the Mets’ farm system, just a few years removed from playing shortstop in college, deGrom burst onto the scene in 2014. He consistently throws strikes and has plus power stuff to mix with breaking balls, leading to a 9.2 K per 9 IP rate and collecting 3.1 WAR at the league minimum salary. A sophomore slump is a real possibility as hitter’s see more than just 140.1 innings, but his ability to get strikes and groundballs should limit the damage in 2015.
So who holds down the remaining two rotation jobs for New York in 2015? Of the remaining options, Jon Niese makes the most sense and deserves playing time. As the only southpaw of the group, he sports one of the lowest OPS allowed by lefties. Niese competed in his fifth full major league season, showing hints of 2012 when he appeared to be more than just a late-inning option. If he can keep the walk rate closer to 2 per 9 innings pitched, it should go a long way towards another sub-3.50 ERA and sub-1.3 WHIP.
The fifth and final slot in the Mets’ rotation comes down to a gamble. Bartolo Colon has a lengthy track record of winning with a 2.5 WAR each year on average. But at the youthful age of 42 and earning $11 million this season after finishing with just half a win above replacement last year, his resurgence may be over. Dillon Gee doesn’t sport the same level of reward, but is a much lower risk. The former Mets farmhand only earned 0.7 WAR after 2.2 WAR in 2013, but his $3.63 million salary makes that and a 4.00 ERA in 2014 easier to swallow. Four full seasons at the big time suggest Gee is a good No. 5 pitcher with an ERA around 4 in 151 IP and mediocre peripherals. The front office will likely trade Gee – or convert him to the swing man in the pen – and start Colon since the former comes with a lower price tag and the latter is a much higher risk and reward this late in his career.
In theory, prospect Rafael Montero could be considered for a starting job in Queens, although that seems suspect for now. The 24-year-old lost his trademark control in four starts before the All-Star break, earning a demotion. He recovered enough in the second half to pick up his first win and a post-break 2.96 ERA. But with control still an issue, he needs either more time starting in Triple-A or pitching out of the bullpen in the majors.
If you’re brave – click on the image to enlarge it. An upside down Bartolo Colon is not for the weak of heart…
Yikes! Always forget he’s such a big man.
Looks like I unconsciously oriented my favorite options with the logo. Look carefully and you’ll see Gee and Colon underneath.
For what it’s worth, I have them as #1 deGrom, #2 Harvey, #3 Niese, #4 Wheeler (for 2015, that is). Here’s hoping I look really dumb on the guys you think I’m underrating, and really smart on the guys you think I’m overrating.
Too bad Niese has a suspect arm — he’d be an ideal long man on this staff of RH pitchers. I just don’t think his arm suits the role however.
Sandy has got to do something here. But whenever I think that, he surprises me.
So now deGrom he of the lifetime 22 ML starts is a sure thing and Harvey of the 36 ML starts coming off major arm surgery is as well?
I hope so as does every Met fan on the planet but I don’t see how they can be put in the sure thing category yet.
Why yes, he is a sure thing. And so is Harvey. Both are sure things to deserve a job in the starting five in 2015. That’s all this is.
Personally, I’m expecting deGrom to take a few steps back, but it’s part of the learning experience. Hoping Harvey doesn’t have any lingering health injuries and steamrolls the competition.
Hi Mike, don’t know your age but deGrom is as sure a thing as Mike Vail was, if you don’t recognize the name look it up in Mets history.
If you are only talking about what they will probably be handed because our team is weak and their short past performances yes I agree. But let’s realize that at this time last year Montero was the odds on fav to get the first rotation spot and deGrom was not much more than an afterthought possibly headed to the bullpen in September if he had a good year in AAA.
There is as much chance that deGrom ends up in the bullpen by years end and Montero, Matz, Syn in the rotation as deGrom staying in the rotation and one of these others or more in the pen.
“deGrom is as sure a thing as Mike Vail was”
BS
Vail didn’t walk, had no power and succeeded thanks to a .377 BABIP
JDG has a full mix of pitches, with a 94 mph fastball, a changeup that’s a terrific swing-and-miss pitch and both a curve and a slider. His FIP was just as good as his ERA – so he wasn’t anywhere near the beneficiary of luck that Vail was.
I can’t believe anyone who watched him pitch last year would think he had a 50-50 shot of winding up in the pen. That’s the type of thing I wish I could bet on in Vegas.
So if he was that great of a prospect why was he considered pretty much a bullpen piece up until he wasn’t. Until last year his average era in the minors was 3.62 across 4 seasons yet his mid 2’s in 22 starts in the ML’s is the true indicator?
It might be, but that he is a lock is as far fetched as any of the other many if’s you guys keep touting that will make us contenders.
