Unless there’s some sneaky underlying scheming occurring, Sandy Alderson just put the Mets in hot water about Daniel Murphy.
Word broke Thursday morning that Murphy has yet to speak with Alderson and co. about extending his contract. The beloved second baseman will pull in $8 million this season as a 30-year-old with six prior seasons wearing orange and blue.
He shouldn’t finish the seventh at Citi Field.
Back in January, I said the Mets needed to trade Murphy as a shift to Wilmer Flores at second and acquiring a solid shortstop. It seemed like the best option for the club in both the short-term and long-term. And as expected, my opinions encountered a bit of resistance from fans.
I was concerned about what arbitration would yield after $5.7 million for a mediocre 2014 campaign that included an All-Star appearance by default. He finished the season with a respectable .289/.332/.403 slash, 9 home runs and 13 stolen bases. In the field, he finished with a .974 fielding percentage at second and a range factor just under league average. Tallying both sets of numbers yields a 2.8 WAR, translating to $15.3 million at the 2014 exchange rate.
So a team in New York City has a second baseman out-producing his contract and a fan-favorite. Logic says it’s no problem locking him up to a big deal.
Unfortunately, we live in Bizarro world where the Mets ownership is dirt-cheap and ballplayers are being paid obscene sums to entertain us. And that’s only the business side of the equation.
Designation as a gritty player is both a blessing and a curse in baseball. It’s bestowed upon players who lack the skillset to be a typical starter but play with such heart and/or smarts they earn the fans’ affection. Murphy has long been able to make consistent contact – to the tune of a .290 career average, and strikes out significantly less than the average hitter. He doesn’t have great power, but does hit a ton of doubles and has solid ISO power for a second baseman. However, that power would be underwhelming compared to his native corner infield positions. And despite being improved, Murphy’s defense at second is average and likely to decline as he ages.
Murphy is likely to earn a substantial raise whether he stays or leaves New York. And unless assurances are made he’ll accept a massive hometown deal, Alderson should make a qualifying offer to ensure some type of return, even if it’s prospects. That, however, is a pricey proposition. The current price of qualifying offers is $15.3 million; that translates to a $16.65 million qualifying offer for the 2016 season.
The ballplayer’s $15.3 million value in 2014 was the highest in his career and tied for the second highest wins above replacement (WAR) in a season. Each WAR was worth $5.46 million that season, a 9.2 percent bump over the $5 million rate in 2013. Accounting for a similar increase, each 2015 win will be worth $5.96 million and each 2016 win will be worth a tick more than $6 million. Assuming Murphy doesn’t defy age and exceed his 3 WAR 2013 season as a 28-year-old, his days of outplaying his salary are coming to an abrupt end.
Meanwhile, New York has younger, cheaper options available. Dilson Herrera, the much-ballyhooed prospect from the Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade, hasn’t lost management’s faith as the long-term solution at the keystone position. He sported a .323/.379/.479 slash in A-Advanced and Double-A last year before batting .220/.303/.407 and 3 home runs during a cameo in Queens. Flores could also move left if Alderson signs or trades for a new shortstop, and minor league infielder Matt Reynolds may be a stop-gap solution.
With reporters picking up that Alderson failed to chat about an extension during arbitration talks, even with Murphy saying he wants to stay, it’s creating an appearance he’s not long for orange and blue. Even if Mets’ management did want to replace Murphy with Herrera after the 2015 All-Star break, they would have retained more leverage against future trade partners if they at least pretended to be interested. There is absolutely interest in Murphy as a solid offensive second baseman with teams willing to ignore the defense. Much like Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota had nothing to gain by participating in the NFL Combine last week, Murphy is unlikely to build up his trade value substantially, and may actually damage it with poor performance or injury.
If Alderson and co. want the best return out of Murphy, the best course of action is to trade him now.
Sorry, don’t see why they need to trade him now.
The qualifying offer is for one year. The Mets can make it and Murphy is unlikely to accept a one-year deal. He can easily get more money over a number of years from another team.
Also, don’t see how “tipping his hand” makes any difference.
If a team wants Murphy after the season (or during the season) they have to make an attractive offer. Sandy obviously doesn’t just take a weak offer simply to get rid of a player (see Dillon Gee).
I really like that about Sandy.
It’s pretty much March. No one is going anywhere…
I see no rush to move Murph I believe there will be a market for his bat at the deadline either in a your need for my need deal if we are in it. If we are not then teams in need of a bat may over pay. Right now most teams have their 2nd base filled and are not going to give best value to trade murph now would be dealing for deal sake. No thank you.
