Sometimes it seems like fate doesn’t want some people to succeed. Nick Johnson could have been great but each year some random injury would come up and sideline him. Rick Ankiel looked like he was going to be an All-Star pitcher for a decade or more and then his ability to throw strikes just left him. Now it’s fair to wonder if Bobby Parnell will fit in that same category.
Parnell had no trouble staying healthy when he was a max effort guy, looking to throw each pitch 100 mph. But once he learned to sacrifice some velocity for greater control and looked to be on the verge of becoming a dominant reliever, fate – or injuries – reared its ugly head. Parnell missed the end of the 2013 with a neck injury and then missed virtually all of 2014 with a partial tear of the MCL in his right elbow which required TJ surgery.
At times, manager Terry Collins has indicated that Parnell will resume being the team’s closer once he returns. But it’s not going to be so easy to remove Jenrry Mejia from the role if he continues to convert the vast majority of his save opportunities, like he did in 2014. Of course, this presupposes that Parnell does not suffer any setback – or a new random injury- and returns being the highly-effective reliever he was from the end of 2012 through 2013. In that span, covering 75.2 IP, Parnell had a 1.90 ERA and a 1.031 WHIP.
So, what should we expect from Parnell in 2015? Here are our individual predictions:
| Parnell | IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 45 | 3.10 | 50 | 20 | 4 | 3.47 | 18 |
| Ferguson | 50 | 3.20 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 3.60 | 9 |
| Hangley | 57 | 3.27 | 52 | 18 | 7 | 3.92 | 24 |
| Joura | 55 | 2.95 | 48 | 17 | 2 | 2.85 | 23 |
| Koehler | 52 | 2.75 | 48 | 15 | 2 | 2.72 | 27 |
| McCarthy | 44 | 3.19 | 48 | 19 | 4 | 3.50 | 17 |
| Netter | 55 | 3.30 | 49 | 23 | 6 | 4.09 | 16 |
| Parker | 50 | 3.50 | 60 | 20 | 4 | 3.04 | 12 |
| Rogan | 62 | 3.15 | 59 | 17 | 3 | 2.75 | 12 |
| Vasile | 55 | 3.45 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 4.36 | 12 |
| Walendin | 45 | 2.85 | 40 | 14 | 3 | 3.22 | 3 |
None of us see him matching his excellent pitching right before the injuries hit, yet we all see him being a league-average or better reliever and nine of us expect him to reach double digits in Saves. Mike Koehler sees him with the best ERA (2.75) and the most Saves (27) but two other writers also see him beating a 3.00 ERA and topping 20 Saves. Chris Walendin is one who sees a good ERA but he also forecasts the fewest Saves (3). At 3.50, Doug Parker envisions the highest ERA but he still sees Parnell grabbing a dozen Saves.
Here’s our group forecast for Parnell:
While not dominating, we see adding Parnell to the mix as a good thing. A relief pitcher with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP is above average. Joining Mejia, Jeurys Familia and Vic Black at the end of games should give the Mets a strong pen, if those four pitch like they did a season ago.
Here’s how our forecast stacks up against the ones currently available on FanGraphs:
| IP | ERA | K | BB | HR | FIP | Saves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 45 | 3.10 | 50 | 20 | 4 | 3.47 | 18 |
| Steamer | 65 | 3.37 | 60 | 21 | 5 | 3.32 | 10 |
| ZiPS | 44.2 | 3.43 | 37 | 13 | 3 | 3.20 |
ZiPS does not forecast Saves. Steamer forecasts significantly more innings while our forecast is almost identical to ZiPS in this regard. We see him having the worst peripherals yet the best ERA of the trio. We also have him with the top Saves mark, as we are aware of the manager’s declarations, while Steamer does not have the benefit of that information.
Check back Wednesday for our next entry in the projection series.
Brian-
Just wanted to say that I have read alto of your analysis and even comments at other places and wanted to give you credit for your contributions this off season. They have been well reasoned and researched, but more importantly it has been a refreshing departure from the typical blog nonsense which relies on repeating stupid and meaningless rumors that have nothing to do with baseball or the Mets. Thanks to you and the others who contribute to these posts. I have learned a lot about this team and its players.
Joe – thanks for the kind words!
During the season, we do a nightly Game Chatter, where we have a thread dedicated to each game as it happens. I hope you’ll join us watching the games this year. I think you’ll enjoy it!
B, you getting chatters posted for ST games?
Probably will be a little hit and miss for ST games but we’ll definitely do some.
I would like to echo Joe F’s thoughts, and would like to add that Parnell’s success started once Isringhausen came back and showed Bobby the knuckle curve. Parnell didn’t have a successful enough second pitch, so now he had the good heater and a second plus offering.
I don’t believe Parnell will bounce back in 2015 to his pre injury self because is only one year removed from TJ surgery and compound that with missing the second half of 2013 with the neck injury. My gut feeling is that at age 30 he will never achieve the excellence of the first half of the 2013 again in his career. I am not saying he won’t be an effective relief pitcher, just not a top ten closer again. Parnell is similar to Murphy in the fact that he is in his walk year and I don’t think the Mets should pay him more than the 3.7M a year in the future. If the Mets remain in the playoff picture then Parnell will stay until the end but if they should fall out of contention then I expect Bobby to be traded before the end of the season.
50 IP, 3.64 ERA, 47 K, 18 BB, 3 HR, 3.32 FIP, 5 Saves