In one form or another, we’ve heard about how the Mets have survived with two of their best hitters on the DL and veterans like Michael Cuddyer, Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy underperforming. David Wright’s last game was on April 14 and Travis d’Arnaud’s was on April 19. The team had an off day on April 20, so let’s look at everyone’s stats since April 21.
First, let’s point out that the Mets were 10-3 on April 20 and have been 10-8 since. It seems more accurate to say that the Mets have played well since two of their top hitters were sidelined, not that they’ve just “survived.”
Next, let’s set up some guidelines. We’ll use preseason ZiPS forecasts, since we did not have a Mets360 projection for either Kevin Plawecki or Dilson Herrera. We’ll compare how the players have done in the 18 games (58% of the season played so far) since d’Arnaud hit the DL compared to their ZiPS forecast. Here’s how we’ll rate things:
+/- 10 OPS points – exactly as expected
+/- 11-24 OPS points – player is over/under performing expectations
+/- 25-49 OPS points – player is exceeding/failing expectations
+/- 50 OPS points – player is really outperforming/underperforming expectations.
The titles of the categories are mostly irrelevant, so feel free to sub in whatever phrases you like. The key point is that if someone is performing within a few points of their ZiPS expectation, we cannot accurately call that person underperforming. Also important is that someone underperforming by 30 points is a lot different than someone underperforming by 200 points.
| Player | ZiPS | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Duda | .833 | .660 | (.173) |
| Herrera | .680 | .755 | .075 |
| Wilmer Flores | .728 | .656 | (.072) |
| Murphy | .727 | .717 | (.010) |
| Cuddyer | .775 | .558 | (.217) |
| Juan Lagares | .675 | .686 | .011 |
| Granderson | .743 | .877 | .134 |
| Plawecki | .674 | .643 | (.031) |
Of course, 18 games is not a huge sample and if we were to run this table three days from now the results might look totally different. But as we stand here today, anyone who says Granderson has been a problem is totally off base. Additionally, anyone who claims that Murphy has been a drag on the offense is mistaken, too. He’s performing just about exactly as we should expect.
The three big problems have been Cuddyer, Duda and Flores. Last week, we talked about how Cuddyer got off to a bad start the first five games of the season. He did even worse the first five games after d’Arnaud was sidelined, going 1-19. However, the Mets went 4-1 in that stretch. Since April 26, Cuddyer has a .710 OPS, which is underperforming by 65 points. That’s still a big amount and he has to be considered a problem.
Duda obviously cooled off after the great start and pitchers had even less of a reason to pitch to him than they did before. He had a two-hit game on Sunday, so hopefully he’s breaking out of his slump. But no matter how you look at it, Duda has to be counted as one of the reasons for the team’s offensive struggles since 4/21.
Much like with Cuddyer, the ZiPS forecast for Flores might have been optimistic. Be that as it may, Flores has been a problem during this span, even though it includes five of the eight games during his one productive stretch of the year. In his last 10 games, he has a .465 OPS, even with Sunday’s two-hit game.
Plawecki’s expectations weren’t particularly high and he hasn’t met them. It makes no sense to me how people fret about what to do when d’Arnuad is ready to come back. At that point, hopefully after a brief minor league rehab, d’Arnuad is reinstalled as the starter and Plawecki is returned to the minors. It’s not a hard decision in the slightest. Plawecki needs to play every day and it would be a mistake to have d’Arnaud play another position to get Plawecki’s – at this point in time – mediocre bat into the lineup.
To me, a much bigger decision is what to do with Herrera when Wright returns. As one reader named him, Herrera is “mini-Morgan” and he’s the type of player you find a spot for when he’s ready. If two weeks from now when Wright’s ready to return if Herrera is still sporting a .755 OPS, he needs to stay and play on a regular basis, however that may be. If only he had seen time at shortstop last year like someone asked, we might be able to solve two problems in one swoop. It still might make sense when fly ball pitcher Bartolo Colon is pitching.
Regardless, we’ve learned that the 2015 Mets are resilient. They’ve rebounded from missing two of their best offensive players to post a record two games over .500, despite a stretch in which they were 3-7. They’ve won four of their last five games and head into their four-game set with the Cubs with some offensive momentum, having banged out 23 hits and 10 runs in their past two games. If the offense can just give the pitching four runs per game, the team would be in great shape.
I am a firm believer of riding the hot hand. Granderson, in my book is my #3 hitter but I accept TC still batting him 1st because it is working. Murph to 3rd would be the prudent move and dropping Duda to 5th. I like a lefty/righty balance because I believe most mlb managers play the matchups game so let them burn out their bullpens like TC does. Cuddyer is on a honeymoon with the Mets but he really needs to sit some. He bats 4th, his replacements are not producing, so this is the team’s current achilles heal without an obvious solution. Herrera, if he continues to hit, should move to SS when Wright returns as he can’t be any worse defensively than Flores. Plawecki is here for the experience at this point.
i like the three catchers as Monnell or Recker can pinch hit now.
