Noah Syndergaard gave up a homer in the first inning that put the Mets in an early hole and another in the sixth inning, which sealed a loss Saturday. In his last seven games, Syndergaard has a 5.09 ERA and has allowed 9 HR in 40.2 IP. Despite this recent struggle with the long ball, the big rookie should still be in the playoff rotation.
It seems a given that Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey will be in the playoff rotation. After that there are four guys vying for two spots. Let’s run some numbers on those four guys. First for some traditional numbers:
| IP | ERA | WHIP | K/BB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | 182.1 | 4.15 | 1.245 | 5.7 |
| Steven Matz | 30.0 | 1.80 | 1.133 | 2.6 |
| Jon Niese | 167.0 | 4.31 | 1.407 | 2.1 |
| Syndergaard | 135.1 | 3.39 | 1.101 | 4.8 |
From these it seems pretty easy to eliminate Niese. He has the worst ERA, WHIP and K/BB ratio of the quartet and it’s not like he started off poorly and is pitching lights out down the stretch. After that, it’s not so cut-and-dry. Colon may have fattened up against the dregs of the NL East and been in Niese territory against the rest of MLB but can you see Terry Collins bumping him for two rookies? Let’s dig a little deeper and see if there’s a case to be made for Colon and if not, which of the rookies will get the short end of the stick.
| BABIP | K/9 | BB/9 | LOB% | HR/FB | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colon | .309 | 6.47 | 1.14 | 72.4 | 10.8 | 3.86 | 3.95 |
| Matz | .247 | 7.80 | 3.00 | 98.6 | 13.3 | 4.25 | 3.98 |
| Syndergaard | .287 | 9.64 | 2.00 | 73.9 | 13.8 | 3.34 | 3.05 |
It’s easy to see how Matz has that sparkling ERA. He’s having great fortune in both batters getting on base via a hit and with runners getting on base but not scoring. His peripherals paint a picture of a pitcher no better than Colon.
Meanwhile, Syndergaard has the best peripherals of all, even with the rough patch he’s experienced lately. His ERA and his FIP are nearly identical and his xFIP is even better, thanks to the now higher-than-normal HR rate. He’s the pitcher most likely to be able to give you a strikeout when you need one and he’s not likely to get burnt with allowing a walk.
But before we declare the final two starters as Colon and Syndergaard, we should also keep in mind that Collins has said that Matz in the bullpen is not an option. The manager has seemingly put the kibosh on Harvey and Matz pitching out of the pen, not wanting to subject either of his pitchers coming off surgery to the up-and-down nature of relieving.
Two things come to mind here. One is that it’s far better to judge Collins by what he does, not what he says. Whether it’s because he changes his mind or gets overruled by his GM, we shouldn’t consider this “no Matz in the pen” as written in stone.
And the other is that we have no idea how Harvey will perform in the playoffs. Will the gloves be off in the postseason and Harvey be allowed to function like a normal pitcher? Or will the Mets employ the piggyback approach in the playoffs? Collins may not want Matz getting up and down but how would he feel about anointing him as the guy to replace Harvey after he reaches his sub-90 pitch count?
This way, Matz knows which day he’s going to pitch and it should be fairly easy to see how Harvey’s doing and to get him ready in time to come into the game when Harvey reaches the club-imposed limit. We can argue that same thing for using Colon as a reliever, too.
Part of me wants to see Syndergaard as a reliever, just wondering how high he could reach on the radar gun if he didn’t have to pace himself to throw 100+ pitches. But hopefully the back end of the pen has been stabilized with the acquisitions of Tyler Clippard and Addison Reed to go along with the season-long dominance of Jeurys Familia.
If the concern is innings one through six, then Syndergaard should be starting. With Colon likely to be gifted a starting spot, Syndergaard has performed well enough over a long enough sample of MLB hitters to deserve the rotation bid over both Matz and Niese. But if he wants to solidify his spot the final two weeks of the season by eliminating the gopher ball, that would be okay, too.
Copied from the post game thread — my thoughts on Noah (and other pitchers).
I’m exhausted by the approach our pitchers have with 2 strikes. The number of 0-2 and 1-2 hits we give up shocks me. Where on earth is the coaching and game calling and just pitching smarts to not give a batter something to hit when they have to protect the plate (exception to Dee Gordon, who gets hits well outside the K zone). Instead of expanding the zone, our approach is to challenge with fastballs. Ok, do it at the letters, not middle middle, or on the ground…bounce the goddam ball in and make them chase. And Plawecki needs to be elevating in his set up, or slamming his mitt on the ground demanding it be bounced in. Anything other than trying to challenge hitters by just blowing them away with fastball in the zone. Literally anything other than that.
