According to ESPN’s Adam Rubin, Jon Niese‘s physical condition has been getting praise after he attended the infamous Mike Barwis fitness camp. That’s a positive sign, though pretty much all players that attend the camp seem to get the same praise. A bigger take away from that piece was the note on the drop in Niese’s fastball velocity.
The drop in velocity was not really a surprise, considering the shoulder issues he faced last year. It’s an issue that Brian Joura also touched on in our Mets360 projection series entry for Niese. The noted drop in velocity in both of these pieces specifically point to his fastball, but it should be noted that there was a drop in velocity for all of his pitches in 2014. The graph below is from Brooks Baseball and shows the release speed for all of Niese’s pitches from year to year since 2008.
It’s certainly an issue moving forward, especially as it’s related to the overall health of his shoulder. Did it really affect his overall performance in 2014, though? Even with the drop in velocity his 2014 fWar (1.6) was similar to what he was worth in 2013 (1.5), albeit in six more games. Beyond the counting stats they were very similar seasons, right down to the problems with the shoulder. As noted in the graph above, however, there was no dip in velocity in 2013.
Another issue we pointed out in our projection entry was a drop in Niese’s ground ball rate. His 2014 GB% was nearly four percent lower than in 2013. This is of particular note because Niese is “the groundball pitcher” in the Mets’ rotation. He’s the one pitcher most often mentioned when discussing the up-the-middle duo of Wilmer Flores and Daniel Murphy that has the potential to be quite an ineffective combination.
Indeed, Niese is in the top 50 starting pitchers since 2008 with a GB% of 49.1%. Is his GB% the key to his success? His GB% from 2011 to 2014 hovered around his career average. In fact, his 2011 and 2013 matched up exactly (51.5%) and his 2012 and 2014 were very similar (48.3% and 47.7%, respectively). His GB% doesn’t seem to determine his overall success.
So what is it that makes Niese most successful? His two best seasons, according to fWar, were 2011 (2.4) and 2012 (2.1). One of the only stats that jumps out from those seasons is his K/9 rate. He struck out roughly one more batter per nine innings in those seasons than he did in 2013 and 2014*. It would seem that the more batters he strikes out, the more success he attains. That’s stating the obvious, but it appears to be one of the key differences between an average and below average season for Niese.
When looking over the last four or five seasons, beyond the strikeout differences, nothing really sticks out save one obvious conclusion: Niese is simply an average pitcher that will, depending on spikes and dips in individual stats and outcomes (notably strikeouts), provide roughly average value. As a matter of fact, he’s one of the most average pitchers in the league.
That’s alright, especially considering the rest of the Mets’ rotation. That also means he has very little room for error, and a permanent drop in velocity would make it tough for him to pick his strikeout rate back up. That, in turn, could reduce him from an average to a below average pitcher. With so much pitching depth in the Mets’ system (and lefty Steven Matz knocking on the door), that’s something he can’t afford.
*He had a K/9 of 7.67 in 2010 as well, but that seemed to be offset by a higher BB/9 and below average FIP.
In his last nine starts of the year, Niese had 48 Ks in 59.1 IP for a healthy 7.29 K/9, slightly above his lifetime average. Either his velocity returned at the end of the year or he found a way to succeed with reduced stuff. He was not the guy who was throwing beach balls to the plate right after the All-Star break.
It doesn’t appear as though his velocity went up at the end of the year, as we can see here: http://tinyurl.com/mgocvgt
Maybe he did learn to succeed with reduced velocity? If so, that will only help him moving forward, especially if he gets his velo back up.
I’ve been wondering why Niese doesn’t have surgery if he really needs it. He won’t lose money since he’s under contract and it will allow him to be at his best. You would think if he knows something is wrong he would look to fix it. But instead, he keeps taking the ball.
You realize it took Harvey 6 weeks to “decide” to have TJ surgery even though it was more than obvious?
Except for Franky frank (http://brokemets.com/2013/07/31/frank-francisco-told-jenrry-mejia-to-stay-in-florida-to-collect-disabled-list-money/),no one wants to sit out and elect surgery unless absolutely necessary These guys are competitors and they love the game.