I like Monell on the club and think he should volunteer to shag balls in the outfield.
Just wanted to point out that Dilson has only played 7 games this year (and probably shouldn’t be discussed in this article) , and that two bad games would drop his OPS under .600
Mets are not hitting well and with Collins stupid lineups, they produce even less.
Lagares, Cuddyer, Murphy, Duda, Flores, Granderson, Plawecki, Herrera. Lets try to separate the 2 underperforming superstars of Cuddyer and Granderson and give someone else a try.
As Brian pointed out – Granderson is playing pretty well. Way better than last season.
Why is Cuddyer hitting second? He’s a power bat and I’m pretty sure we have better bat handlers to slide into that slot. I’d rather have flip him with Murphy, although maybe move Herrera up higher and Cuddyer into the middle of the pack.
Should the Mets consider playing Herrera in the outfield and has he played there before?
Consider it? Sure.
But given the financial outlay to Cuddyer, I can’t see the Mets playing The Dilson there more than once or twice a month. They’re going to play Cuddyer as long as he’s healthy.
Edit: He’s only played 2B, 3B and SS in the minors.
Hes like 4 feet tall. He does not belong in the OF.
Unlike you, I don’t engage in heightism.
He’s the same listed height as Rickey Henderson, Andrew McCutchen and Mookie Wilson and they didn’t have much problem playing in the outfield. I have no idea if he could do it. But I wouldn’t reject it out of hand, even if he is adding a couple of inches to his actual height. Being tall didn’t help Lucas Duda be a good outfielder.
Ha! That’s a good one. I anticipated that you would counter with the diminutive, yet powerful, Colin Cowgill! I don’t believe the Dilson will steal bases like Rickey, nor will he hit and defend like Cutch, and comparing him with Mookie? And he doesn’t look quite as tall as any of them.
Actually being tall was about the only plus side Duda had at all in the outfield.
I’m imagining The Dilson reaching like Endy but coming up 2 feet short of the Orange line!
The Mets have gone 10-8 since 4/21 but it’s not because of the offense. It might be more accurate to say the pitching has played well. In that span they have an ERA of 2.75 and a K/BB ration of 3.56, though they lost a couple of stinkers.
The offense over that span has slashed .231/.289/.349.with an OPS of .638. Even with a few 6, 7, and 8 run games sprinkled in there, they still averaged under that 4 runs per game. I feel like that’s surviving. If the pitching hadn’t been so generally good, things could have been much different.
In terms of individual players, I’m not sure we can compare 18 game samples to full season projections. Even if you go with that (which I do like for this exercise) if we plugged a theoretically healthy Wright in that table and he was performing at the ZIPS forecast of .769, I think we would all say that it was disappointing for him.
And beyond that, I feel like we all knew going into the season that the pitching was great, but we needed more from the offense than was “expected” for this team to truly shine. Well, they aren’t getting that at this point, even during those 18 games.
The offense needs to be better than expected/projected, if even only a little bit, if this team has any post-season aspirations. Your pitching won’t do you a lot of good in the playoffs if you’re capable of losing back-to-back 1-0 games.
I was/am still not a fan of Herrera playing shortstop, but if he’s hitting well and Flores isn’t when Wright comes back, how can they send him down? I’d keep him up and start him once or twice a week at short, and at least twice at 2B. Murphy can spell 3B for Wright on those days so the Captain can hopefully avoid another DL stint.
I’d be more in favor of Murph to the OF… his defensive deficiencies are overstated in LF (not like he doesn’t make odd plays at 2nd base!!!)…. he was “pointed toward LF” in his only exposure there— given some time, he’d be a much more serviceable LF versus 2b.
That would leave Herrera at 2b… a big D upgrade.
Murph could “spell” LF, 2b, 3B (and even 1b)…. in addition to pinch hitting and double switching, that’s a 400-450 bat Platoon advantage/professional bat on a Rest Day.
That’s a nice addition.
I don’t think playing guys out of position is the answer in any of these cases.
Best comment of the day!
Well, this is a case of theory versus reality.
In theory, you never play a guy out of position. In reality, it happens all of the time. The Cubs are playing a SS at 2B right now and last year they played a SS in CF. Sure, it’s nicer when your excess includes guys who are good defenders. But that’s not the reality we face currently. It also would have been nicer if our GM would have done something about this very predictable situation. Rotten reality strikes again.