The NL average for the 0-2 count is .149/.158/.220.
Mets pitchers on 0-2 counts is .148/.151/.232
NL average for 1-2 count is .167/.175/.247
Mets pitchers on 1-2 counts is .178/.183/.267
The differences are negligible
Yesterday alone Gardner was 0-2 and then Beltran 0-2, which resulted in a hit and hr.
Are those season numbers? Because I imagine it’s higher in the past couple months.
Bounce one in the dirt? You mean waste a pitch!!?? Majority of pitchers now have that pitch count nonsense in the back of their minds. Hence, they try not to waste too many pitches.
Do you see Niese moving to the pen or left off the playoff roster?
Locks — Harvey, JDG, Syndergaard, Familia, Clippard, Reed
Likely — Colon, Verrett, Matz, Robles
How many pitchers do you take? You’ve got Gilmartin, Goeddel, Niese, Parnell and Torres and at least three of them aren’t making the roster.
I’m a Niese fan but right now I don’t put him on the roster. But these things have a way of working themselves out and we’ve still got two more weeks.
Starting : deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, Colon
Colon because of your research and TC will take the veteran
Relief: Reed (7th)-Clippard(8th)-Familia(9th) in every game that is close
Robles for the 6th inning or 10th inning
Matz for a tie game in the 11th warming up once.Torres next if healthy, then Niese. If the Mets get blown out early then Niese to eat up innings. Goedell takes Torres spot if he isn’t 100% healthy. 11 pitchers and 14 position players with Plawecki over Recker.
No way colon and Niese are on the 25 man roster together. Its either or, no? In addition you really believe Goedell will even make the 25? I don’t believe so.
I don’t think there is any doubt Matz makes the rotation. If anything, the Mets win behind him. I think Syndergaard will too. My prediction is that Colon gets selected as mop up/long relief or a start should it be required.
Here’s where I’m at presently:
Degrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, Matz
Colon, Gilmartin, Goeddell, Verrett or Torres, Robles, Reed, Clippard, Familia
The team loves Colon. He has hood-winked most people including the media for some inexplicable reason. I just hope that neither Parnell nor Niese are included.
I agree with all of the selections, but one: I would select Parnell over both Varrett and Torres. I didn’t want Parnell until I saw him pitch yesterday, throwing fastballs that hit 95 to 97. I think his arm is coming back right now.
Chris F – There is no way Collins carries 12 pitchers on the 25. I agree with everything you say, but if Torres is healthy I don’t believe Goeddell or Verrett make the roster.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that is a violation of our Comment Policy
If it were my decision, I’d go with 11 pitchers for the 5-game series.
Start: deGrom, Harvey, Noah, Matz
Pen: Familia, Clippard, Reed, Robles, Torres (if healthy), Colon, Niese
That leaves out: Gilmartin, Verrett, Goeddel.
I think you have to include Niese and Colon, especially over any of that bunch. I give Torres the nod for similar reasons, and I’ve seen him pitch very well on many occasions.
Chris, or any others, when you go to a 12-man staff, who do you leave off the roster? To me there are 14 very deserving position players. The only potential drops are: Lagares, Uribe, Johnson. I think they all have more value than an 8th reliever.
Niese should be the “Sid Fernandez” out of the pen. Just good enough to give Collins 2 or 3 innings and bridge the gap between Harvey? or Matz if necessary. Just need to give him a clean inning to start. I would like to think that Niese will take the place of the unnamed one in the pen. A definite addition by subtraction. Was wondering if the Met’s catch the Dodgers in the standings, who will start game 3 in L.A?
Hey Pete…. If Mets win home field Harvey will get the game 3 start in LA. And lets all prey this comes into fruition b/c Kershaw is more beatable when hes away from home. If Mets don’t get home field (they have the tie breaker so lets hope) than Harvey will start game 2 in LA.
Hey Gene that sounds reasonable. But just a thought here. Does Harvey go 5 innings and gets removed because he’s over his innings limit? Or does Boras and company allow him to go 7-8 innings? If it’s only 5 innings why not do a Bumgarner and have Harvey pitch innings 4-8 instead? Sounds radical I know. But the Dodgers will just try to extend their at-bats by getting Harvey to his pitch count faster and go after the bull pen. You can have Colon as your starter throwing his junk for 3 innings and blow away the Dodger hitters with Harvey coming in from the pen. I know. Never happen.
I’m curious if the Mets should consider running a shorter bullpen. So many of their recent wins have been due to their bench depth, and using Niese or another starter out of the bullpen in a long-relief role may provide a bit more stability to avoid the patchwork approach we’ve seen with the bullpen of late.