Let’s see – came late to pitching, missed time because of TJ surgery and in the minors developed new pitches. It’s an extremely rare thing to happen but it is what it is. Here’s a good story if you don’t know the background.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-jacob-degrom-is-better-than-we-thought-hed-be/
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with going into this season with skepticism that he’ll be able to maintain an ERA that low. But there’s just such a huge gulf between a 2.69 ERA and a bullpen assignment, especially when his peripherals support him being a good SP.
Mike Vail over five seasons in the minors had a 296 average with 358 OBP a 459 slugging% and an 817 OPS. In his two last years at AA and AAA before being called to the majors by the Mets he slashed 334/396/502/889 and 342/394/494/888 ….. no power, didn’t walk?
Really?
It’s a rare prospect who does better in the majors than he does in the minors. An .817 OPS in the minors – with those BABIPs — is absolutely nothing to get excited about. And in 1975 he had a .118 ISO which was just about his career average in the majors (.121). His 1975 walk rate was 5.3%. His MLB career walk rate was 4.8%.
The only thing different about 1975 compared to the rest of his career was his hyper-inflated BABIP. And if you think his minor league numbers indicated he was better than he showed in ’75 then you need to read up on MLEs.
When the Mets rotation is Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Matz then the Mets will surely be a force to reckon with. I hope Syndergaard is lights out this spring and forces his way into the rotation. I also hope that this Spring the best five, whoever they are, make up the starting rotation and salary be damned.
If Syndergaard and Montero are equally lights out in the Spring, I would hope the rotation spot would go to Montero, who has already good starts in the majors on his resume.
You really think they’ll hand one of the starting jobs to the kid when they’ve got guys pulling in millions? Have you met the Wilpons or Sandy Alderson yet :p
Why do we still have 7 pitchers for 5 spots? I think it’s finally time to talk about how crappy of an offseason it’s been for Alderson. I gave him the benefit of the doubt 2 months ago and assumed he would move Gee for something. But now it’s 1 week til pitchers and catchers report and we’re still stuck with the same problem.
I don’t get how Sandy thinks it’s better to have 7 pitchers and 2 SS rather than 6 pitchers (with more waiting in the minors) and 3 SS.
I agree Name.
The met payroll is restricted and Sandy could have moved an expensive spare part in Gee at 5M for the .5M Escobar, who is an experienced starting shortstop for the Twins, is rated defensively higher than both Flores and Tejada and offensively put up an OPS+ of 102 . Adding depth from excess at a weak organizational position would seem to make sense while at the same time cutting expenditures.
To compound the budget problem, he signed Colon and his 20M when Montero could have used the experience in 2014. I don’t think it it really mattered that a rebuilding Mets team finished in second place in 2014.
He lost all value on Ike Davis by not being able to decide between Davis/Duda and it appears that the same is happening with Gee.
I agree that he should have flipped Gee for Escobar.
But perhaps we’re looking at this in a vacuum. Maybe while that offer was made, he was in the middle of the three-way deal for Desmond and thought that he had a decent shot of pulling it off.
Could it be that he thought 8 SP (Harvey, JDG, Wheeler, Niese, Colon, Gee, Montero, Synderaard) and 2 SS was better than 6 SP and 4 SS?
Maybe by the time the Desmond deal fell apart, the Twins had already moved on and were no longer in the market for a SP. They signed Ervin Santana as a free agent somewhere in this mix.
Is Gee for Escobar a big enough upgrade to cut off talks for Desmond? They say a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush but Alderson clearly didn’t feel that way.
Personally, I would have cut off talks for Desmond at that point and made the deal. While Desmond>Escobar, I’m not sure he’s worth what they were asking for in trade. But with the way it’s worked out, it means we’re still in the hunt for Tulo if he comes back from the hip injury and the Rockies are ready to deal him in May, like the Dodgers/Marlins did with Piazza or June like the Cardinals did with Hernandez. Or the actual trade deadline.
I’m very happy we have a plethora of starters. Seems strange people are worried about that given that every year teams need 7-9 starters to get through the season.
I think that the story is about brining up genuine quality front line starters versus benching or sticking vets in the pen. It’s a lot of money to take back end starters and hide them. And no one wants to delay Syndergaard (or Matz) from being a front line guy. It’s just an odd group of arms.
Delay in bringing them up = more time under financial control once they come up. Remember who controls the purse strings whenever you talk about the Mets.
Are you happy we have a dearth of Shortstops? Seems strange that people aren’t worried about that given that Flores was booted off the position multiple times and hasn’t shown he can hit, Tejada is ideally a backup, and Reynolds was an afterthought until last year.
Depth is good, but there there is such a thing as having too much. Like Chris said, a starting-caliber shortstop is a better than placing a starter on reserve in the pen.