Right now, Met fans are angry, getting angrier by the day. They see a team so close to contention, with marvelous pitching, just one game out of a playoff spot. They see a team that has to struggle for every run, for every chance at scoring a run. They know – as much as they can know, not being privy to conversations in board room, only getting bits and pieces from reporters with limited access – that nothing is being done to improve the team’s standing. Many are laying the blame at the feet of General Manager Sandy Alderson. As we all know, Alderson cut his teeth with the Oakland A’s of the late-‘80s and if he isn’t the father of a “Moneyball” approach to building a team, he’s at least its Dutch uncle. Fans hear him saying that he is ready to make a move to help the offense, even ready to “overpay,” whatever that means. They then see that nothing changes, save for some shuffling about within the system. To a point, the anger might be justified – where have you gone, Jose Reyes? — but let’s take a look realistically and unemotionally.
When Sandy Alderson came aboard in the 2011 offseason, that farm system was a shambles. Predecessor Omar Minaya had all but stripped it bare due to some ill-advised trades and free agent signings, which had denuded the player-development team of valuable draft picks. Slowly – painfully slowly – he set about rebuilding the minor leagues, hoarding draft picks like a miser and refusing to part with whatever little minor league talent remained. At the same time, he was able to shed the bloated contracts of the previous regime. Some he swiftly excised – think Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo. Some he let play out naturally, like Jason Bay and Johan Santana. Some he was able to get some terrific talent for, in trading off Carlos Beltran and R.A. Dickey. He was even able to get a couple of warm bodies for Francisco Rodriguez. All the while, he continued to squirrel away draft picks and nurture the talent on hand, to the point that the Mets system has climbed into the top 10 lists among chroniclers who rank such things. And the Mets are just one game out of a playoff spot.
Alderson’s polar opposite is working on the opposite coast, for a team for which Alderson once worked. A. J. Preller took over the reins of the San Diego Padres in August, 2014. He is young, just 38 years old, but he came to San Diego with a reputation as a strong player-development man. He had built up the Texas Rangers’ farm system under the auspices of Cornell University classmate GM John Daniels, rising to the title of Director of Player Development and eventually, Assistant General Manager. With this background in mind, the Padres immediately gave him a five-year contract, the keys to the car. What he has done since has been surprising, to say the least. In this past offseason, he dealt away much of his minor league resources and signed pitcher James Shields to an over-the-top contract, nullifying any chance to replenish the farm through the draft. In taking on the likes of the shell of Matt Kemp, a suddenly-mortal Craig Kimbrel, an always-injured Wil Myers and the Upton Brothers, he’s hooked up the team’s cash to a fire hose, while taking a scorched-Earth approach to the minor league system. At the time, these moves were lauded high and low as a bold approach: if Preller could spend the Padres into contention, it would all be worth it. As it turns out, he could not. San Diego is fourth in the NL West, a bare game above the craven Colorado Rockies. Have I mentioned the Mets are just one game out of a playoff spot?
Which approach would you rather take?
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None of the above. No GM is flawless. Not every trade or signing is going to turn out well. However, it sometimes feels like Sandy is too cautious with trades – afraid to make a mistake. You don’t have to be trader Jack McKeon to be successful, but eventually you’ve got to pull the damn trigger.
Great point Charlie. I wonder how much of Alderson’s hesitation is his choice. If the owners are not giving much money to work with, what moves are there to be made? I think Alderson will make a move at the deadline, and it may or may not work out, but I would rather have him over AJ Preller.
Thanks for identifying two bad GMs.
Do you realize that 5 teams changed GMs this offseason? And that 3 of the 4 were also as active as the Padres, but were much smarter? In fact, most of the dealings was among the new GMs, which is probably not be a coincidence.
The Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman (and Farhan Zaidi). Over the offseason, they traded away Kemp, Gordon, signed Anderson, Beachy, and got back Rollins, Kendrick.
