Noah Syndergaard may be predictably unpredictable

Rookie Noah Syndergaard has had a good if unspectacular debut for the Mets this season. He’s got an ERA of 3.39, a FIP of 3.34, a K/9 of 9.64, and his B/9 is an even two. The results have been somewhat uneven, though, and he’s had a few clunkers. What’s really interesting is how his numbers look when broken down by each month. Specifically, he seems to alternate good and bad months.

• May: 1.82 ERA, .221/.270/.323
• June: 5.14 ERA, .290/.328/.429
• July: 1.32 ERA, .158/.225/.254
• August: 4.79 ERA .262/.309/.507

That’s kind of weird, but could certainly be chalked up to being one of those baseball anomalies. Was there something significantly different that he was doing in the “bad” months that influenced it, though? One thing that peeks out from behind the numbers is pitch usage. In June and August Syndergaard used his change and slider more often than in May and July (he wasn’t throwing his new slider in May).

He’s had mixed success with those pitches over the course of the season, so it’s not exactly those pitch types specifically that are interesting in and of themselves. What’s kind of odd is that, despite the talk about him needing to rely less on hard stuff, he’s done worse while trying to mix it up a bit more. That’s not to say that his attempt to be less predictable is a bad thing. It’s great to see him making the effort to refine his approach to the game.

However, he only seems to be mixing it up when opponents are teeing off on his fastball. In June they were hitting it at a .273 rate and in August it was .291. Does he turn to his other pitches more only when opponents are zoned in on his fastball? If it’s a purposeful decision to turn to his breaking and off-speed stuff only when his main weapon isn’t working for him then he may actually be causing himself to be more predictable. If that’s the case, then it would mean he’s mixing it up as a reaction (perhaps panicky) rather than a calculated effort to elevate his approach to hitters.

The sample size is a too small to call it a trend, but it’s an intriguing data point. He’s starting to use the slider more, and in August he had great success with it despite his overall results for the month. He’ll need to continue to work in his off-speed and breaking stuff a little more on a consistent basis rather than only when his fastball isn’t effective (if that’s indeed a conscious decision).

If hitters are able to keep up with his fastball, why would they offer at anything else he throws? If he continues to learn how to keep the hitters guessing he’ll have much more room for error when his fastballs are being clobbered. All reporting suggests that he’s s sponge and willing to absorb the advice he receives (his adoption of the slider being a prime example), so it certainly appears that he’s headed down that road. His raw stuff is dominant and once he hones his craft a bit more he may just be one of the filthiest pitchers in the league.