Name,
I realize that, but when you see that your results are suffering… And what about his career?
Other than K/9, how are his results suffering?
Name, I have always wanted to see a pitcher have less hits than innings and a WHIP below 1.30 to call him an effective pitcher. If Niese continues to not miss bats, what happens when that contact don’t fall into gloves?
While the WHIP has generally been good the past three years, Niese’s numbers means he’s more a nimbler than a guy that can go out there and dominate a game. So, if his stuff can be more dominant by being healthy and therefore set himself up for a better deal than just a nimbler, why doesn’t he do it? Just my opinion.
Hi Gus. I know it’s off topic but I just read where the Rangers have your favorite player Profar out indefinitely.because of the same shoulder issue that has followed him in his young career.
I saw Pete, and was stunned. I would have given up a couple of good prospects for him (Montero and Plawecki). I feel like I must eat crow for that. He is still young and will only be 22, so… But, they don’t know if he will be out all year or just a couple of months. I would love to get him at a bigger discount now, but…
I think you have some misconceptions about surgery… It’s not like PEDs where it’s something magical that makes you all better and stronger. There are risks and complications and it’s a long and arduous process to get back to full health. It’s a last resort option and It’s not something to take lightly.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Niese had a 1.210 WHIP before the All-Star break and a 1.247 WHIP in his last nine games. His first four games back from the DL were brutal but he was fine before and after.
I’m just as worried about his arm slot drop as the Velo drop.
Even if Matz is ready it’s still going to be difficult to trade Niese if his numbers continue to drop. You would be selling low. How many teams would be interested in a lefty with deteriorating numbers and a questionable shoulder? Alderson would have to lower his asking price for any deal to get accomplished. Something he has hard time doing.
Good point Pete, but many things can change over time. Sometimes I applaud Alderson’s patience in transactions, sometimes. But I cannot stand it when it comes to recognize what is going on within his own team.
Jon Niese ranked 35th in ERA last season, 34th in BB/9, 39th in xFIP and 31st in GB%. Despite decreased velocity and rather consistent shoulder ailments, he is still a very effective and durable pitcher. He has lots of value.
Can you put that in perspective Patrick? Is that in the National League only? Out of how many starters? Is there a minimum number of innings pitch for that ranking? Thank you.
Maybe that’s why Alderson wasn’t too keen on trading for him? I’m sure an MRI would of revealed the health issues and negated any deal. I thought I read where he was hoping it would heal with time off rather than have surgery where he would lose another year of playing time. Whatever it is it’s serious enough to require surgery to repair and sad to say if it’s his throwing shoulder a lot of question marks about his future
See our conversation between Name and I. This is another reason to get the guy fixed. We have enough pitching to get this done, and health will maximize his value. I question how many pitchers in their 20’s would put it off like Niese did. However, if he is feeling as good as he says, then excellent; let’s leave it alone.
Professional athletes are never going to tell the public if they have any ailments which may affect their play(David Wright). When it comes to the Mets I don’t trust their medical staff and their ability to properly diagnose any injuries which a Met player may have. Here’s hoping Niese is 100% healthy for Spring Training and pitches lights out this year.
If the grand plan is to have Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Syndergaard and Matz the eventual rotation then Niese has a shelf life of somewhere between the summer 2015 or summer 2016 when Matz will be ready. I would be surprised if Niese ever could pitch out of the bullpen therefore his value as a pitcher for the Mets is low. If the “Incredibles” stay healthy then Sandy should move him sometime around that time frame at the best price he can get. Until then, Niese is a very good #5 pitcher in the rotation, even with decreased velocity.
Surgery can’t solve every injury — particularly pitching shoulders. Remember good old John Maine? I believe that if surgery was an answer, Niese would have already gone under the knife.
Here is the link to a fanshot from MMO that details over the years how Neise’s arm slot has moved. I thought it was a very well done piece.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/12/jon-niese-damaged-goods-or-different-goods.html/