Further I agree with Barry if you keep him I do a QO and see what happens I don’t see murph taking it. This also allows our young guys to play every day at Vegas and get a little seasoning.
I believe Sandy is handling the infield correctly all around.
I agree that the time to trade him is at the deadline, but I think he would take the QO right away and clog up payroll and position. They need him to start the season because his bat will be vital to getting off to a good start and would put too much pressure on Herrara, but it would be tough to give up his bat if they are hunting a WC. His trade value will be at its highest in July and I would love to see SA get creative by moving Murphy AND Colon AND $2M in cash to an American league team to maximize the return. Neither is going to bring back a major league player from a team hunting a playoff spot or a top shelf minor league prospect, which could add to the clogging of a Farm flush with mid tier prospects, so I would like to see what the two of them could bring back, especially if you toss in a few million.
for an AL team to get a professional bat, a reliable and tested big league arm for roughly $4M left and no future commitment might be worth a nice piece. The sum would be greater than the individual parts. I only suggest because none of the vets are going to bring back a top shelf prospect on their own and the upper level Met minor league teams are kind of filled already with meh talent, so no value really in adding to it.
We can call it a salary dump Joe. The Wilpons don’t have to get any high level player(s) in return. Just continue to add to the farm system and apply the savings for a real major league SS. Addition by subtraction. Can add Granderson into the mix as well.
I agree with Mike Koehler..as much as I like Murphy..its a gamble to play him to the All Star break in the hopes of a trade at that time…lets face it, while we hope and pray for Oct baseball its highly unlikely with the strenth of the two other divisions in the NL…chances are the wild cards will come from /hose divisions…I say get what we can for Murph now…why risk a poor first half or injury…my two cents.
I don’t believe in trading a player just because we have a replacement (who’s not ready yet) or because he’lll be a free agent (in a year). He’s been our most reliable player and has more value to us than in trade right now. That may change midseason. For now, unless someone blows us away with an offer, I would not move him. We do need to move a pitcher asap though.
right now no one is trading for a 2B or SP I am never in favor of making a deal just to make one. Everyone knows Gee is available I wait for an injury to move Gee that way if a team needs him we get more and god forbid an injury happens to us we don’t have to rush Thor or Matz to the big leagues.
Likewise I don’t deal murph until I get the best deal if at all (I still lean to the QO) I will not move him just in case he gets injured or has a down year.
Just one mans opinion but given the depth of our system I don’t make a deal just so I can say I got something like a nothing prospect just to clear roster space if it’s not absolutely necessary because 2 guys are out of options and I only have one spot failing that I get good value or I keep the player.
JC what if Murphy accepts the QO? How do you explain that to the Wilpons? The Mets paying at least 15.3 (probably more) for a second baseman which No Other Team in the Major Leagues wanted? Sandy reminds the fan base that this is a business first (budget restraints). Not a very smart way to run a business when you can pay Herrera 15 million less. We as fans tend to overvalue our home grown players.
I have mentioned the QO to murph in other post I know a lot here disagree with me but I have a hard time believing a 30 year old 2nd sacker will be the 1st player to take the offer under this CBA when he is likely to be near the top of the market for his position next year.
As for the rest of the league not wanting him you are assuming they have tried to move him and could not. They said they would listen on murphy I have never believed they were actively shopping,
If I’m wrong and he takes the offer then you trade him but again I don’t believe he will take a 1 year deal. I guess we will have to agree to disagree.
There’s a zero percent chance I extend him a 16M$ QO. Look, just this week Murph said he was astonished to make 8 M$, so double that and it may be easy to sign on for. And then we are stuck shelling out 16M for his services. If Murph was such a hot commodity, and perceived by other teams as this front office does, he would already have been dealt while his price tag was cheap. I can’t see a team offering a draft pick pick to take him. Murph is is the netherworld of the sport, one one hand a reliable average and doubles hitter, which is nice, but on the other hand quite a bit of a liability in the field. The offense is respected, but…..
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/mets-not-expected-to-talk-extension-with-daniel-murphy.html
“If an extension isn’t in the cards, Murphy will be one of the most attractive second base options on the open market, assuming a typically strong season. Entering his age-30 season, he’ll be younger than competitors Howie Kendrick (32) and Ben Zobrist (35), and he has a better track record than comparably aged players such as Asdrubal Cabrera. Over the past four seasons, Murphy has batted .294/.333/.414 and averaged 10 homers and 15 steals per 162 games.”