The Rays hired Matt Silverman. They traded away Hellickson, Joyce, Zobrist, Escobar, were involved in the 3way trade with Myers/Souza,
Dave Stewart became the new GM for the Diamonbacks. They dealt away Didi, Miley, Montero and got Hellickson and signed the big fish Tomas.
John Hart became the new GM for the Braves, and we all know what he did, so i won’t go into the details.
I’d take any of them over Alderson and Preller.
Right now I’d take Alderson over Stewart and Hart. Reality is starting to hit for the Braves. Kudos to Hart for getting rid of a bunch of salary but they still have several years of suck ahead of them.
I don’t think either the Dodgers are Rays really distinguished themselves with the moves you listed above. I’m not blaming the Dodgers for trading Gordon but we can’t deny he’s producing, or was before he got hurt.
My point in listing the moves was merely to show that they were on par with the activity as the Padres.
“I’m not blaming the Dodgers for trading Gordon but we can’t deny he’s producing, or was before he got hurt.”
Cherry-picking the dates, Gordon has a .630 OPS since May 16th. In comparison, Lagares has a .624 OPS over that time frame.
His OPS is down to 772 after flirting with 1000 earlier in the season. It’s very likely that his OPS will be under 700 or just by the end of the year, just like he did last year.
I don’t know if the you can fairly say the Met farm system was in shambles in 2011. Minaya had a different directive and winning those years was still a priority over replenishing the farm.. How many players on today’s roster are Minaya signings? Aldersons job was to cut 50 million from the payroll. By coincidence that was the figure given by FW as to how much the Mets were losing. And so it goes. 2016 looks brighter already knowing Wheeler and Wrgiht will be healthy. We don’t need any trades. Just getting back the players on the DL would supplement this team. I give Alderson an “A” for reducing the payroll and an “F” for everything else.
Actually, you cant say that the farm was in shambles at all. Any success this team has has come from Minaya’s time.
Good assessment Pete. You are dead on. Save the team as a business, to hell with the product.
“2016 looks brighter already knowing Wheeler and Wrgiht will be healthy. We don’t need any trades.”
Wow— kiss 2016 good bye!!!!
Yes I was being very sarcastic. But I still have hope (about 1%) that with Colon, Murphy,Gee, Parnell, Niese and Cuddyer being traded or allowed to walk that Alderson will finally be able to sign 1 high caliber FA with a decent offensive track record. By the way, do you think TDA will be able to play a full season in 2016? Next years version will at least have less players on the DL. I hope.
I don’t understand this comparison. Preller just got to San Diego, Alderson has had five years. Plus, Alderson inherited a tremendous amount of talent, Preller inherited a barren farm system as very few of the players drafted and signed by Alderson and dePodesta in San Diego amounted to anything.
It’s not much of a comparison. For a detailed treatment/evisceration of Preller’s work in San Diego, check out Rany Jazayerli’s article at the Grantland site.
Not to pick on you, Mike, but there’s one thing I am very tired of seeing overlooked: while it is true that Omar left some players with potential in the Mets system, it is equally true that Alderson’s team has developed that talent. And this is not the inevitable next step, as any Mets fan should realize; nor is it always the player who is solely at fault when his potential isn’t realized. Alderson and company typically receives zero credit for accomplishing the hardest part of the development process, and it’s not fair.
As a fan who spent years waiting for, oh, Paul Wilson and Alex Escobar and Fernando Martinez to shine, while trying to get excited over Grant Roberts and Jae Seo, I should think this would be obvious. Apparently not.
In fairness, DED, I know for a fact that Alderson has been credited for the “development” aspect of his 5-year-reign. I’ve commented to that effect, and I know that Mike has too, as well as others.
When it comes to draft & development, I find it’s a chicken & egg situation. Ultimately, you’d like for both aspects to be fully functional. If you draft a kid because, in part, he’s coachable, is that a draft victory or a development victory. Nobody will ever know that full answer, so it’s not really worth asking.
Your point is a good one, they system does seem to be functioning well, though your complaints seem a little overstated here, in the context of 360.
Well, Preller made a bunch of high-profile moves while Alderson stood pat.
