Not many people start the year in the rotation and end the season as the team’s closer but that’s the path that Jenrry Mejia followed in 2014. While he had a solid season as a reliever, many felt this was a self-fulfilling prophecy for the Mets. For many years, the club talked about how Mejia was more suited for the pen and at the first sign of trouble, he was removed from the rotation. It will be curious to see if the Mets yank any of this year’s starting pitchers if they go 3-0 with a 5.07 ERA after seven starts.
Mejia earned a save in his third relief appearance of the season and went on to notch a save in 28 of his 31 chances, including his last 11 opportunities. Normally, this would mean that Mejia was the no-doubt choice to be the team’s closer in 2015. But there are two things putting that in doubt right now. The first is that Bobby Parnell is supposedly ready to return sometime in April and manager Terry Collins has indicated it’s still his job. Perhaps more importantly is that while Mejia got the job done, he also walked quite the tightrope while doing it.
Last year, Mejia had a 1.484 WHIP and as a reliever it was only slightly better at 1.420 coming out of the pen. Last year, 15 pitchers in the NL had at least 20 saves and Mejia’s 1.420 WHIP was the highest. The mean WHIP of these 15 pitchers was the 1.058 mark of Hector Rondon. Even noted tightrope artist Francisco Rodriguez had a 0.985 WHIP last year.
Here’s how we picture Mejia doing in 2015:
| Mejia | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 60 | 2.95 | 58 | 28 | 7 | 4.18 | 1.150 |
| Ferguson | 70 | 3.00 | 75 | 25 | 5 | 3.06 | 1.370 |
| Hangley | 76 | 2.73 | 86 | 32 | 3 | 2.71 | 1.210 |
| Joura | 70 | 3.33 | 75 | 26 | 5 | 3.10 | 1.420 |
| Koehler | 70 | 3.05 | 75 | 40 | 10 | 4.63 | 1.425 |
| McCarthy | 64 | 2.37 | 75 | 28 | 3 | 2.78 | 1.380 |
| Netter | 51 | 2.74 | 62 | 23 | 4 | 3.14 | 1.250 |
| Newman | 70 | 3.40 | 80 | 25 | 6 | 3.10 | 1.150 |
| Rogan | 85 | 3.55 | 93 | 33 | 6 | 3.09 | 1.350 |
| Vasile | 65 | 3.25 | 70 | 30 | 6 | 3.63 | 1.300 |
| Walendin | 72 | 3.22 | 70 | 25 | 6 | 3.38 | 1.380 |
Our projections are all over the map. While we did not forecast saves, it’s easy to extrapolate that quite a few of us, if not most of us, would have had him with fewer saves than a season ago. Still, most of us see him being a valuable member of the pen, regardless of which inning he winds up pitching in most nights.
Here’s our group forecast:
We see him improving his WHIP but still featuring one not normally associated with a top closer. Despite the high WHIP, we still predict him being a solid reliever, one with an impressive K/9 ratio. If Parnell can deliver similar numbers, the Mets will have a strong bullpen, regardless of whose name gets called in the ninth.
Here’s what the other projection systems currently available on FanGraphs project:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 68.1 | 3.05 | 74 | 29 | 6 | 3.45 | 1.350 |
| Steamer | 65 | 3.38 | 65 | 22 | 5 | 3.22 | 1.230 |
| ZiPS | 78.3 | 3.68 | 81 | 30 | 8 | 3.51 | 1.302 |
Interestingly, we project the highest WHIP and the lowest ERA. The key is that we think Mejia will outperform his peripherals, while Steamer and ZiPS both think his ERA will be worse than his FIP. Meanwhile, ZiPS does not forecast Saves and Steamer has him down for 22.
Check back Wednesday for our next entry in the projection series.
I have to lean to the better more optimistic projections with Mejia. Although it is true that his whip didn’t significantly improve when he went to the pen, it is also true that he was dealing with a hernia for about the last two months of the season. There had to be discomfort there, and he still got the job done as said in the article he finished 11 for 11 in those last save opportunities. There has to be some consideration to someone who guts it up for the team and still performs admirably through an injury. There are many players that perform well if they are 100% but through a full seasons work they have big downturns in performance as soon as they have a minor injury. Mejia although it might have not been pretty still decidedly got the job done through thick and thin.
My biggest worry with him is that in adjusting to pitching with the hernia he put more strain on his arm that might lead to future injury. Let’s face it he hasn’t exactly proved to be a workhorse so far in his career.