Would that track record include his defensive prowess? Or his bonehead base running skills? At least Kendrick knows how to field the position.
If the Mets had the money I would agree Matt. Sending Gee and his 5 million+ salary to spot relief is just not a very cost-effective way of running a team that has limited financial resources.
You tell me that a guy being paid $5.7 million had a season valued at $15.3 Million… then you call it a “Mediocre” season.
What????!!!!
Murphy should have been traded early last winter for major league talent to improve a weaker position. I was hoping the Mets would have packaged him with a pitcher that had salary in 2015 (Colon, Niese, or Gee in order to fit the budget) for a corner outfielder or shortstop that is a better hitter than Murphy. This would have been a priority for me but Sandy has gone in a different direction. He signed Cuddyer and chose to stick with Granderson (another player that should have been shopped) The Mets may now allow Murphy to walk away without compensation as a free agent at the end of 2015. This appears opposite to what a financially restricted franchise would do.
It appears to me that Murphy will remain a Met as long as the team has a chance to make the playoffs.
If the mets hope to contend, they need to keep Murph. that’s it, nothing else to consider
It would be insane for Alderson to make a QO to Murphy. Teams already know the dire financial status of the Wilpons. Sandy did try (without success) last season to move him without having someone in the minors ready to replace him. Speaks volumes.So what team is looking for a “second baseman” who can’t field and has zero range? Who will be 31 and wants 10 million+ for being a doubles hitter? Not many. If any. Murphy doesn’t hit enough for power to be a DH. Apply the 8.5 million for a proven MLB SS and move Flores or Herrera to second base. And if Herrera hits light out in ST move Murphy for several minor leaguers and thank him for his effort while he wore the blue and orange. We don’t want another Reyes situation happening again.
Another Reyes situation? Big difference in talent there, and Reyes got us Kevin Plawecki… Not bad
While reading everyone’s point of view, a few things came to mind:
1. Signing Cuddyer and losing a prospect speaks volumes for the pressure Alderson is feeling to win. It isn’t something he would have done in the past. Therefore, how do you make that “win now” move but then move Murphy? This team needs Murphy’s bat if they want to make the playoffs.
2. If Murphy is a 3 WAR player, he definitely has some value. Maybe not a lot, but some. We had heard how both the A’s and Giants were interested at some point. Maybe not enough to let go of Murphy, but he would work on the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, and San Diego. Not a lot of interest, but “some”. He should fetch a couple of decent “A” ball prospects. That’s better than the QO pick compensation, right? Assuming they give him a QO, and he rejects it, and someone signs him because ask Stephen Drew how it worked out for him.
3. Daniel Murphy is the kind of player every team would like, but while his range may be limited so he plays in short right field, so do other second basemen. In the last two years, Murphy’s defensive WAR has been better than Aaron Hill, Jason Kipnis, and even Jose Altuve. Granted, he isn’t sparkling, but he can turn a DP and won’t embarass himself with the glove.
While many teams don’t want to give up the deal Alderson may want (Alderson probably has few GM friends out there the way he looks to screw the other guy) but it isn’t that Murphy doesn’t have value.
I’m thinking in bulleted points these days:
* It’s nearly March, so this post is about 5 months too late. That ship has sailed. You might have argued back then about the need to shift Flores to 2B and acquire a real SS solution. But that moment has passed.
* Herrera is not ready.
* Murphy is an asset to the 2015 Mets, a consistent bat and a hard-nosed guy. I wish he could field.
* Enough, enough, enough with the idea of sacrificing the present for “future considerations.” If Murphy can help the Mets make the playoffs this season, then — by all means — let him help the Mets make the playoffs!
* To expand on that, if Murphy is playing well, and if the Mets are playing well, I don’t ship the guy out mid-season. The die has already been cast.
* No way do I give him a qualifying offer.
* Word has always been that he was not a highly coveted guy on the trade market. I don’t believe that SA declined any big offers for Murphy. Flipping Murphy always demanded a corresponding move at SS, and we all know that SA is incapable of that many transactions. Remember: Semi-retired GM!
If Herrera plays like he did last year, Murphy will be gone during the season. Same goes for Matt Reynolds. Right now though, Murphy is best suited here, where his bat is an invaluable part of this offense. An extension though isn’t happening and a QO will only happen if they got no production out of Flores, Reynolds and Herrera. The odds of that happening are pretty slim.