To me the interesting thing is these two GMs might cross paths in the next few weeks. Wouldn’t it be something if the Padres traded Justin Upton to the Mets? We’d give them a better prospect or two if they take Cuddyer, too.
“None of the above” I agree Matt.
“Thanks for identifying two bad GMs.” I agree Name
The Mets ended 2010 with a 79-83 record and four years later fought back to the same 79-83 record. If the GM could identifiy major league level talent then maybe the loyal fans would not have suffered for four years and the process would have been quicker. Frank Fransisco, Ramon Ramirez, Jon Rauch, Alex Torres (OF), Shuan Marcum,Chris Young(OF), Eric Young, Alex Torres (p), John Mayberry, Curtis Granderson and Michael Cuddyer have all performed below their career averages. Sandy’s batting average is like the current team’s batting average, near the bottom of the pack. Based on his current track record, the Mets need another GM to take them to the next level.
On Preller — who is a distant, long-lost cuz, we have grandfathers who were brothers out of Greenpoint — turns out his father actually met my father at an insurance convention long ago — the big mistake seems to have been Kemp.
I think he was very keen on making the team relevant.
Also, such a different situation in terms of ownership support. In many ways, I think Sandy has been saved from making big, obvious mistakes by having ownership that won’t spend.
With Alderson, I have this image in my mind of a hungry family at the table, asking for food. In response, he stands up, goes out to the garden, and plants a seed.
One thing is for sure. During all these lean years, Alderson himself has done very, very well. Making millions, hiring his pals, not suffering.
He did a horrendous job in San Diego, which is the irony to the entire debate.
I would say that taking on BJ Upton’s contract in order to acquire a closer he didn’t really need was his worst move. Giving up Yasmani Grandal in the Kemp deal, that was pretty awful too.
His flurry of activity reminded me a bit of Loria’s buying spree a few years ago, and even more of Trader Frank Lane. That Preller, a development guy with Texas, went totally for established talent, really smacked of the 1950’s and Cleveland.
JP – very interesting penultimate graph. I may borrow that one and expand on it.
When Alderson says he is willing to overpay for a bat I wonder whether his definition is anything like our definition of that – or even what other GMs think.
It’s been said that Alderson makes few swaps because he is always angling to win the transaction. So maybe when he says he’ll overpay he means he will pay a true fair price. But bats are at a premium these days. Even mediocre ones figure to cost B or B+ prospects.
When you see the list of people that the Mets might be looking at, namely someone like Aramis Ramirez, you have to wonder what is a fair deal and do we really want this guy at all?
As to free agency everyone still seems to be living in the 90s. Good players are getting looked up early now so that they are not hitting free agency to the downside of their career. So a significant free agent is typically approaching (or past) 30 in the post steroid era looking for a 5 to 7 year deal. So really when you sign one, you are acknowledging that you will be eating the last 2 or 3 years. It’s worth a chance with an elite FA but tough to swallow for a slightly above average guy. It is worth a shot when you are knocking at the door but realistically is one bat going to make the difference? Unless Duda hits like a middle of the lineup guy one bat won’t matter. Sure it will help but won’t change the results. And I am beginning to think that the .245, 18 HR Duda is the real one, not the guy who was there for the first two months.
So the question becomes who are you giving up for an upgrade.
I would rent Upton if the price were one real prospect (plus some bodies). I would be willing to move two MLB ready prospects for Gomez and a little more for Braun. But let’s face it , there isn’t a whole lot out there. Really want to give Ynoa for Byrd? Fulmer for Zobrist ? Conforto or Nimo for Upton? Plawecki for Segura ?
What probably makes the most sense is to look to get several average guys in salary dump for low level kids and replace the bench. Any breathing Major Leaguer is a significant improvement over Muno, Mayberry, Kirk and Campbell. Last night in the 9th they had Kirk and Tejada with Monell, Muno, Campbell and Mayberry on the bench. Of those six there is only one marginal major leaguer in the group. That can be fixed without giving up the farm.
Very rational John.