I worry about injury to Mejia and Familia. They strike me as fragile, and as much as I love Familia’s arsenal, I hate his windup.
I also don’t think Parnell is going to be very effective in 2015 — and I’m a fan of the guy.
And I also have never liked Edgin.
Vic Black, I have no idea.
This pen has the most talent the Mets have had in a long time, but I find it worrisome. There’s not much of a track record of full, successful seasons there. Montero should be important in 2015; I think they are going to need him.
To be clear: I generally approve of the Mets method for building a bullpen — at least conceptually — by bringing up hot young arms from the farm. Opening that pipeline. That is, the Braves Way.
At the same time, I don’t believe in only using the farm, and this is where Sandy continues to put too many eggs in one basket. Moreover, he has shown himself to be content with that approach, even when it clearly will not work.
I’d feel a lot better if the Mets signed Andrew Miller.
I recognize that it’s become a knee-jerk cliche for people to immediately talk about the unreliability of relievers, the historic up-and-down nature of the job, but I think that’s been overstated. Much of that stems from sample size issues. So my take is, go with talent. Also, there’s value in having a veteran reliever or two in the pen. Guys who have slogged through a few seasons, found ways to manage their health in a very challenging role. Experience in the pen is important, I think. Who is the wise old man back there? The stabilizing force?
So I like the general approach . . . supported by importing a couple of veteran arms. These can be acquired via trade, which is also the Braves Way. Sandy has not shown any interest in doing this.
I have no idea if he’s wise but Buddy Carlyle is 37 – so he at least qualifies as old.
“I’d feel a lot better if the Mets signed Andrew Miller.”
What is wrong with baseball these days? While Scherzer’s deal is probably the worst deal in terms of hamstring the payroll, dollar for value, Miller’s deal is worst. You’re talking about a guy with just 1 dominating season getting rewarded with a 4 year deal at nearly 10 million per year? He was decent in 2012 and 2013, but he only pitched 70 innings combined in those 2 years!
If Edgin were eligible for FA next year and if he were to put up a mid 2s ERA with 60 inning pitched, for sure he’d top Zach Duke’s 3/15 and could probably get closer to 3/30. Does any Met fan think he is worth that?
GMs are crazy stupid when it comes to left-handers.
Just as a thought exercise:
If Edgin pitches 60 innings – they finally let him face at least a few RHB. Since he’s has a lifetime .659 OPS against RHB, it’s safe to assume he once again did well against them.
Who wouldn’t want a guy who could throw 93 mph, average a strikeout per inning and get lefties and righties out? I’d much rather have that guy than Zach Duke. And Edgin is three years younger, making him even more valuable.
You could be getting Billy Wagner lite
Well, he’s 28 and has yet to pitch 30 MLB innings in a season. He’s looked good in spurts, but I’m not a believer.
However, I did think he made progress with the secondary pitches last season, so that’s hopeful.
I’m a little worried what TC is going to do to him this year.
Off-Topic: Just a bummer that TC is back and talking again. He’s so random, talking about the lineup and closer and such. Then Sandy has to sit him down and say, those are good thoughts, Terry, but . . .
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If I may exaggerate to make a point –
I don’t blame Josh Edgin for not pitching more than 30 innings in the majors any more than I blame Satchel Paige for waiting until he was in his 40s to make his MLB debut
Jenry Mejia concerns me to some extent. He does have a strong K9 , good SO/W ratio and a good 90.3 save ratio. Everything that you want from a closer. The WHIP is troublesome as I think it will eventually be his downfall. I think he should be the closer until he isn’t (which means it is his job until he severely falters).
Interesting that you used my self fulfilling prophecy observation in the article. This year I think that Montero will be the self fulfilling prophecy in the bullpen since the Mets don’t consider him a rotation piece. Alderson and Collins alluded to this in recent quotes. Montero has a good K9, better SO/W and a similar troublesome WHIP. Rafael’s WHIP has a better chance of correcting because of his control. He needs to gain relief experience, which he should get in 2015 if TC manages him properly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Montero the Met closer sometime in 2016.
The projection: 70 IP, 2.90 ERA, 74 K, 26 W, 5 HR, 3.15 FIP, 1.35 WHIP
The question is, can he maintain the 90% save ratio. I think he will blow more saves but stay around 85%.
As a snide swipe to Sandy, (or cheap shot) LaTroy Hawkins had 23 saves and blew the the same amount of saves as Jenry. $2.5M saved at the expense of six weeks at the start of the season. A costly mistake.